Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Super Hurricane Rick the 2nd strongest hurricane ever recorded in Eastern Pacific
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 03:27 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009 +4
Hurricane Rick intensified in dramatic fashion yesterday into the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. Truly deserving of the title "Super Hurricane", Rick grew into a monstrous Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 906 mb early this morning. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970. Meteorologists like to talk about a hurricane's Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI), the theoretical upper limit of a hurricane's intensification given the prevailing ocean heat content and atmospheric stability and moisture. Less than 5% of all hurricane reach their MPI, due to wind shear, interaction with land, entrainment of dry air, or other factors. Hurricane Rick was able to take advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification--light wind shear, high ocean heat content, and plenty of mid-level atmospheric moisture--to reach its MPI and intensify into one of the strongest and most spectacular tropical cyclones ever recorded. The last tropical cyclone to attain Rick's intensity was Australia's Cyclone Monica of 2006, which also had 180 mph winds. Only nine Atlantic hurricanes in recorded history have been stronger than Rick.


Figure 1.Hurricane Rick at peak intensity on Sunday morning, October 18, 2009: 180 mph winds and a central pressure of 905 mb.

Wind shear will gradually increase and ocean heat content decrease over the next few days as Rick approaches Baja, and the hurricane should weaken considerably before landfall on Wednesday. The latest GFDL model run puts Rick at Category 2 strength, but Rick could still be a major Category 3 hurricane at landfall, as predicted by the HWRF model. More rapid weakening into a Category 1 hurricane is also a distinct possibility, and the official NHC intensity forecast of a Category 2 forecast at landfall is a good middle-of-the-road forecast. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Thursday, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Saturday, possibly leading to heavy rains there next weekend.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major catastrophe for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit is stalled out over the Philippine Sea east of northern Luzon Island in the Philippines, but is expected to resume a westerly track towards the Philippines on Monday. Depending upon whether the storm makes landfall in northern Luzon or not, Lupit (the Filipino word for cruel) has the potential to live up to its name if it makes landfall as a major typhoon on Thursday, as currently forecast. A week ago, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit would bring another 12+ inches of rain to the already-soaked soils of the region, creating a major catastrophe. However, there is hope that storm's current slow and erratic movement will carry Lupit far enough north that the typhoon will miss the Philippines.

Early snow in Northeast U.S. sets records
This weekend's snowstorm in the Northeast set records for the earliest date with an inch of snow in Binghamton, Ithaca and Olean in New York and Altoona and State College in Pennsylvania. State College received 4.8 inches of snow from the storm, and snow amounts as high as ten inches were recorded in the surrounding mountains.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, there have been some modest flare-ups of heavy thunderstorm clusters in the extreme Southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Panama over the past day. This activity has been too disorganized and limited in extent to prove a threat to develop. However, for the past three days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the eventual development of a tropical storm in this region, sometime during the period October 23 - 25. The GFS and NOGAPS models have also been hinting that conditions may become favorable for tropical storm formation in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we should anticipate the possibility of a late-season tropical storm forming. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Stay tuned.

Jeff Masters
Pink Snow (CecileWNC)
The first dusting of snow in the Blue Ridge Mountains today!
Pink Snow
The Snowy Poconos (robin57)
Woke up and saw SNOW everywhere ....it is too early but we have to make the best out of the situation and I did just that ...I went picture taking today ENJOY my friends So i hope you like my have fall half winter photo
The Snowy Poconos
Penn State, Bryce Jordan Center (SoggyWaffles)
Penn State, Bryce Jordan Center
Categories: Hurricane
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401. aquak9 10:10 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting IKE:


No...not him.

tacoman.


sorry, Ike, my mistake.
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 24996
402. Cavin Rawlins 10:10 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting AtlantaMET:
Weather456,

You have to be kidding me. Are you supporting that thing - WeatherStudent?


Life is too short to stress on the little things, like whatever anybody has against WS.
Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
403. IKE 10:10 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Talk about a cyber interrgation. my fellow friends, i'll be back later on tonight, when hopefully by then, the agitated tides of controversy have calmed down. bye, folks.

Another dead giveaway post.
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
404. IKE 10:11 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting aquak9:


sorry, Ike, my mistake.


It's all good....
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
405. SevereHurricane 10:11 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting IKE:
Talk about a cyber interrgation. my fellow friends, i'll be back later on tonight, when hopefully by then, the agitated tides of controversy have calmed down. bye, folks.

