Ida lashing the Gulf Coast; no change in strength
Tropical Storm Ida is pounding the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle with high winds, huge waves, and heavy rain. At 6 pm EST, the Mobile, AL NWS office reported that coastal flooding had begun on Dauphin Island and at Fort Pickens in the Florida Panhandle. Surf heights of 5 - 8' are expected tonight on Dauphin Island as Ida storms ashore, and heights of 10 - 15' are possible from Fort Morgan, Alabama to Destin, Florida. Sustained winds of 40 mph were reported at buoy 42007 22 nm miles south of Biloxi, MS at 4:50 pm EST, and winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, were recorded at Dauphin Island, AL, at 7:06 pm EST.
Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the Mobile, AL radar shows that up to four inches of rain has fallen over the Louisiana bird's foot of the Mississippi River. Heavy rains are falling in MS, AL, and FL, and will exceed four inches in many locations.
The highest surface winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters since 3 pm have been 70 mph. Infrared satellite loops show that the big thunderstorm blow-up responsible for the small patch of hurricane-force winds recorded at 3 pm this afternoon has waned, and it is unlikely Ida has any hurricane-force winds.
The intensity forecast for Ida
There is no change to the intensity forecast for Ida. The high wind shear of 40 knots currently affecting the storm is forecast to increase to 50 knots by midnight, when the center of Ida should be crossing the coast. With Ida now over waters near 24°C, some weakening is to be expected before landfall. We can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado when Ida makes landfall, but the Storm Prediction Center Discussion maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and prospects for an appreciable severe weather threat appear low. Winds of tropical storm force will be extend from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle (Figure 2), but will not extend very far inland.
Figure 2. Cumulative wind forecast for Ida, issued by the HWRF model at 1 pm EDT today, 11/09/09. The HWRF forecasts that winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, dark green colors) will affect a swath of ocean from the tip of the Louisiana bird's foot to the coast near Alabama. Tropical storm force winds of 34 - 50 knots (39 - 57 mph) will affect a larger region, but will not penetrate very far inland. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Tides are almost 5.0' above normal at Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans), 2.2 feet above normal at Dauphin Island, AL, and 1.7 feet above normal at Pensacola, FL (Figure 3). NHC is calling for a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet above ground level, which is a reasonable forecast even if Ida weakens further. A large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time today and tomorrow, with battering waves on top of the surge likely to cause a significant coastal erosion event.
Figure 3. Observed vs. predicted water levels at three coastal stations. Top: Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans); middle: Dauphin Island, Alabama; bottom: Pensacola, FL. The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it was 4.9 feet above normal at 6 pm CST, 2.2 feet at Dauphin Island, and 1.7 feet at Pensacola. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Wundermap for the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
Long-range radar out of New Orleans, LA.
Coastal observations from the University of South Alabama.
Coastal observations from LSU.
Update on portlight.org charity errorts
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is gearing up to respond to any disaster needs from Tropical Storm Ida, and has sent a self-sufficient kitchen capable of serving 2000 meals per day to the Florida Panhandle region. They have another mobile kitchen ready to respond, if needed, as well as a truck filled with durable medical equipment and clinical/surgical supplies. Donations are welcome!
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Cyclone ARB 03-2009 satellite imagery
How are the winds and water there right now, Cyber? I've got family down in PCB, but way too early to call and check on them.
in which this storm could have thrived producing a much more dangerous result.
Actually, I'm 12 hours away from finally completing a bachelor's in emergency management. Thought about going for either a masters or PhD in meteorology. Seems to be a good combination of degrees in my situation
You may apply with FEMA,,,,,up to $125k yearly ,plus travels accomodations ,,,,,
didn't see any damage but heard there was a downed power line on middle beach road sometime around 10 last night.
i hate it after a storm when ya gotta try and dodge obstacles to get to work
if i was over there i would feed yall some of this neeses country sausage and gravy with homemade buttermilk biscuits and a cup of steaming folgers
Hmmmm..interesting!
Ida been here earlier but I missed my turn:
I actually considered going to work for FEMA, but decided against it. Too much bureaucracy. I'm going to either stay on the state or local level with their respective OEP offices. The money with FEMA is nice, but the headaches aren't. LOL
from the FWB Daily News. And the rain has moved on out...lol.
