Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Relix:
I think Erika is about to breathe her last.

The so called death of Erika is way overated!

Quoting StormW:


Yep!

Hi Storm. Tornadoes...in the RF quadrant? Vortices (miniwhirls according to Fugita), but I thought tornadoes usually came with the passing of a hurricane?

Quoting P451:




A couple of rapid scan loops (each frame = 7 minutes)

That doesnt look good

Quoting P451:




A couple of rapid scan loops (each frame = 7 minutes)

Dont let Stormno see that ..we'll
never hear the end of it!

Quoting StormW:


Yep!

Good morning Mr. StormW aka weather god.. LOL

Storm may correct me here but from my observations the swirl in the Gomex south of AL/MS is in the upper levels and has little to no chance of reaching the surface. The Gomex prospect will be the splitting of the trough this weekend... Storm???

Quoting P451:




A couple of rapid scan loops (each frame = 7 minutes)

Thanks P451

we just got a special marine warning in Louisiana for gom. it said from pascagoula ms. southwest. don't see anything too dangerous in that area. does anyone else see anything?

Quoting mikatnight:


Hi Storm. Tornadoes...in the RF quadrant? Votecies (miniwhirls according to Fugita), but I thought tornadoes usually came with the passing of a hurricane?

The tornadoes from a landfalling hurricane are caused by the friction of high winds interacting with land. Since the highest winds are in the RF, the greatest chance of tornadoes is there too.

How is the bp doing se of New Orleans. Pat's favorite met., predicted something in the gulf were is kerry and stormno, no need to panic if they aren't on it.

Quoting StormW:


LOL!
Good morning to you too!

Did my email come through?

It sure did!

Quoting gordydunnot:
That sounds like one for Storm W, but I imagine that it boils down to most storms travel west or north or some combination of those two directions, so if a storm is moving in this direction at say 15 mph, you have to subtract 15 on one side and add 15 on the other . There are probably other forces involved but that's all I can add.

Max winds take into account for motion so if a 100mph storm is moving 15mph to the N then winds on the East would be 100, winds on the north would be ~85 out of the east and winds on the West would be ~70 out of the North, all things being equal and speeds are windspeed over the ground.

Did I get that right Storm?

Quoting stormsurge39:
The so called death of Erika is way overated!

aren't you a troll?... hmmmmmm

Off to the tropical rainforest.. then work.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Quoting StormW:


LOL!
Good morning to you too!

Did my email come through?

Mr Storm W when you do you think we will begin feeling the Rain from Erika here in Puerto Rico
Thanks in advance seems to me you know whats going on with Erika!

Is there a theoretical maximum for sustained winds?

I'm talking more hurricanes than tornadoes, of course.

(I say sustained, I'm sure gusts would be a lot harder to pin down.)

Quoting lurkn4yrs:




It sure did!

My email probably has not reached you because i did not send you one.
You should thank me for that.

Quoting sarahjola:
we just got a special marine warning in Louisiana for gom. it said from pascagoula ms. southwest. don't see anything too dangerous in that area. does anyone else see anything?

That is a special marine warning for tstms in offshore waters between pascagoula and sw pass , mississippi river....

Check your radar.

Apocalyps:

My email probably has not reached you because i did not send you one.
You should thank me for that.



Oh man! I'm so sad now.. Who else is gonna make my day so special..

From the NHC (doesn't seem to prove either point):

Tornado Facts

When associated with hurricanes, tornadoes are not usually accompanied by hail or a lot of lightning, clues that citizens in other parts of the country watch for.

Tornado production can occur for days after landfall when the tropical cyclone remnants maintain an identifiable low pressure circulation.

They can also develop at any time of the day or night during landfall. However, by 12 hours after landfall, tornadoes tend to occur mainly during daytime hours.

Yikes

Erika - it takes a licking but keeps on ticking ...

Quoting Relix:
I think Erika is about to breathe her last.

she did that and went to eternal sleep late last night... Erika is no more...no west winds and barely any south winds....just typical east to northeast winds as a wave-trough.

I am not kidding you when I tell you this has been one of the most beautiful days ever here here I live. Crystal clear blue sky! =O

back again,

went back read all the posts since this morning, you know what, 1 hour of reading, of (except few posts)..*i think* *i saw* *i see* *i predict* * i know * *now dead* *erka2* *convetion* *reborn*..hahaha

i knew we couldnt keep from bashing each other..

Quoting Relix:
I am not kidding you when I tell you this has been one of the most beautiful days ever here here I live. Crystal clear blue sky! =O

Do you see a beach anywhere close by?

apocalyps erika is blowing you right into empty space

Quoting NOLAGuy:
Sounds like most say it is right front quadrant would be the most accurate way to describe the most dangerous sector ...

http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanebook.pdf

Hurricane
Basics


The Right Side of the Storm
As a general rule of thumb, the hurricane's right
side (relative to the direction it is travelling) is
the most dangerous part of the storm because of
the additive effect of the hurricane wind speed and
speed of the larger atmospheric flow (the steering
winds). The increased winds on the right side
increase the storm surge. Tornadoes are also more
common here.
Looking at the figure above, pretend you are
standing behind the hurricane with your back to the
steering flow. In this case, the right side is the
eastern section of the hurricane. (If it were travelling
east to west, the right side would be the north
section.) The winds around the hurricane's eye are
moving in a counterclockwise fashion. At Point A,
the hurricane winds are nearly in line with the
steering wind, adding to the strength of the winds. For example, if the steering currents are 30 mph and the average
hurricane winds are 100 mph, the wind speed would be 130 mph at Point A. On the other hand, the winds at Point B
are moving opposite those of the steering wind and therefore slow to 70 mph (100 - 30 mph). Incidentally, National
Huricane Center forecasts take this effect into account in their official wind estimates.


[edit] since this is a .pdf, I was unable to link the illustration.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
apocalyps erika is blowing you right into empty space

To funny,i already live overthere.

Quoting StormW:


What they have stated is apparently true.

What I was trying to point out, is the mechanics of it.

Thanks Storm,

Appreciate the input. Lived in SE Fla my whole life and have always been told greatest chance for a tornado was after the main body of the storm passes (be damned if I can find any quotes to back me up though). I was thinking that vortices within the eyewall (miniwhirls, as Tetsuya Fugita described them in Hurricane Andrew) were being confused with the term “tornado” – a distinction I admittedly have a hard time understanding.

Maybe Erika will begin a loop today - south -then East - North and return West. Heck, that is about all we need in PR. A storm that just won't go away.

Isn't it possible that Erika's remnants could
drift Westward as far as Yucatan Channel before
she is picked up by the trough? Looking at the
surface map, the trough has weakened over the
south gulf and the front has basically washed out.