Another dead giveaway post.


Its so obvious just by his writing style.
Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
406. kmanislander 10:13 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Reminds me of all the alter egos of Inspector Clouseau LOL

Anyway , have to get the old smoker grill fired up. It's rib eye time again !!

Catch you all later.
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
407. IKE 10:14 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting kmanislander:
Reminds me of all the alter egos of Inspector Clouseau LOL

Anyway , have to get the old smoker grill fired up. It's rib eye time again !!

Catch you all later.


Medium-rare for me please.

TIA!
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
408. kingzfan104 10:14 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
409. SevereHurricane 10:14 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
How are you liking this fall weather Ike? Its been a beautiful Weekend in good ole New Orleans. Even better with a Saints win.
Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
410. kmanislander 10:15 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting IKE:


Medium-rare for me please.

TIA!


No problem. Will eat it for you as well LOL
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
411. Cavin Rawlins 10:16 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Frankly, I suspected MET101 was WS a while back but kept it on a down low because it's not something that should matter. I don't think anybody here would like to be in WS shoes.
Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
412. IKE 10:16 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting SevereHurricane:
How are you liking this fall weather Ike? Its been a beautiful Weekend in good ole New Orleans. Even better with a Saints win.


Great weather...Saints are an offensive machine.


Quoting kmanislander:


No problem. Will eat it for you as well LOL


LOL.
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
413. BenBIogger 10:16 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
I'm WeatherStudent...
Member Since: Marzo 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
414. jipmg 10:17 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
I wonder, do you guys think it will be colder than forecasted in miami for the morning LOW?

I mean the forecast was 77 for the high, and yet we only got to 71.. the forecast low was 56, so I suspect 54 or lower.. I honestly don't know
415. KoritheMan 10:18 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting SevereHurricane:
How are you liking this fall weather Ike? Its been a beautiful Weekend in good ole New Orleans. Even better with a Saints win.


I'm in Prairieville, and I'm not used to the cold air yet -- Louisiana is typically so mild, that when the cold does finally arrive, it takes a little getting used to.

This morning, it was like 43F.

I'm enjoying it, since it's a welcome change from the oppressive heat we've been getting, but nonetheless...
Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418
416. tornadodude 10:18 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting BenBIogger:
I'm WeatherStudent...


no im Spartacus
Member Since: Giugno 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816
417. SevereHurricane 10:19 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting IKE:


Great weather...Saints are an offensive machine.




LOL.


Yea their doing great. And man the Dome was a rockin!
Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
418. KoritheMan 10:19 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting jipmg:
I wonder, do you guys think it will be colder than forecasted in miami for the morning LOW?

I mean the forecast was 77 for the high, and yet we only got to 71.. the forecast low was 56, so I suspect 54 or lower.. I honestly don't know


That depends. Is there any cloud cover forecast tonight? Cloud cover tends to limit the amount of cooling that can take place. If it ends up being cloudy, even the forecast of 56F may end up being busted.
Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418
419. IKE 10:20 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Yea their doing great. And man the Dome was a rockin!


Speaking of rocking....

New England 52
Tennessee 0. Third quarter.
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
420. PcolaDan 10:20 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting Weather456:
I also suspect people have him on ignore for the wrong reasons. Usually you put someone on ignore for disrupting the blog not because you have some unrelated bias against him.


As much as I respect your knowledge of weather and am excited for your beginning of what I feel will be a long and interesting career, you have to have seen him go on his tirades and start threatening to have people banned, go on name calling sprees, etc. Admittedly we poked fun at him, but it was so easy. But then the other side of him would come out, and usually for no apparent reason. That is what had him being ignored. Ask presslord.
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6008
421. SevereHurricane 10:21 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm in Prairieville, and I'm not used to the cold air yet -- Louisiana is typically so mild, that when the cold does finally arrive, it takes a little getting used to.

This morning, it was like 43F.

I'm enjoying it, since it's a welcome change from the oppressive heat we've been getting, but nonetheless...


I'm in Metairie and I am enjoying every minute of it while it lasts. I have the windows open in my room and watching some football. Too bad this fantastic weather will be gone by mid-week.
Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
422. tornadodude 10:21 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting IKE:


Speaking of rocking....

New England 52
Tennessee 0. Third quarter.


