Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Erika steadily weakening

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:43 PM GMT del 03 Settembre 2009

Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

McAfee virus alert messages
A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

Categories: Hurricane

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651. weathermancer 11:54 PM GMT del 03 Settembre 2009
Quoting midgulfmom: Archives? Oh, didn't know, thanks I'll look around.... I gave up... there are 6,000 posts from last night. doh. Member Since: Agosto 29, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

652. Jerrob 11:56 PM GMT del 03 Settembre 2009
Thanks Futuremet! That was really good. You have a good future ahead of you... :-) Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 173

654. SCwannabe 11:56 PM GMT del 03 Settembre 2009
Why does it appear on the visible that Erika's trying to form another COC to the northeast of the NHC COC? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html Member Since: Agosto 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 535

655. JLPR 11:56 PM GMT del 03 Settembre 2009
convection keeps expanding Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

656. midgulfmom 11:57 PM GMT del 03 Settembre 2009
Quoting weathermancer: I gave up... there are 6,000 posts from last night. doh. LOL, I don't have THAT much time either. I wonder if you can look up automaggie's comments alone? I'll check. Member Since: Luglio 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

657. jurakantaino 11:57 PM GMT del 03 Settembre 2009
Quoting Lizpr: Hmm she does'nt want to die? Pretty sure with D max she will probably have another of those wild nights and died during the day time,,hope that tonights flare up don't cause most damage here in Puerto Rico. Member Since: Luglio 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

658. Tazmanian 11:58 PM GMT del 03 Settembre 2009
guys any storms that follow the path of ERIKA will get rip apart by wind shear is they even come near the USA we are now geting too that time of year where stronger storm overe the USA dip more S wish means we get higher wind shear Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

660. lordhuracan01 12:00 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
WHAT'S GOING WITH ERIKA? Member Since: Agosto 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 225

661. alpha992000 12:00 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: I just completed a Tropical Update if anyone would like to view! I out for now BBL watching the RAYS vs sox GO RAYS! Though I'm a Yankee fan, I visit Tampa at least a couple of times a year and I've been thisclose to just move there once and for all. I'm already a Bucs & Lightning fan so I'm halfway there. ;-) Back to Erika... Member Since: Ottobre 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 123

662. futuremet 12:00 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Funkadelic: Well just to let you all know my HD camera came in the mail today from amazon.com. I have a great set up here in Florida, so if any hurricane comes this way, I will provide you guys with live coverage. Also I have plans of haveing a live stream of my preperations, and interviewing my neighbors. I know cycloneoz does a great job, but I feel that with the help of my couisns, and some close friend's I will provide SAFE live coverage in HD. So I dont wishcast, but Im excited to venture out in my first storm since 2005. Yea, I can't wait to see CycloneOZ's coverage in HD. Hopefully you'll get some nice shots. Member Since: Luglio 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

663. msphar 12:01 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Jimena has stalled over the Sea of Cortez and is pumping prodigious amounts of water into the atmosphere over Mexico. Member Since: Agosto 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 258

664. jurakantaino 12:01 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting serialteg: ... and it's called Ponce. 2 mins. to the big mall (plaza del caribe) 4 mins. to basically all colleges 3 mins. from hangout spots and pubs 4 mins. walking from 24hrs Walgreens light (power) and water consistent on for a year, no major or noticeable blackouts or the AAA taking the water off (just two low pressure instances) you get the idea. Ponce es Ponce lo demas es Parking,,!! Member Since: Luglio 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

665. homelesswanderer 12:01 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Good afternoon/evening? Oh wll. my morning. :) Looks like our girl is still confounding everyone. Getting her naked self dressed for another evening out. Lol. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

666. Tazmanian 12:02 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting lordhuracan01: WHAT'S GOING WITH ERIKA? dont need to yell Please take off your caps Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

667. jipmg 12:02 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting msphar: Jimena has stalled over the Sea of Cortez and is pumping prodigious amounts of water into the atmosphere over Mexico. link to satellite

668. futuremet 12:02 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Well, I'm out for the night. thanks guys Member Since: Luglio 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4049

669. Jerrob 12:03 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting futuremet: Well, I'm out for the night. thanks guys night! thanks for your imput. Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 173

670. weathermancer 12:04 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting midgulfmom: LOL, I don't have THAT much time either. I wonder if you can look up automaggie's comments alone? I'll check. "automaggie" LOL! Member Since: Agosto 29, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 481

672. homelesswanderer 12:05 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting midgulfmom: LOL, I don't have THAT much time either. I wonder if you can look up automaggie's comments alone? I'll check. If you go to edit on your menu bar. Go to find on this page and type in atmo's handle you can skip to his posts. :) Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

674. sngalla 12:08 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Funkadelic: Does anyone know where Futuremet lives? I think it is south Florida but im not sure. I'd love to invite him with me on a storm scase adventure if a storm comes to Florida. His blog says Port St Lucie. Member Since: Febbraio 18, 2003 Posts: 57 Comments: 5363

675. lordhuracan01 12:09 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Tazmanian: dont need to yell Please take off your caps ok Member Since: Agosto 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 225

