Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Erika steadily weakening

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:43 PM GMT del 03 Settembre 2009

Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

McAfee virus alert messages
A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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801. hurricanehanna 01:14 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting atmoaggie: atmo goes away to watch the Saints preseason game to see if they put Patrap, in all his Suite glory, on TV atmo hopes Pat wore a shirt to the game Go Saints!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Member Since: Settembre 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3214

802. BahaHurican 01:14 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting weathermancer: Has it ever happened to a tropical feature... where two circulations (regardless of what level of atmosphere) have birthed two separate storms - born from a single entity? Anticyclonic counter storms on land I can understand... but two tropical ocean bound COC's moving far enough away from each other that two are created moving away from each other?? BTW... interesting discussions last night around post # 2000. Are u asking if like, two different low centres (as in Erika from time to time) have eventually formed different storms? Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17661

803. Relix 01:14 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Erika's convection is nothing. Let it die =P. Not even a drop of rain over PR, incredible.... Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

804. Eagle300 01:14 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
For the African Wave, the wind shear is pretty low. 5-10 knots. LINK The vorticity map shows that Erika's circulation is still pretty strong, and the African Wave is not so much. But 'm no exactly sure what that vorticity means. Can anyone explain? thanks

805. midgulfmom 01:14 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting TreasureCoastFl: Ha.. us gals gotta stick together! ;) Yes Indeed! BTW Thank you for clarifying your gender. I seem to be having a problem with that. LOL Member Since: Luglio 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

806. weathermancer 01:14 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting TreasureCoastFl: I thought so .. And it was answered here again tonight Thanks... question answered! I wasn't just i-maggie-ing things. lol Member Since: Agosto 29, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

807. MelbourneTom 01:15 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting StormW: Back. Evening Storm. Is there a sense of circulation N of Guadlope as seen in the radar and a little on SW? Member Since: Giugno 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 600

809. TreasureCoastFl 01:15 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting weathermancer: Thanks... question answered! I wasn't just i-maggie-ing things. lol too funny ! Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

810. stormsurge39 01:15 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Relix: Erika's convection is nothing. Let it die =P. Not even a drop of rain over PR, incredible.... IT is over water

811. Chicklit 01:16 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Relix: Erika's convection is nothing. Let it die =P. Not even a drop of rain over PR, incredible.... That's cuz it's south of you. Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

812. TreasureCoastFl 01:16 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting midgulfmom: Yes Indeed! BTW Thank you for clarifying your gender. I seem to be having a problem with that. LOL I kinda had a feeling haha Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

813. weathermancer 01:16 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting BahaHurican: Are u asking if like, two different low centres (as in Erika from time to time) have eventually formed different storms? Yes... anytime in recorded history?? Member Since: Agosto 29, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

814. homelesswanderer 01:16 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting StormW: Back. Hi Storm. :) Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

815. Tazmanian 01:16 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting tornadodude: Good evening everyone, how is Erika doing? RIP Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111354

816. hurricanehanna 01:16 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer: Jimena sending TX/LA a gift?? Link CMC showed something similar too Member Since: Settembre 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3214

817. Relix 01:16 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Chicklit: That's cuz it's south of you. I know but we were supposed to get at least SOMETHING. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

818. Barbados 01:17 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Everyone in the Eastern Caribbean islands can pretty much go to sleep for the next 2-3 weeks. Nothing can get close. Member Since: Agosto 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 253

819. midgulfmom 01:17 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting weathermancer: Thanks... question answered! I wasn't just i-maggie-ing things. lol Apparently I was however...LOL Member Since: Luglio 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

821. JadeInAntigua 01:18 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Relix: Erika's convection is nothing. Let it die =P. Not even a drop of rain over PR, incredible.... We're getting storms here at the moment with one of those new blobs that's firing up on top of us. Member Since: Settembre 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 129

822. Chicklit 01:18 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Relix: I know but we were supposed to get at least SOMETHING. Why, cuz the models said? Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