Tom Brady has been insane this game!
Member Since: Giugno 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816
423. IKE 10:21 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting tornadodude:


Tom Brady has been insane this game!


They just switched to the Jets/Buffalo here in Florida.
Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
424. SevereHurricane 10:22 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting IKE:


Speaking of rocking....

New England 52
Tennessee 0. Third quarter.


Yea I was watching Ike. CBS just changed the game to the Jets/Buffalo Game.
Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
425. tornadodude 10:22 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting IKE:


They just switched to the Jets/Buffalo here in Florida.


yeah same here :P
Member Since: Giugno 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816
426. KoritheMan 10:23 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I'm in Metairie and I am enjoying every minute of it while it lasts. I have the windows open in my room and watching some football. Too bad this fantastic weather will be gone by mid-week.


I hope we get more snow this year. :D
Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418
427. SevereHurricane 10:24 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting KoritheMan:


I hope we get more snow this year. :D


Me too. Accujoke thinks so.
Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
428. Cavin Rawlins 10:24 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting PcolaDan:


AS much as I respect your knowledge of weather and am excited for your beginning of what I feel will be a long and interesting career, you have to have seen him go on his tirades and start threatening to have people banned, go on name calling sprees, etc. Admittedly we poked fun at him, but it was so easy. But then the other side of him would come out, and usually for no apparent reason. That is what had him being ignored. Ask presslord.


Maybe that's it, I was not here at the time.

But from what I heard, what he did was wrong, but he has attempted to forget and put it behind him, so why cant we, the more attention we give him is only making him worst and instead of "humiliating" tell him where he is wrong and "straighten" him out. Not saying you do, but in general.
Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
429. IKE 10:25 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Yea I was watching Ike. CBS just changed the game to the Jets/Buffalo Game.


Poor Jeff Fisher...his 0-5(soon-to-be 0-6), football team quit on him in this one.

18Z GFS shows the remnants of Rick getting drawn into the next trough in the east. Nothing in the Caribbean through 144 hours.

Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044
430. KoritheMan 10:26 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Me too. Accujoke thinks so.


To be fair, they may be on to something. El Nino is present this year, and it tends to bring cooler and wetter weather to the Gulf Coast states.

If you recall, 2004 had an El Nino, albeit weak, and we received snow that year. On Christmas Day, to be exact.
Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418
431. aquak9 10:28 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
post 428

because I've read some of the wu-mail he's sent to people, threatening and attacking, cussing like you have no idea. No matter how many new names he has, it always ends the same way. There is no "straightening him up".
Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 24996
432. Cavin Rawlins 10:29 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting aquak9:
post 428

because I've read some of the wu-mail he's sent to people, threatening and attacking, cussing like you have no idea. No matter how many new names he has, it always ends the same way. There is no "straightening him up".


I have to understand what you went through but hey that's just me I guess.
Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
433. stormwatcherCI 10:31 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting KoritheMan:


The reason, I think, a lot of JFV's questions annoy the bloggers here is not necessarily because he has questions -- it's the nature of his questions.

He asks things that cannot be known even by the most skilled meteorologists.

With that in mind, I can easily see why he gets under the skin of most of the bloggers here. Given that he is supposedly studying at university for meteorology, he should have the knowledge to realize that the questions he asks are of the impossible nature.

This indicates that he does what he does primarily for attention -- and he gets it.

Again, he doesn't annoy me, but I definitely understand the frustration constantly directed towards him.
Saw on facebook he changed to Political Science, no longer meteorology
Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038
434. SevereHurricane 10:31 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting KoritheMan:


To be fair, they may be on to something. El Nino is present this year, and it tends to bring cooler and wetter weather to the Gulf Coast states.

If you recall, 2004 had an El Nino, albeit weak, and we received snow that year. On Christmas Day, to be exact.


True True True. But Snow in El Nino Years here make me nervous. Remember what happened 8 months later?

That 2004 Christmas was the 1st time I had EVER seen snow. I was 9 years old and I had never been so excited in my life. Not only was it Christmas but it snowed. I will never forget it.
Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
435. jipmg 10:31 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting KoritheMan:


That depends. Is there any cloud cover forecast tonight? Cloud cover tends to limit the amount of cooling that can take place. If it ends up being cloudy, even the forecast of 56F may end up being busted.


the clouds are dissipating, actually it almost clear outside, just some upper level very thin scattered cirrus clouds. With a breeze out of the North and North west.
436. KoritheMan 10:33 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Saw on facebook he changed to Political Science, no longer meteorology


o_O

How odd.
Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418
437. tornadodude 10:33 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting SevereHurricane:


True True True. But Snow in El Nino Years here make me nervous. Remember what happened 8 months later?