676. xoverau 12:11 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Funkadelic: Does anyone know where Futuremet lives? I think it is south Florida but im not sure. I'd love to invite him with me on a storm scase adventure if a storm comes to Florida. He said earlier that his accent was Haitian, not sure if that means he lives there or not. Member Since: Luglio 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 20

677. AllStar17 12:12 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Things could get VERY interesting if Erika decides to avoid Hispaniola to the south. Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

678. JadeInAntigua 12:13 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting P451: 12hrs Good size blob on us on your radar loop - guess we'll be having this rain for awhile yet tonight. Can't believe how quiet the blog is... I could barely keep up last night. Member Since: Settembre 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 129

679. homelesswanderer 12:13 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE LOW PRES FORMED NEAR 27N86W 1012 MB ALONG THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM W FL TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT SYSTEM TO DRIFT E THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL EARLY TONIGHT...THEN MOVE BACK NW FRI AS NE TO SW RIDGE BUILDS OVER E GULF SAT THROUGH TUE. ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH 30N76W TO 27N78W WILL MEANDER UNTIL A STRONGER TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO THE NW BAHAMAS...MOVES NW AND MERGES WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE MERGED BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS NEXT WEEK. T.S. ERIKA E OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW INTO SE CORNER OF ATLC ZONE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRI MORNING AND THEN TRACK NW OVER THE SE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN...MINIMAL T.S. ERIKA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NW PASSING ACROSS PUERTO RICO FRI WITH ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS NW OF AREA BY LATE SAT AS WINDS BECOME SE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SMALL AREA ENHANCED WINDS ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRI THEN WILL RELAX SOME SAT AND SUN AS REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE OUT THE THE NW. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

680. AllStar17 12:12 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Good night everyone! Check early in the morning Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

681. Grothar 12:13 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
I haven't gone yet, just finished packing for by big trip. Anyone that has the time, please refer to my blog #177 earlier this evening. You might find it a bit interesting. Considering what may be happening to Erika. In case I don't hear from any one you, stay well. Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 57 Comments: 19554

682. aquak9 12:14 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
if you click on futuremet's name, it'll take you to his blog...and you can see he lists his home as Port St Lucie. Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25009

683. homelesswanderer 12:15 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting AllStar17: Things could get VERY interesting if Erika decides to avoid Hispaniola to the south. I agree. Looks like she might. Of course none of the models or anyone agrees with me. Lol. Just going by what Im seeing. :) Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

684. MiamiHurricanes09 12:15 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Good Evening!!! Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

685. CaneHunter031472 12:15 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Nice pocket of dry air inside the GOMEX Member Since: Agosto 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 895

686. Tazmanian 12:15 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
ERIKA gone by AM Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

687. TreasureCoastFl 12:16 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting midgulfmom: Sorry I missed it must have stepped away. Could you give me the "short" of it? Yes possible or no. Thanks didnt seem likely at all Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

689. CaneHunter031472 12:19 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Tazmanian: ERIKA gone by AM Agree Member Since: Agosto 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 895

690. HIEXPRESS 12:19 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer: If you go to edit on your menu bar. Go to find on this page and type in atmo's handle you can skip to his posts. :) Yes, and if you are looking for a specific post on a past blog, go to a search engine like Yahoo & type the poster's handle, a search string "a piece of the text you want to find" enclosed in quotation marks - it must be exact if you enclose it in quotes, and add site:wunderground.com The search string should be a few words together that you remember are unique to that post. It might not work with very recent posts, as the web "crawlers" might not have "seen" it yet. Member Since: Ottobre 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2153

691. TreasureCoastFl 12:19 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting aquak9: if you click on futuremet's name, it'll take you to his blog...and you can see he lists his home as Port St Lucie. oh really? I'm in St lucie too. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

692. Tazmanian 12:19 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
this new opera 10.0 RC is way better then 3.5 firefox opera 10.0 RC is vary fast it olny take sacs too lode a page Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111360

693. atmoaggie 12:19 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer: If you go to edit on your menu bar. Go to find on this page and type in atmo's handle you can skip to his posts. :) Am I being stalked? Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

694. MiamiHurricanes09 12:19 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Tazmanian: ERIKA gone by AM I agree completly Member Since: Settembre 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976

695. BurnedAfterPosting 12:22 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting Tazmanian: this new opera 10.0 RC is way better then 3.5 firefox opera 10.0 RC is vary fast it olny take sacs too lode a page and has more security holes in it that a pound of swiss cheese, no thanks I will stay with firefox. lol

696. TreasureCoastFl 12:23 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting atmoaggie: Am I being stalked? lol I was telling them that you had good answers for the whole splitting storm discussion last night. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

697. JLPR 12:23 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Erika refuses to die LLC firing up Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

698. msphar 12:24 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Sorry don't know how to post link. Its GOES WeST Floater #3 Member Since: Agosto 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 258

700. homelesswanderer 12:25 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting atmoaggie: Am I being stalked? Uh oh. Sorry didn't know they were stalkers. Lol. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

701. midgulfmom 12:25 AM GMT del 04 Settembre 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer: If you go to edit on your menu bar. Go to find on this page and type in atmo's handle you can skip to his posts. :) Thanks I'll try it. I still have dial up (:p) so it takes a while. I found his blog and asked on there just in case... Computer tweeb here. Member Since: Luglio 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

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