823. TreasureCoastFl 01:18 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting weathermancer: Yes... anytime in recorded history?? Didn't we just come to a conclusion on that? Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

824. troy1993 01:18 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Screw the 2009 hurricane season.. i am done. Every time we get a system that threatens the U.S it either weakends or fizzles out and everytime we get a strong hurricane it recurves.. this 2006 all over again. Member Since: Luglio 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 204

825. RufusBaker 01:18 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Tazmanian: RIP nOT YET, NEW CONVECTION IS FIRING RIGHT OVER THE CENTER........ Member Since: Luglio 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 510

826. nishinigami 01:18 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Hi Storm, I was wondering if you could answer a question I had? I was looking at the historical map of tropical depressions that passed within 400 miles of TD erika. Link Does the current weather conditions make it unlikely that TD Erika would follow a path similar to the ones on the map? Thank you Member Since: Agosto 24, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 221

827. homelesswanderer 01:18 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting hurricanehanna: CMC showed something similar too Yep. Sending it to LA/MS. Link Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

828. ssmate 01:19 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting hurricanehanna: The invest formerly known as Erika seems to be calming down finally. On the other hand, the CMC run is rather interesting...and I see the NHC found the yellow crayon. Since nothing seems to be going on...and we are talking about something 'formely known as' when I was in college I was a valet at a club Prince owned. He would call the club and have me come in and wash his BMW. He never said more than thanks but gave me a $50 for the 20 minutes of work. I washed his car many times and we never had a conversation. He would just give me the head nod and the Thanks. He is a differant kinda cat. Member Since: Luglio 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 347

829. Relix 01:19 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Chicklit: Why, cuz the models said? ...and the NHC too! =P! This will leave a bad taste in the mouth of Puerto Ricans. It was hyped by the media as a sure hit. Next time they probably won't listen to warnings at all. Real shame too. Oh well... just going to wait and see if I get some rain at least. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

830. java162 01:19 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Barbados: Everyone in the Eastern Caribbean islands can pretty much go to sleep for the next 2-3 weeks. Nothing can get close. why you say that? Member Since: Luglio 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 265

831. Chicklit 01:20 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
midgulfmom, if you don't change your subject i'm gonna have to put you on ignore. not everyone finds gender confusion fascinating, particularly on a weather blog. Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

832. Skyepony (Mod) 01:20 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Still vacationing. Figured I'd give Erika a quick check.. Gotta run but brought the model preformance~ humans edged out over the models today with the offical track closest but still broad side of a barn.. Average Error (nm) for core models model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error OFCL INCREASING 98.9 171.3 -1 -1 -1 LBAR DECREASING 104.1 126.5 107.9 131.7 300.2 BAMD DECREASING 115.9 183.7 270.1 385.4 523.4 GFDL DECREASING 149.2 237.8 298.3 456.3 499.2 HWRF CONSTANT 150.1 240.9 329.6 550.1 766.3 KHRM DECREASING 159.2 372 -1 -1 -1 MM5B INCREASING 219 328.9 315.5 431.2 -1 MM5E INCREASING 232.1 578.4 -1 -1 -1 Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29342

833. hurricanehanna 01:21 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting StormW: Back. Heya Storm-e! Member Since: Settembre 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3214

836. weathermancer 01:21 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting TreasureCoastFl: Didn't we just come to a conclusion on that? I'm always open to alternative conclusions. Member Since: Agosto 29, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

837. TreasureCoastFl 01:21 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting TreasureCoastFl: Didn't we just come to a conclusion on that? Although I did find this which is kinda close: .." in 2004 the extratropical remnants of Hurricane Ivan split into an upper-level disturbance that sped away through New England while the low-level circulation tracked south off the east coast and re-developed into a tropical storm." but those were remnants. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

