Ida lashing the Gulf Coast; no change in strength
Tropical Storm Ida is pounding the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle with high winds, huge waves, and heavy rain. At 6 pm EST, the Mobile, AL NWS office reported that coastal flooding had begun on Dauphin Island and at Fort Pickens in the Florida Panhandle. Surf heights of 5 - 8' are expected tonight on Dauphin Island as Ida storms ashore, and heights of 10 - 15' are possible from Fort Morgan, Alabama to Destin, Florida. Sustained winds of 40 mph were reported at buoy 42007 22 nm miles south of Biloxi, MS at 4:50 pm EST, and winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, were recorded at Dauphin Island, AL, at 7:06 pm EST.
Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the Mobile, AL radar shows that up to four inches of rain has fallen over the Louisiana bird's foot of the Mississippi River. Heavy rains are falling in MS, AL, and FL, and will exceed four inches in many locations.
The highest surface winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters since 3 pm have been 70 mph. Infrared satellite loops show that the big thunderstorm blow-up responsible for the small patch of hurricane-force winds recorded at 3 pm this afternoon has waned, and it is unlikely Ida has any hurricane-force winds.
The intensity forecast for Ida
There is no change to the intensity forecast for Ida. The high wind shear of 40 knots currently affecting the storm is forecast to increase to 50 knots by midnight, when the center of Ida should be crossing the coast. With Ida now over waters near 24°C, some weakening is to be expected before landfall. We can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado when Ida makes landfall, but the Storm Prediction Center Discussion maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and prospects for an appreciable severe weather threat appear low. Winds of tropical storm force will be extend from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle (Figure 2), but will not extend very far inland.
Figure 2. Cumulative wind forecast for Ida, issued by the HWRF model at 1 pm EDT today, 11/09/09. The HWRF forecasts that winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, dark green colors) will affect a swath of ocean from the tip of the Louisiana bird's foot to the coast near Alabama. Tropical storm force winds of 34 - 50 knots (39 - 57 mph) will affect a larger region, but will not penetrate very far inland. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Tides are almost 5.0' above normal at Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans), 2.2 feet above normal at Dauphin Island, AL, and 1.7 feet above normal at Pensacola, FL (Figure 3). NHC is calling for a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet above ground level, which is a reasonable forecast even if Ida weakens further. A large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time today and tomorrow, with battering waves on top of the surge likely to cause a significant coastal erosion event.
Figure 3. Observed vs. predicted water levels at three coastal stations. Top: Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans); middle: Dauphin Island, Alabama; bottom: Pensacola, FL. The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it was 4.9 feet above normal at 6 pm CST, 2.2 feet at Dauphin Island, and 1.7 feet at Pensacola. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Wundermap for the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
Long-range radar out of New Orleans, LA.
Coastal observations from the University of South Alabama.
Coastal observations from LSU.
Update on portlight.org charity errorts
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is gearing up to respond to any disaster needs from Tropical Storm Ida, and has sent a self-sufficient kitchen capable of serving 2000 meals per day to the Florida Panhandle region. They have another mobile kitchen ready to respond, if needed, as well as a truck filled with durable medical equipment and clinical/surgical supplies. Donations are welcome!
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Water has risen some, it will rise more as we near high tide.
I dread seeing the damage along the Holiday Isle shoreline in Destin... the erosion was already taking its toll on homes & a couple of condo buildings this morning.
lol..thinking I may need my winter attire tomorrow!..lol
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
What is your wind direction??
1. November can and does form Cat 2 Hurricanes in the Western Atlantic Basin
2.A untapped Seasonal GOM SST ,can and will support a Cat 2 and possibly Higher Cane in the Month of November.
3.The NHC continues to improve in Track forecasts,but struggles still with the Science and art of intensity.
4.Systems can and often do defy the best forecasts available,
5.Be thankful its not August nor September too, and folks arent battling a 9 Hour Eyewall night passage.
Yes it is. It's out of the E here now. Got blasted when I went out the front door.
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
25.1N/60.2W
just putting it out there
We are getting gusts of about 20mph now... downpouring, heavy rainfall.
wind chill from a tropical system
whoda thunk it
From my limited experience with tropical storms, that's the way it usually works. The rain bands bring the winds to surface.
I don't know why, but it sure seems to happen that way.
It has been raining non-stop for over 12 hours in Pensacola. Rain at my house is over 3 inches, and still climbing.
I just got back from the point on lake Pontchartrain and it was extremely cold gusts up to 31 mph on the hand held anemometer also
NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI
pretty much the same here. NHC is not used to hurricanes in the gulf in nov as there have not bee many.
here is latest storm totals anmin loop piling up fast
The downpours may be over but there is still more coming...
Radar link
Diamondhead, MS.
Regardless, Ida's the one of the two to make it into the gulf.
I was referring to Pcola, but its actually holding its own here now as well. Looks like those bands might be coming ashore for a while longer for both of us. Be safe...
near Perdido Key FL
that is too far north. HH pointing at 29N.
1. Inland flooding in Georgia
2. Tail whipping through SFLA
3. Ida's "perfect" remnants re-intensifying, and moving up the east coast as an express, hitting NYC-Cape Cod.
.
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For the immediate future, my thoughts are with those along the north gulf coast. Doesn't look too bad at the moment, but y'all be safe.
A naked swirl (by satellite cloud tops and radar anyway) can still have a tight core of winds. And that core might be in the middle of the dearth of data we have from the MS river and the Mississippi sound and be so small it goes undetected by surface obs.
I was off on that. I can take it.
You guys east of Bay St. Louis still have your max pending.
does that really have a chance? last STS prospect crashed and burned.
From what direction?
020
It looks like the rain to the south has weakened, but it redevelops right at shore. Rainfall now approaching 3.5 inches...
1. Possible
2. Likely
3. Less Likely
4. Yes...be safe
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
24.8N/60.1W
Those rains are really piling up there appears to be a psuedo-warm front right near the coast, expect dramatic wind increase once that heads inland
Its incredible how many storms I went through in 18 years of life. Two majors (Andrew, Wilma) some famous minimal hurricanes (Irene, Katrina) and of course the close calls with Frances and Jeanne. Fay is one i'll remember for two things, making land fall so far south and dropping 5 inches of rain in 2 hours 500 miles north of me.
Naaa phoenix erm i mean Joaquin, won't be "rapping" up into said name anytime soon.
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