Ida lashing the Gulf Coast; no change in strength
Tropical Storm Ida is pounding the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle with high winds, huge waves, and heavy rain. At 6 pm EST, the Mobile, AL NWS office reported that coastal flooding had begun on Dauphin Island and at Fort Pickens in the Florida Panhandle. Surf heights of 5 - 8' are expected tonight on Dauphin Island as Ida storms ashore, and heights of 10 - 15' are possible from Fort Morgan, Alabama to Destin, Florida. Sustained winds of 40 mph were reported at buoy 42007 22 nm miles south of Biloxi, MS at 4:50 pm EST, and winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, were recorded at Dauphin Island, AL, at 7:06 pm EST.
Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the Mobile, AL radar shows that up to four inches of rain has fallen over the Louisiana bird's foot of the Mississippi River. Heavy rains are falling in MS, AL, and FL, and will exceed four inches in many locations.
The highest surface winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters since 3 pm have been 70 mph. Infrared satellite loops show that the big thunderstorm blow-up responsible for the small patch of hurricane-force winds recorded at 3 pm this afternoon has waned, and it is unlikely Ida has any hurricane-force winds.
The intensity forecast for Ida
There is no change to the intensity forecast for Ida. The high wind shear of 40 knots currently affecting the storm is forecast to increase to 50 knots by midnight, when the center of Ida should be crossing the coast. With Ida now over waters near 24°C, some weakening is to be expected before landfall. We can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado when Ida makes landfall, but the Storm Prediction Center Discussion maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and prospects for an appreciable severe weather threat appear low. Winds of tropical storm force will be extend from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle (Figure 2), but will not extend very far inland.
Figure 2. Cumulative wind forecast for Ida, issued by the HWRF model at 1 pm EDT today, 11/09/09. The HWRF forecasts that winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, dark green colors) will affect a swath of ocean from the tip of the Louisiana bird's foot to the coast near Alabama. Tropical storm force winds of 34 - 50 knots (39 - 57 mph) will affect a larger region, but will not penetrate very far inland. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Tides are almost 5.0' above normal at Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans), 2.2 feet above normal at Dauphin Island, AL, and 1.7 feet above normal at Pensacola, FL (Figure 3). NHC is calling for a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet above ground level, which is a reasonable forecast even if Ida weakens further. A large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time today and tomorrow, with battering waves on top of the surge likely to cause a significant coastal erosion event.
Figure 3. Observed vs. predicted water levels at three coastal stations. Top: Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans); middle: Dauphin Island, Alabama; bottom: Pensacola, FL. The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it was 4.9 feet above normal at 6 pm CST, 2.2 feet at Dauphin Island, and 1.7 feet at Pensacola. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Wundermap for the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
Long-range radar out of New Orleans, LA.
Coastal observations from the University of South Alabama.
Coastal observations from LSU.
Update on portlight.org charity errorts
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is gearing up to respond to any disaster needs from Tropical Storm Ida, and has sent a self-sufficient kitchen capable of serving 2000 meals per day to the Florida Panhandle region. They have another mobile kitchen ready to respond, if needed, as well as a truck filled with durable medical equipment and clinical/surgical supplies. Donations are welcome!
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I posted this on my update on 10-8 at 10:28am
At least it fell within my windwow....course my window was large enough...LOL
I have my doubts,High pressure is going to hang tough,and don't see any cold air the cards as of right now,but you keep on trying to get us a snowstorm.
surely moving East now..
I wouldn't even call the rain we got moderate, and the wind barely shook the leaves on the trees.
You must be an Aggie
Agree...suns coming out at times, here now.
70.7 degrees.
Sheri
ONE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS THE STRONGER SIGNAL FOR PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTHWARD DAYS 3 AND 4...A HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO FOR WINDS AND TIDES.
Short Range Graphics Loop
Preliminary Extended Forecast Graphics
I'ts like a normal low but with extra moisture.
Hey Flood, How ya doing?
Sheri
Still say the worst weather for the state of Flordia is yet to come today. Don't let your guards down too much...IDA has a mighty large butt, that appears to be getting larger...
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Basically two boundaries. The confluence zone extending S down the W coast of FL and a warm front which is really the northward moving moisture on the E side of Ida meeting up with the cooler, drier continental air moving south around the W side of Ida as the surface ridge builds in behind her. Marginal instability. But 30-40 knots of shear and adequate 0-3km helicity probably should be watched. SPC mentions the northern half of FL in their Day 1 Outlook.
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE WSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE NATION
THIS PERIOD AS BROAD...LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OFF THE BC/WA
CST. FARTHER SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
EXTRATROPICAL AS REMNANT CIRCULATION PHASES WITH AMPLIFYING
DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM.
...NERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW T.S. IDA BECOMING INCREASINGLY
ABSORBED WITHIN COMPLEX OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSES NOW PHASING
OVER THE LWR MS VLY. BAND OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SSW FROM IDA
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD LATER THIS MORNING
AS WLY COMPONENT TO MID LVL FLOW INCREASES WITH CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRESSIVE...LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER REGION.
THE CONVERGENCE BAND WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE NERN GULF AND PARTS OF NRN/WRN FL TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE
FEATURE GRADUALLY ASSUMES COLD FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. LOW LVL
WINDS AHEAD OF THE BAND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. IN ADDITION...
WIND PROFILES LIKELY WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO REMAIN
DISCRETE AND/OR MOVE OFF THE CONFLUENCE ZONE. BUT LOW LVL
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO POSE
A THREAT FOR LOW LVL SHOWER/STORM ROTATION...GIVEN AVAILABILITY OF
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIKELIHOOD FOR MODEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO...AND/OR A SPOT OR TWO OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND. ANY SUCH
THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG OR CLOSE TO THE FL CST...FROM THE
CSTL BEND AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...SSE TO THE TPA AREA BY EVE.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 11/10/2009
9:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10
Location: 30.6°N 87.6°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 3 PM CST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 30.6N 87.6W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 11/0000Z 30.9N 86.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 11/1200Z 30.7N 84.9W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 12/0000Z 30.0N 82.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 12/1200Z...ABSORBED
I'm alright...certaily doing better than you and your hubby...glad to hear you guys are alright
Howdy, rare...
Amen to that.
And I hope that is the final nail in the coffin for the gulf coast in 2009 for tropical systems.
turkey! Only get it once a year though. :( And I have to hold the ham I cook hostage til the switch is made. Lol. Mom can cook the heck out of a turkey. The only thing I can cook is ham. So I have a little bargaining power. Hee hee.
Thanks yeah where just waiting for the water to start going down so we can start cleaning, hopefully we don't get sick with this cool air and getting wet. Just all part of the deal i guess.
Sheri
The 3 headed little devil.....
http://www.islandempress.com/webcam/
For scale, there are couple of people walking on the beach
And to you and your family too.
Don't be a stranger in the off-season. Winter weather is as interesting as the tropics to me.
Yep, good thing this was not September. Could have been really bad....coulda woulda....tho
Yep,I couldn't agree more,and I think this year will be an interesting winter season.
Thank you, you take care. Have a good day.
sheri
Morning Storm
I can feel dr no's blood pressure beginning to boil!!!.
I doubt it.
IDA has made her big right turn.....may not go over land for a while.
Planning to leave for Pensacola soon, my old home.
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