Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting rareaire:
Tampa so your thinking along my thinking which kinda scares you doesnt it!!

Yep! It does!

No way, the Gulf of Mexico is always open for business as well as the Caribbean Sea especially the NW Caribbean. Just right now it doesn't look favorable but I expect that to change as we go through cycles in the wind shear world.

deleted post, problems with edit

@385.

Bear in mind that systems below (south) of 10N have very little effect due to coriolis, other than the tendency to move poleward...though the jog forecast for the CV wave in quiesrtion has more to do with a low passing above it..after the passage of the low the forecast path is more W

Erika's MLC seems to be gaining strength. An outflow channel is trying to develop on the NE side of the circulation, but dry air seems to be hampering any thunderstorm development. Storms are erupting though over the supposed MLC.

wont change 456, your knowledge should not be wasted on a place that cares more about who is right and wrong and who eats crow more than it does getting people the right information.

There are good people on this site, but the childish games makes it harder and harder to see these people.

Quoting Floodman:
@385.

Bear in mind that systems below (south) of 10N have very little effect due to coriolis, other than the tendency to move poleward...though the jog forecast for the CV wave in quiesrtion has more to do with a low passing above it..after the passage of the low the forecast path is more W

correct

I know Erika has been downgraded and everybody is sick of her, just waiting for the final nail to be offically laid in her coffin, but I don't believe she is finished just yet!!

Quoting Weather456:


dude, 1993 was apart of a very long lasting El Nino....the El Nino of 1991-1994.

The year after that El Nino was 1995 which further reinforce the point.

Nevermind.

.

Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Storm "LABUYO" has changed course and is now moving northeastward.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
========================
At 5:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Labuyo (Dujuan) located at 17.1°N 128.2°E or 620 kms east of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 km/h (40 knots) with gustiness up to 90 km/h (50 knots).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Cagayan
2.Isabela Provinces

Additional Information
======================
This disturbance is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional to frequent rains over Luzon and Visayas particularly the western sections.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes specially the western sections of Southern Luzon and Visayas are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

Quoting Cotillion:


A bit of a bad example. 1995 also coincided with the start of the positive AMO.

1984 or 88 might work.

true, not a perfect example, but La Nina did influence that season since it is used in today's literature when referring to Enso impacts on Atlantic TC activity.

For example, 1997 was very inactive but it was apart of the same AMO period but El Nino influences won that year just like 2006 and 2009.

Quoting TexasHurricane:


ok, but isn't there a lot of shear and troughs this year for things to really develop in the GOM? just curious...

Troughs and fronts mean stalled front and troughs. Watch the tails of those as things can often develop when stalled into the Caribbean, Bahamas, and GOM !

Being a first time poster long time lurker and a interested resident of S. Florida that is still cleaning up from Wilma, I wanted to thank all the serious weather fans for a great ride with Erika, I learned more about Tropical Systems in the last week then I have in the other 4o years on the planet. Thanks again.

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
wont change 456, your knowledge should not be wasted on a place that cares more about who is right and wrong and who eats crow more than it does getting people the right information.

There are good people on this site, but the childish games makes it harder and harder to see these people.

while i do feel so sometimes, its not entirely wasted. I do have a met job but also feel that it can be shared with other folks on the website, hence my blog.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
1. which is the season in which the most tropical storms formed on record?



Give me your answers!

Atlantic Basin, or PAC?

Are there any chances for something to develop out of the MLC that Erika abandoned?

convection starting to flare up north side..invest 95L 24 to 36hrs? btw, the one behind may be one to watch in the coming days too..SEASON OVER!!..LOL

Even though possibility they may not affect land..still nice to see mother nature in action.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
1. which is the season in which the most tropical storms formed on record?



Give me your answers!

Atlantic Basin

Quoting Floodman:


Atlantic Basin, or PAC?

Atlantic Basin

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
1. which is the season in which the most tropical storms formed on record?



Give me your answers!

