Ida lashing the Gulf Coast; no change in strength
Tropical Storm Ida is pounding the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle with high winds, huge waves, and heavy rain. At 6 pm EST, the Mobile, AL NWS office reported that coastal flooding had begun on Dauphin Island and at Fort Pickens in the Florida Panhandle. Surf heights of 5 - 8' are expected tonight on Dauphin Island as Ida storms ashore, and heights of 10 - 15' are possible from Fort Morgan, Alabama to Destin, Florida. Sustained winds of 40 mph were reported at buoy 42007 22 nm miles south of Biloxi, MS at 4:50 pm EST, and winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, were recorded at Dauphin Island, AL, at 7:06 pm EST.
Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the Mobile, AL radar shows that up to four inches of rain has fallen over the Louisiana bird's foot of the Mississippi River. Heavy rains are falling in MS, AL, and FL, and will exceed four inches in many locations.
The highest surface winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters since 3 pm have been 70 mph. Infrared satellite loops show that the big thunderstorm blow-up responsible for the small patch of hurricane-force winds recorded at 3 pm this afternoon has waned, and it is unlikely Ida has any hurricane-force winds.
The intensity forecast for Ida
There is no change to the intensity forecast for Ida. The high wind shear of 40 knots currently affecting the storm is forecast to increase to 50 knots by midnight, when the center of Ida should be crossing the coast. With Ida now over waters near 24°C, some weakening is to be expected before landfall. We can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado when Ida makes landfall, but the Storm Prediction Center Discussion maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and prospects for an appreciable severe weather threat appear low. Winds of tropical storm force will be extend from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle (Figure 2), but will not extend very far inland.
Figure 2. Cumulative wind forecast for Ida, issued by the HWRF model at 1 pm EDT today, 11/09/09. The HWRF forecasts that winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, dark green colors) will affect a swath of ocean from the tip of the Louisiana bird's foot to the coast near Alabama. Tropical storm force winds of 34 - 50 knots (39 - 57 mph) will affect a larger region, but will not penetrate very far inland. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.
The storm surge forecast for Ida
Tides are almost 5.0' above normal at Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans), 2.2 feet above normal at Dauphin Island, AL, and 1.7 feet above normal at Pensacola, FL (Figure 3). NHC is calling for a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet above ground level, which is a reasonable forecast even if Ida weakens further. A large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time today and tomorrow, with battering waves on top of the surge likely to cause a significant coastal erosion event.
Figure 3. Observed vs. predicted water levels at three coastal stations. Top: Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans); middle: Dauphin Island, Alabama; bottom: Pensacola, FL. The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it was 4.9 feet above normal at 6 pm CST, 2.2 feet at Dauphin Island, and 1.7 feet at Pensacola. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.
Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Wundermap for the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
Long-range radar out of New Orleans, LA.
Coastal observations from the University of South Alabama.
Coastal observations from LSU.
Update on portlight.org charity errorts
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is gearing up to respond to any disaster needs from Tropical Storm Ida, and has sent a self-sufficient kitchen capable of serving 2000 meals per day to the Florida Panhandle region. They have another mobile kitchen ready to respond, if needed, as well as a truck filled with durable medical equipment and clinical/surgical supplies. Donations are welcome!
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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The portlight.org disaster relief charity is gearing up to respond to any disaster needs from Tropical Storm Ida, and has sent a self-sufficient kitchen capable of serving 2000 meals per day to the Florida Panhandle region. They have another mobile kitchen ready to respond, if needed, as well as a truck filled with durable medical equipment and clinical/surgical supplies.
18Z GFS says this turns into a bigger sized storm when it pops out your way along the eastern US. Tropical transformed to Nor-easter?!! Is Ida a cross-dresser? lol
From JAX NWS:
THURSDAY...LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACRS THE FORECAST AREA..
ok, now i am so confused....what are they talking about? i thought the low was supposed to head north, transitioning into a decent nor'easter?
I will pray for your area too.
A small gradient wind feature not necessarily part of Ida's windfield and or a higher than usual inflow angle associated more with an extra-trop system than a TC?
Captured by the H*Wind analysis:
Gradients and pressure analysis show the potential for ENE winds here (though dated and with Ida not placed well):
I think the broader trough is taking over...and Ida isn't capable of true cyclostrophic winds to the NE.
(That took a while, my internet is flaky at the moment...uploads will not work)
Awesome! Thanks for the explanation. First time dealing with the extra trpocal type. The winds all over the Gulf Coast East of Ida are all out of the North. Very interesting and thanks again
In response to question on previous:
Eh, nevermind.
lol...I agree aqua..
go canes beat UNC
+RA BR? that would be heavy rain with mist which is a common ob with heavy rain because the mist tends to aid in reduction of visibility which is bad news for aircraft...recon headed to texas.
Me three!!
Its the thoughts and sentiments that count, btw! :)
Thanks for that ... it helps me understand what I am seeing with the winds.
Methinks H*Wind missed a little...just a little. Could be overdoing land roughness or height reduction.
thanks for the explanation..but still think that it is funny terminology..hate it for any aircraft though.
TWC said that the highest winds are coming in
(Best viewed full size, click!)
Oh that was really ugly and uncalled for
Thanks for the explanation! Its kinda neat the things I've learned from the WUBA bloggers throughout the years! Glad we have this forum available to share and help others! Thanks! :)
Next they are going claim that winds around a TC in northern hemisphere spin counter-clockwise. After some research...
(this is not inclusive of Dr. Lyons)
I was just logging in when the blog jumped.
I think I was caught in a worm-hole or something.
I'm a little dizzy and slightly confused........wait...that's normal.
going home...they evacuated to texas.
I personally believe IDA will hit pensacola, or around there
Have you looked at your user ID recently??? LOL
please review my post #4? I'm stymied.
I'm still thinking more like Ivan's path and right down the FL/AL border. Just something about this Ida, it reminds me a little bit of Ivan -- maybe Ivan's baby sister? ;)
I called this 5 days ago..tail of a front vs a tropical wave
That's like three trips to WalMart in one day.
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
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