Ida lashing the Gulf Coast; no change in strength
Tropical Storm Ida is pounding the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle with high winds, huge waves, and heavy rain. At 6 pm EST, the Mobile, AL NWS office reported that coastal flooding had begun on Dauphin Island and at Fort Pickens in the Florida Panhandle. Surf heights of 5 - 8' are expected tonight on Dauphin Island as Ida storms ashore, and heights of 10 - 15' are possible from Fort Morgan, Alabama to Destin, Florida. Sustained winds of 40 mph were reported at buoy 42007 22 nm miles south of Biloxi, MS at 4:50 pm EST, and winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, were recorded at Dauphin Island, AL, at 7:06 pm EST.
Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the Mobile, AL radar shows that up to four inches of rain has fallen over the Louisiana bird's foot of the Mississippi River. Heavy rains are falling in MS, AL, and FL, and will exceed four inches in many locations.
The highest surface winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters since 3 pm have been 70 mph. Infrared satellite loops show that the big thunderstorm blow-up responsible for the small patch of hurricane-force winds recorded at 3 pm this afternoon has waned, and it is unlikely Ida has any hurricane-force winds.
The intensity forecast for Ida
There is no change to the intensity forecast for Ida. The high wind shear of 40 knots currently affecting the storm is forecast to increase to 50 knots by midnight, when the center of Ida should be crossing the coast. With Ida now over waters near 24°C, some weakening is to be expected before landfall. We can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado when Ida makes landfall, but the Storm Prediction Center Discussion maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and prospects for an appreciable severe weather threat appear low. Winds of tropical storm force will be extend from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle (Figure 2), but will not extend very far inland.
Figure 2. Cumulative wind forecast for Ida, issued by the HWRF model at 1 pm EDT today, 11/09/09. The HWRF forecasts that winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, dark green colors) will affect a swath of ocean from the tip of the Louisiana bird's foot to the coast near Alabama. Tropical storm force winds of 34 - 50 knots (39 - 57 mph) will affect a larger region, but will not penetrate very far inland. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Tides are almost 5.0' above normal at Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans), 2.2 feet above normal at Dauphin Island, AL, and 1.7 feet above normal at Pensacola, FL (Figure 3). NHC is calling for a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet above ground level, which is a reasonable forecast even if Ida weakens further. A large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time today and tomorrow, with battering waves on top of the surge likely to cause a significant coastal erosion event.
Figure 3. Observed vs. predicted water levels at three coastal stations. Top: Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans); middle: Dauphin Island, Alabama; bottom: Pensacola, FL. The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it was 4.9 feet above normal at 6 pm CST, 2.2 feet at Dauphin Island, and 1.7 feet at Pensacola. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Wundermap for the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
Long-range radar out of New Orleans, LA.
Coastal observations from the University of South Alabama.
Coastal observations from LSU.
Update on portlight.org charity errorts
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is gearing up to respond to any disaster needs from Tropical Storm Ida, and has sent a self-sufficient kitchen capable of serving 2000 meals per day to the Florida Panhandle region. They have another mobile kitchen ready to respond, if needed, as well as a truck filled with durable medical equipment and clinical/surgical supplies. Donations are welcome!
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI
Still a lack of S wind anywhere that I can find. Very odd.
Mobile, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI
Reflects some E component as compared to same radar from an hour ago.
Sure looks like you said above now..the forcing must be the driver.
Inland?
Nope way out to sea still. It will be awhile before we see a shift in MS. At least a few hours if not more. The center has kinda stalled out a bit and everything north is seeing winds from 350-040.
Seems about right for the center of circ at Cat and Ship Island... and it is definitely NNE here.
Yea picking up too here in Lyman...pressure on my weather station dropping fast and winds really picking up
check out the building high pressure .. that will only further the increase in winds ... Ida isn't,imo, purely tropical anymore and it could be more detrimental that way as baroclinic forcing becomes more of a player in the outcome... the longer Ida maintains a somewhat lower pressure and is just offshore, that high has plans to tighten up that gradient looks like ...
edit: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_wspd.html expanding windfield.
I am aware there are S winds off shore. however, there has been an absence of S winds all night on the East side of the storm which is very unusual. The E and NE Quads have had winds 010 - 060.
Thats the way Ida seems to be going and the Beaches are gonna get that south Wind tomorrow too,and areas inland some
Pascagoula 29.81 in
Keesler AFB 29.80 in
Gulfport 29.82 in
my weather station has 29.81 in and weather stations around the area are in the same ball park.
Updated: 1 sec ago
65.6 °F
Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 66 °F
Wind: 0.0 mphfrom the NNW
Wind Gust: 28.0 mph
Pressure: 29.76 in (Rising)
Thats gonna bring a lotta rain to somebody tonight.
Well maybe they are finally going to make it on shore. so far no reports of S wind in AL.
doesn't matter. I expected and forecasted that couple days ago. what's important is the pressure gradient. Ida, imo, was never a threat as a tropical system. As an extratropical low with an approaching front and associated high, if the pressure remains low the winds could still cause an issue and for an extended period of time. Ida needed to tap the energy associated with the approaching front and it looks like she's doing it atleast to some degree... "Ida" is no longer a threat ... what's left of her merging into a nontropical low is. ( to some degree )
You check ob from daulphin island...upper level winds at 4K feet for HH was 104 degrees.
Yes it is. And my rain gauge decided to stop communicating with the control panel today. Perfect timing.
Station SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA
Conditions at SHBL1 as of
(9:42 pm CST on 11/09/2009)
0342 GMT on 11/10/2009:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 34.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 42.9 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.77 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 66.6 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 67.5 °F
Just in time to add to the tide situation.
Station PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS
The dew point is either rounded off or it is higher than the temperature! o_O
quite possible. The deteriorating LLC may never come ashore.
that is fine with me just as long as the rain stops!..lol
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