Atlantic: 2005

E PAcific: 1992

Quoting TampaSpin:


Troughs and fronts mean stalled front and troughs. Watch the tails of those as things can often develop when stalled into the Caribbean, Bahamas, and GOM !

ok, thanks. :)

anyone have a picture or radar of the GOM as well as the atlantic? Thanks!

ok trying again:


TROPICAL STORM JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 25…CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2009
CORRECTED MOTION PARAGRAPH TO REMOVE MENTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
…JIMENA STILL A TROPICAL STORM…

...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 30 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT FROM SAN CARLOS MEXICO…LOCATED IN
SONORA STATE JUST WEST OF GUAYMAS… INDICATES THAT ABOUT 25 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.


…SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…27.8N 112.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

Quoting rareaire:


Well said however you and I are not the only ones on this blog. And we have the ignore feature to remove the wasted lines of those that do not contibute anything to the blog. If you wish to wade through it then start stepping ... However many of us do not and if you constantly quote them it defeats the purpose. There are numerous folks who use this feature and would appreciate your not underminding their right to do so! As for me I have 3 folks on ignore. I too am done!

How's everything in La Porte. I'm in Hitchcock. Don't worry about these people. Talk to who you want to talk to. I don't have a single person (thats "0", nada) on my ignore list. I don't read like a first grader. I can skim through several sentences in a second. If something interesting, I read it, if its stupid or doesn't interest me I ignore it. I ignore it by going to the next post, not by going through the steps to actually ignore someone. I value everyone's opinion even if stupid as say the next CAT5 is going to wipe Texas off of the map. Sorry, had to rant. Put me on ignore if you must, or do like I do and skim on through, thanks.

Isnt Erika in better shape than Ana was? Also if she stays over water in the Caribbean, Whats going to stop her from intesifying?

Quoting stormsurge39:
Isnt Erika in better shape than Ana was? Also if she stays over water in the Caribbean, Whats going to stop her from intesifying?

- Wind shear.

- Bad organisation.

- Land interaction. (If it wanders too close to Hispaniola).

- Subsidence from the MJO.

- Dry air.

- Erika's inability to choose what shoes she wants to wear.

weather 456 I was wondering what are the chances of a snowstorm in the SE this coming winter? Im guessing we might get one with all these long wave troughs coming down. I know little about the winter months but what are your thoughts.

Quoting justalurker:
convection starting to flare up north side..invest 95L 24 to 36hrs? btw, the one behind may be one to watch in the coming days too..SEASON OVER!!..LOL

Even though possibility they may not affect land..still nice to see mother nature in action.

so are most other clouds in the ocean

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
1950 had the most major hurricanes 8 of them

Correct!

Quoting AllBoardedUp:
How's everything in La Porte. I'm in Hitchcock. Don't worry about these people. Talk to who you want to talk to. I don't have a single person (thats "0", nada) on my ignore list. I don'I read like a first grader. I can skim through several sentences in a second. If something interesting, I read it, if its stupid or doesn't interest me I ignore it. I ignore it by going to the next post, not by going through the steps to actually ignore someone. I value everyone's opinion even if stupid as say the next CAT5 is going to wipe Texas off of the map. Sorry, had to rant. Put me on ignore if you must, or do like I do and skim on through, thanks.

I meant to quote LPStorm by the way not you rareaire.

Quoting Cotillion:


- Wind shear.

- Bad organisation.

- Land interaction.

- Subsidence from the MJO.

- Dry air.

- Erika's inability to choose what shoes she wants to wear.

Erika has been one of the more frustrating storms to forecast, so will see!

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
what was the Atlantic's least active season on record?

1845. No storms recorded.

Erika is starting to pull an Ana: one lone tower on the east side of the center.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
what was the Atlantic's least active season on record?

2007

Quoting Hurricane009:
probably this year... LOL

actually this year is above average so far

6th named storm in an average season doesnt form until September 12th

Though, can say 1914 with just the one storm.

Post-1960 though, it's 1983.

Nice footy of Jimena in Mex

Defiant - Erika has been labeled defiant.....she's in in defiance of the computer models..... Fascinating.

I'm with Weather456 - until the last nail is hammered in her coffin... eyes wide open. The Hot Tub in the GOM is a magnet... hope she fizzles b/4 she dips her foot... That's where her defiance has me worried.

She has demonstrated a will to survive -- not over yet....