Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Dakster:


Just how active was the Hurricane Season of 2010?

give him time to modify his post..LOL

Quoting rareaire:
If we put him on ignore it means we dont want to see his post. You two can go and pick out shower curtains for all I care. Just chat without posting him in quotes! !!! We all do it. As for putting you on ignore we'll see! I have asked nicely!

Yeah it's kind of a shame. I have put a number of decent or better posters on ignore, simply because they kept quoting trolls.

See y'all tomorrow.

Quoting justalurker:


give him time to modify his post..LOL

nope, wasnt a typo

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Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


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Quoting Floodman:


I don't know...there are more Hindus than there are Jews, after all

I'll have to take your word for that one.... Which means I don't dispute your statement.

so what happened to that anticyclone that some were trying to claim was protecting Erika?

poof.

Quoting Weather456:
I would like to see what some will do when we get a repeat of an active season like 2010. 2009 actually is an anomaly.

I think you had a slight typo, 2010 hasn't happened yet although the early signs are pointing to a possibility of an active 2010 season. Way, way, way to early to determine that though.

Someone might get egg on their faces yet with Erika imo.

Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Yeah it's kind of a shame. I have put a number of decent or better posters on ignore, simply because they kept quoting trolls.

See y'all tomorrow.

so am I on your ignore list now?

Quoting sfla82:
RIP Erika!!! I am going to go ahead and call the hurricane season over for South Florida! I think that is safe to say!

South Florida of all places... :-)

Too bad south Florida's historical seasons show major hurricanes can hit into late October, and hurricanes even later than that...

Now if you lived in Boston and it was October...

Weather456 -Ok. So you meant to say that 2010 will BE an active year because of climatology, kind of like a 2004/2005 repeat?

Quoting OSUWXGUY:


South Florida of all places... :-)

Too bad south Florida's historical seasons show major hurricanes can hit into late October, and hurricane even later than than...

Now if you lived in Boston and it was October...

haha how about the hurricane season here in Indiana?

Ok no matter where the new center forms, I think the Islands east of PR have been getting a lot of rain the past 12 hours. Those storms look almost stationary left behind by the remnant low of Erika. So, she left her trash in the Caribbean as she races ahead on a suicide mission.

well this blog appears to be in some serious ciaos this afternon.

BBL

Quoting stormpetrol:
Someone might get egg on their faces yet with Erika imo.

Your a day ahead what happens, lol.. Im with you on this one to many models still showing potential...

254 JRRP [time-lapsed animation loop]

How old is that map? NHC places Erika's center west of the leading edge of the (storm as shown in the last frame of the animation)

last time i checked, dont we have a wave coming off of africa, am i missing something..season over? huh

I'm out for the evening...hope everyone has a great one!


Watch the MLC with Erika blow up overnight...it should be a good show.

Fortunately, it'll only produce a weak low level center...

Quoting Dakster:
Weather456 -Ok. So you meant to say that 2010 will BE an active year because of climatology, kind of like a 2004/2005 repeat?

its only a hint, not a forecast. Take any long range hints/forecast with a grain of salt.

1 indication is the returning neutral conditions

continued plus AMO

and below normal SLP for march/april 2009


also I never stated any year or years...as every active year was different in its own way.

Quoting Weather456:
I would like to see what some will do when we get a repeat of an active season like 2010. 2009 actually is an anomaly.

Or even, see what people do if/when we get a repeat of 1950.

Going to log off. Erika's thunderstorms are still there, and there's a MLC. Let's see if it does something.

Flare-ups of thunderstorms beginning now right over the MLC of Erika.

the Center Of Circulation
Link

Quoting Cotillion:


Or even, see what people do if/when we get a repeat of 1950.

lol, till this day I never understood downcasters. Its not wishful but its a known fact that hurricanes will occur every year. So why get lucky in a quiet year when you your only buying time till the next year.

For example 2006-2007 then 2008.

Here is my thinking as to what happens with TD Erika as she gets ripped from the Shear to the West!

This hurricane season just got started

Quoting rareaire:
Your a day ahead what happens, lol.. Im with you on this one to many models still showing potential...

what is your opinion on Erika?