That should make parents happy.
Family lives on Thomas Rd., right across the road from the beach. Any problems with rising water in that area that you know of?
6:00 AM CST Tue Nov 10
Location: 30.3°N 88.0°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA MADE ITS FIRST LANDFALL AROUND 540
AM CST...1140 UTC...ON DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
I'm guessing you're talking about FEMA since I know for a fact that our local OEP office is hiring. Not sure about the state.
Statement as of 2:55 AM EST on November 10, 2009
... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday
morning...
The Flash Flood Watch continues for
* portions of central Georgia... east central Georgia... north
central Georgia... northeast Georgia... northwest Georgia and west
central Georgia.
* Through Wednesday morning
* deep tropical moisture has spread across the southeast due to
Tropical Storm Ida. This will continue as the remnants of Ida
move east across the Florida Panhandle today. Widespread heavy
rainfall totaling 3 to 5 inches... with locally higher amounts up
to 8 inches... are possible over much of north and central
Georgia by tonight and early Wednesday.
* Creeks and streams will respond to the rain with fairly rapid
rises expected... especially in the mountains and across the
Atlanta Metro area. Minor to moderate flooding is likely on some
small to medium sized creeks and rivers... and may eventually
spread to the larger river systems. With autumn in full
swing... the trees across north and central Georgia have been
dropping their leaves. This could lead to storm drains becoming
clogged... resulting in street flooding.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
Now is the time to take any necessary precautions to protect life
and property... before any flooding begins.
You should monitor NOAA Weather Radio or commercial radio and
television for the latest information on this developing weather
situation... along with any possible warnings that may be issued.
Wind Advisory
Statement as of 2:55 AM EST on November 10, 2009
... Wind Advisory in effect from 6 am this morning to 7 am EST
Wednesday...
The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect from 6 am this morning to 7 am EST
Wednesday for all of north and central Georgia.
Tropical Storm Ida will make landfall this morning along the
central Gulf Coast... and the remnants of the storm will move east
across the Florida Panhandle. An area of strong high pressure over
the western Atlantic will help to increase the pressure
gradient... and thus the winds... over the southeast. Winds of 15
to 25 mph... with gusts up to 35 mph will be possible through the
day. Additionally... as widespread rain continues today... it may
not take very strong winds for trees to begin to fall.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Wind Advisory means that winds of 20 to 35 mph are expected.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
LOL - I guess the main posters lost power?
Still windy in South Florida, although no rain. Is someone trying to make up for lost time during the "peak" of the season, since there is now a persistent yellow circle in the Atlnatic?
Got a couple of inches of rain off of it. Small branches down in my yard. Their easily burnable when it dries out.
Gusts to maybe 35-40 mph. That's it.
Now the cooler, drier weather will move in starting tonight.:)
Nice!
No more...it's turning NE and not moving north, crowd. That eliminates 95% of the arguing on here.
497 hours...
21 minutes...and it's over.
2 weeks...2 days and turkey and dressing awaits my belly.
just one question, though...why does everyone like turkey so much? i know it's traditional, but it's not like the bird is really that great (i know, i know...this is heresy!). my mother-in-law ruined us with prime rib one Thanksgiving...never wanted turkey since! LOL
Couldn't agree more!!! I have been doing pull pork for the last few years and people love it!
Just hoping for cooler temps here in SFL for the feast. I am sure Dakster will agree.
I love the dark turkey meat. It tastes good.
Throw in some dressing, with cranberry sauce...omg...soooo good.
Just looking at the latest ECMWF run. Looks like late next week....a cool down...maybe down to central and possibly south Florida.
Bring it on, just bring it with rain in tow. We need one or two soakers before dry season sets in.
Still hoping it will bring several buckets of rain to NE Florida.
Their forecast for Thursday...
Thursday
Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph near the coast and 10 to 15 mph inland.
As strange as this season has been, including the mid season transition from La Nina to El Nino... it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see the season spill over into December as it did a few years back. Just keep an eye on the placement of the jet stream over the next seven weeks... Mother nature is full of surprises.
70% today...80% tonight...60% Wednesday for Jacksonville,FL.
Agree..I thought the season was over a month ago.
Wrong.
White meat is too dry.
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