839. BahaHurican 01:23 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting TreasureCoastFl: I'm actually a preety good speller but it's like that paragraph they show you with all the leters in the wrong order in the words but your mind still reads it correctly anyway. I guess my mind corrected it to maggie. Yeah, that's the ticket... That's exactly what I meant. Ur mind "knows" that -O- in Atmoaggie shouldn't be there, so it takes it out. When atmo first started posting here, I'm sure I typed atomaggie or something similar... it's like ur mind rearranges the letters as u type.... Quoting atmoaggie: And you knew this when typing in your handle, apparently. Smart. bahahurican without the caps might have led people to call you hahu. Should have gone with AtmoAggie, eh? (I hate the shift key sometimes, though) Of course I didn't. I figured it out after I kept screwing up other peoples' handles.... lol I prolly would have gotten "haha" instead of "baha".... lol. Got lucky with the caps hehe And people kept getting me and BajaALemt mixed up, and asking me if I was from / in Mexico.... lol So I feel ur pain. At least u have real wx stuff to talk abt, so most pple are calling u atmo anyway.... Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17661

840. TreasureCoastFl 01:23 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Chicklit: midgulfmom, if you don't change your subject i'm gonna have to put you on ignore. not everyone finds gender confusion fascinating, particularly on a weather blog. now you're gonna be confused and ignored.. oh my! Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

841. KATRINABILOXIGIRL 01:26 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting troy1993: Screw the 2009 hurricane season.. i am done. Every time we get a system that threatens the U.S it either weakends or fizzles out and everytime we get a strong hurricane it recurves.. this 2006 all over again. I know some of y'all really get into studying and tracking these things but I for one am very glad eveything has missed so far...It is not a great thing to live out...may we be so lucky for the rest of the season Member Since: Luglio 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 324

842. Barbados 01:25 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting java162: why you say that? The sub tropical ridge is forcasted to weekend from this weekend thus anything forming on the Atlantic will pass well north of all islands. Member Since: Agosto 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 253

843. robie1conobie 01:27 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting 954FtLCane: ok ok back to real importance....... imaportnace... alonost halftime... Miami wishcasters 10, New Orleands wishcasters 0 lets go dolphins!!!! Member Since: Maggio 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 103

844. CaicosRetiredSailor 01:26 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
779. Chicklit 9:07 PM EDT on September 03, 2009 Hide this comment. funkyloopdance She's doing her funky chicken due west now, according to nhc at 8 p.m.... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 65.3W AT 03/2100 UTC ----------- this surprised me for a bit... until I checked: that was from the 5pm when the downgraded Erika to a Depression: ...SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...16.7N 65.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. Member Since: Luglio 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5131

845. iluvjess 01:27 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
What is that that the CMC brings over my house in about 96 hours?

846. IKE 01:27 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Tazmanian: RIP I agree TAZ. RIP Erika. It's finished...done...bye...next....see ya...over...adios....see you in 2015....history.... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

847. Lizpr 01:28 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Relix: ...and the NHC too! =P! This will leave a bad taste in the mouth of Puerto Ricans. It was hyped by the media as a sure hit. Next time they probably won't listen to warnings at all. Real shame too. Oh well... just going to wait and see if I get some rain at least. I realy want some rain the heat it's crazy Member Since: Agosto 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 53

848. fire635 01:28 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting troy1993: Screw the 2009 hurricane season.. i am done. Every time we get a system that threatens the U.S it either weakends or fizzles out and everytime we get a strong hurricane it recurves.. this 2006 all over again. and this is bad because...... Member Since: Giugno 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 478

849. DocBen 01:28 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
New 'real' center SE of Puerto Rico? Member Since: Maggio 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 96

850. Dakster 01:29 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting hurricanehanna: Go Saints!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yeeeeahhhh.... Dolphins 10, Saints - 0... Sorry, you're in Dolphin and Hurricane Territory... Member Since: Marzo 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4938

851. caneswatch 01:29 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting iluvjess: What is that that the CMC brings over my house in about 96 hours? Does anybody have the link? Member Since: Ottobre 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473

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