Quoting tropicofcancer:


ROFL
Flood, If it wasn't for you this would be a very boring place!!!

**bows deeply**

Thank you!

I think Erika has some more suprises for us tonight! It aint over till she cant sing at all!!

I have a poll going in my blog. No, not a "how strong is it?!?" or "Wherez it goin?!!1!" type poll, but a legitimate question. I'd appreciate it if you could drop by and give your thoughts. Cheers.

Updated... this about says it all

Quoting chevycanes:
so what happened to that anticyclone that some were trying to claim was protecting Erika?

poof.

It moved off, as forecast...do you read charts, ever?

Quoting rareaire:
Do you need to loosen your chin strap?

NOPE. I could care less who's on ignore... I thought this was a weather blog. NOT a personality contest. I can tell you if it was some of the GREAT blogger's would be out.. Does it really matter to you? If people say something you personally don’t like.. O well !!!Maybe someone else is interested. I see dumb crap all the time. But there just not worth my time. Soooo I go on to the next interesting post. Ok I’m done.. Just saying. Nothing personal

I agree Relix, since those two parts of the system are still there, I am not ready to give up on Erika. Also the wave off of Africa now seems to be firing off some good convection now.

I think Erika will remain together and during d-max grow slightly. i think the sheer forcast are overstated and I think she will continue into the carribean where she will steadily strengthen until she get close to florida coast and rapidly intensifys. As to her hitting the conus that remains unseen but the madels are split on her development and many on here are going with the one that dissipates her. They may be correcxt but I still feel her surviving this long shows she has something left.

Quoting caymankelt:


I went fishing in Jersey and Alderney in the Channel Islands a number of years back, and yes like the locals we bought prodigious amounts of alcohol. Had a great time and the fishing was great. We even managed to get blown back to the English mainland with a force 7 gale behand us for 4 hrs and on a small 30ft fishing boat, that was an experience!!

Excuse my lack of knowledge, but do remnants of tropical storms/hurricanes gain strength again as they traverse the atlantic towards the UK despite rapidly decreasing sea surface temperature? And if they do why? They seem mighty strong storms over here, and such huge swells.

Quoting rareaire:
I think Erika will remain together and during d-max grow slightly. i think the sheer forcast are overstated and I think she will continue into the carribean where she will steadily strengthen until she get close to florida coast and rapidly intensifys. As to her hitting the conus that remains unseen but the madels are split on her development and many on here are going with the one that dissipates her. They may be correcxt but I still feel her surviving this long shows she has something left.

yeah, I agree that Erika will probably survive, and may even end up in the GOM, no idea on the strength, but it is definitely worthwhile to keep an eye on Erika, she isn't dead yet

The RIPpers will be out in their numbers tonight. Should be interesting.

My take on Erika is that will likely weaken but I have never stop tracking a system until it completely dissipates. That being said it is still wise to watch her until she does so.

Quoting justalurker:
last time i checked, dont we have a wave coming off of africa, am i missing something..season over? huh

Trolls will be trolls...The season's over! It's a fish! The shear will get it! The GOM is closed! The Caribbean is closed! South Florida is saved!

Geez, go watch Sesame Street, y'all, and let us be, huh?

We do indeed have a CV wave working it's way this way...

Quoting TampaSpin:
Here is my thinking as to what happens with TD Erika as she gets ripped from the Shear to the West!

LOL.. ok Tampa, And Then?

Quoting GBJane:


Excuse my lack of knowledge, but do remnants of tropical storms/hurricanes gain strength again as they traverse the atlantic towards the UK despite rapidly decreasing sea surface temperature? And if they do why? They seem mighty strong storms over here, and such huge swells.

They gain strength, but not as tropical entities, but rather as baroclinic entities. Also, they gain energy from the Icelandic Low that is usually positioned near Iceland.

Quoting Floodman:


Trolls will be trolls...The season's over! It's a fish! The shear will get it! The GOM is closed! The Caribbean is closed! South Florida is saved!

Geez, go watch Sesame Street, y'all, and let us be, huh?

We do indeed have a CV wave working it's way this way...

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