Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting homelesswanderer:


Ok. Thank you. :)

CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

Hope this helps. I bookmarked it for reference.

Quoting stormpetrol:
I see the NHC "appears " still not to be impressed with the Caribbean Blob.

They might not be but I sure am. We have had almost 6" of rain. What a blessing.

The 06 GFS seems to keep it in the Caribbean and loses it around 240hrs best I can tell. That is a looong time in more or less the same place. That wouldn't be good either.

Quoting homelesswanderer:
Wow! The Caribbean is baking. The CMC is trying to send this to you Storm. :( Hope not. How strong would a 988 low be?

988 translates to a CAT1 hurricane

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

Hope this helps. I bookmarked it for reference.

Thank you. I pasted that in a safe place. :) I never could figure those out.

Quoting jipmg:


988 translates to a CAT1 hurricane

Thank you. :)

stormwatcherCI got banned??? Why what happened? I was just talking to him/her. :(

Quoting StormW:


I'm ready for it Stef.

Oh Ok. Lol. I feel a little better knowing that's only showing a cat 1.

lowest pressure that I could find with the Caribbean blob is 1008 mb at San Andres, Colombia.

Link

However, area of maximum vorticity at 850 mb is a bit wsw of that island, and may be just offshore.

Link

Recon on their way to Rick, think it will take ~4 hours to get there.

Quoting Weather456:
BBL,

Tropical Update

Tropical depression may form later this week

Thanks for the observations 456.As usual, a very clear synopsis on our area of interest here.

Quoting leftovers:
once this sw carib system breaks off from the cold front it should develop going to be a soaker not the time for a cancun trip

right over the highest OHC of the atlantic

Quoting SykKid:
Seasons over.

at
11 59 59 pm nov 30 2009

waitin on the gom rtn flow

wow iam a blog killer

quiet in here this am

KOG - I think I just heard a pin drop.

may have

it's so quiet you could here a mouse dropping...
or something like that.

anyway off to work bbl at lunch

So Beell, are the Rick leftovers going to bring Texas showers of blessing?

I have to say I've been checking in during breaks from work and was starting to think there was a problem with the site as there was so little activity in the blog.

Quoting tornadofan:
So Beell, are the Rick leftovers going to bring Texas showers of blessing?

Looks like...

BY WEDNESDAY...ADVECTING PACIFIC CLOUDS...FROM THE LANDFALLED
HURRICANE RICK...WILL AUGMENT THE INCOMING GULF MOISTURE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY.

Morning everyone! Just thought I would drop in so that you all have something to read. Is is Monday morning blues; where is everone?

1122. tornadofan 1:15 PM GMT on October 19, 2009
So Beell, are the Rick leftovers going to bring Texas showers of blessing?


I think you and I have consensus on that, tf.
A repeat of the last front maybe. Stalls along the coast and then as high pressure builds behind, a push farther offshore. Not looking to get as far and as fast to the south as the current front. The boundary entering the MDR near Bermuda and running to the SW over the Yucatan.

Only a 1017mb surface high over the NE Gulf states by next weekend.

Anyway a short term stall along the coast coincident with Rick Remains should bless us well.

Good Morning all.

I see we have other forecast models onboard now

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I see we have other forecast models onboard now

link

GFS and CMC on board this morning with forming a low in the SW Caribbean. We'll have to see if the shear values drop enough in the coming week over the Gulf and Yucatan channel to allow a storm to come north.

Quoting jipmg:


link

I just woke up and am going by what 456 said in his blog lol, brb

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
GFS and CMC on board this morning with forming a low in the SW Caribbean. We'll have to see if the shear values drop enough in the coming week over the Gulf and Yucatan channel to allow a storm to come north.

Same thing that was said hours ago, lol

Good evening one and all.

Quoting jipmg:


Same thing that was said hours ago, lol

Ok. That's fine. Read it again.

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I see we have other forecast models onboard now

the more models that come on board the more this thing will develop

456 when is the wind shear to the N of this possible, TC in the days to come, suppossed to decrease?

Quoting Grothar:
Morning everyone! Just thought I would drop in so that you all have something to read. Is is Monday morning blues; where is everone?

Stayed up too late watching weather systems & blog -- did you get any sleep? (gulps coffee, head nods, even doggys are sleeping in here.)

850mb Vorticity increasing near Nicaragua:

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