That 2004 Christmas was the 1st time I had EVER seen snow. I was 9 years old and I had never been so excited in my life. Not only was it Christmas but it snowed. I will never forget it.


christmas 2004 we got 23 inches of snow haha
Member Since: Giugno 28, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 7816
438. SevereHurricane 10:33 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting aquak9:
post 428

because I've read some of the wu-mail he's sent to people, threatening and attacking, cussing like you have no idea. No matter how many new names he has, it always ends the same way. There is no "straightening him up".


I was one of those people he had sent mail to too. Melwerle and I had a long discussion about him after he caused that incident. I wish the Admins would just IP Ban him.
Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
439. KoritheMan 10:35 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting SevereHurricane:


True True True. But Snow in El Nino Years here make me nervous. Remember what happened 8 months later?

That 2004 Christmas was the 1st time I had EVER seen snow. I was 9 years old and I had never been so excited in my life. Not only was it Christmas but it snowed. I will never forget it.


There does seem to be a strong correlation between snowfall events, both El Nino and non-El Nino induced, and hurricane strikes in Louisiana.

IIRC, it snowed during December of 1964, and we had Hilda just two months earlier. Then, in 1965, Betsy slammed ashore.

2004, it snowed, and along came Cindy, Katrina, and Rita. 2008, we had Gustav and Ike, and along came a record snowfall event that very winter.

It's definitely a frightening, but very real correlation.
Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418
440. stormwatcherCI 10:36 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I was one of those people he had sent mail to too. Melwerle and I had a long discussion about him after he caused that incident. I wish the Admins would just IP Ban him.
Don't even bother to stress over him. It is quite obvious he has some growing up to do. I try to have patience with him but he makes it difficult at times.
Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038
441. winter123 10:37 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
looking very sketchy...

Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700
442. SevereHurricane 10:38 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting KoritheMan:


There does seem to be a strong correlation between snowfall events, both El Nino and non-El Nino induced, and hurricane strikes in Louisiana.

IIRC, it snowed during December of 1964, and we had Hilda just two months earlier. Then, in 1965, Betsy slammed ashore.

2004, it snowed, and along came Cindy, Katrina, and Rita. 2008, we had Gustav and Ike, and along came a record snowfall event that very winter.

It's definitely a frightening, but very real correlation.


I know there isn't any strong correlation. Its just a strange coincidence. Definitely one of those things that will get you thinking though.
Member Since: Settembre 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
443. stormwatcherCI 10:39 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
This is what worries me. When the cold front comes down to the stationary low(visions of Paloma)
Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038
444. winter123 10:39 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting Weather456:


Life is too short to stress on the little things, like whatever anybody has against WS.


456, or someone, what do you think about the wave sitting just off africa? It at least has a well defined mid level low IMO.But it's drifting NNE into high shear. Still, I don't know why this doesn't at least have a yellow circle.

Link

in case that doesnt work Link
Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700
445. jipmg 10:40 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This is what worries me. When the cold front comes down to the stationary low(visions of Paloma)


we should watch anything forming along that axis, that low could dissipate, and another could form were the convection sustains itself.
446. stormwatcherCI 10:42 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting jipmg:


we should watch anything forming along that axis, that low could dissipate, and another could form were the convection sustains itself.
The way it looks now is just how the convection looked before Paloma and the way the weather is here now feels the same.
Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038
447. KoritheMan 10:45 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I know there isn't any strong correlation. Its just a strange coincidence. Definitely one of those things that will get you thinking though.


I'd call it more than coincidence, but that's just me.
Member Since: Marzo 7, 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418
448. jipmg 10:49 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The way it looks now is just how the convection looked before Paloma and the way the weather is here now feels the same.


I see.. I remember the track, but not how it looked.
449. xcool 10:49 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Member Since: Settembre 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15501
450. tornadodude 10:58 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
wow, Patriots are up 59 to 0 against the Titans
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451. stormwatcherCI 10:59 PM GMT del 18 Ottobre 2009    
Quoting jipmg:


I see.. I remember the track, but not how it looked.
I remember it well. BTW, the cold front has finally arrived . Temp is 78. Cold j/k
Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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