Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Erika likely soon; a weaker Jimena powers towards Baja

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:48 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009

Hurricane Jimena has weakened to a low-end Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, thanks to the collapse of its inner eyewall. The hurricane is undergoing a process common in intense hurricanes called an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where the eye shrinks to a size too small to be stable, resulting in the disintegration of the eyewall, and the formation of a new eyewall from one of the outer spiral bands. Once the new eyewall becomes stable tonight, Jimena has an opportunity to re-strengthen.

The latest set of 12Z model runs show little change in Jimena's track. The hurricane is still expected to make landfall Wednesday along Mexico's Baja Peninsula. If the hurricane makes landfall over the southern portion of Baja, it would likely be at major hurricane strength. However, SSTs cool quickly to 23°C at the middle of the Baja Peninsula, and Jimena would likely weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane if it makes a strike towards the middle of Baja. The computer models are split on what might happen once Jimena makes landfall on Baja, with one camp predicting a northeast turn bringing the storm over Mainland Mexico and eventually into Arizona, and the other camp stalling Jimena out over or just west of Baja. Regardless, the main threat from Jimena will be flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.

Figure 1. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Invest 94L almost Tropical Storm Erika
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating tropical wave 94L, about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So far this afternoon, they have found a broad circulation with top winds of 45 - 50 mph in heavy thunderstorms on the east side. The circulation may be too broad for 94L to be considered a tropical storm, but visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation is getting better defined, and 94L's heavy thunderstorms are moving closer to the center of circulation. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 12Z model runs are more in tune with the idea that 94L will become a tropical storm, with the latest ECMWF run now on board. The storm will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. Since most of 94L's heavy thunderstorms and high winds are on the east side, the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico will probably be spared tropical storm force winds from this system. The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite image taken at 12pm EDT, Tuesday Sep 1, 2009. Five major African tropical waves are apparent. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in this morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

Jeff Masters

Backing Down (Fotoguy77)

Part of the massive Station Fire backs down toward Sunland, Ca in this shot taken around 1am. The fire has burned through over 122,000 acres and killed two.

getting out (Fotoguy77)

This fire Chief from El Dorado County in Northern California is chased out of Aliso Canyon by a wall of flames. This was in the Acton area just off the 14 Freeway.

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3601. juniort 01:26 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
the southward drift is still happening...any thought on this? Member Since: Luglio 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 68

3602. BayouBorn1965 01:26 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting StormW: Connie, do me a favor...quit beating yourself up...nothing to be forgiven for! Thanks for being such a nice person! I look for your comments every day. Thanks for giving us the info that we need since we do not get it from our local media! Member Since: Luglio 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 74

3603. Thunderground 01:27 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
3583. Thank you Kman! Member Since: Agosto 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 89

3604. PensacolaDoug 01:27 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting ChannelRat: I hope Erika becomes a cat 5 and blows NOLA away! be better if it blows you and all the other trolls away. Member Since: Luglio 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4828

3605. centex 01:28 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
It's going back to 15N Member Since: Agosto 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

3606. BDADUDE 01:28 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting southernstorm: Im not sure what the odds are, but I have been shocked during a thunderstorm while on the computer. A lightning strike ran thru the lines down our street, lost a tv, a circuit breaker, and I had a red dot on my finger where the mouse got me. haha No human alive has ever thrown a mouse away faster! It must have been a wireless mouse. Member Since: Settembre 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602

3607. NWWNCAVL 01:28 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
LOL...Dangit...That sucks... Member Since: Agosto 20, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 391

3608. iluvjess 01:28 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
It likes 15N.

3609. Dakster 01:29 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Sometimes I'm shocked by what I read on the internet, but I've never noticed whether it was thunderstorming outside or not... Maybe Erika will just disspate and become nothing... Then we won't have to worry about where she goes and who gets smacked by her. Member Since: Marzo 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4938

3610. katzanddogz 01:29 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
#3540: I won't quote you due to the ignorance of your statement. Though, I will put you on ignore and hope you get banned for even making that suggestion! Member Since: Febbraio 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 44

3611. Brillig 01:29 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Anyone notice the winds are in the opposite direction between St. Croix and St. John's between the start and ending of the HH run? Looks like the circulation on the west side may be finally getting organized. Member Since: Giugno 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 398

3613. VegasRain 01:29 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Brillig: I don't think I've ever seen a center where you've marked Old Center. It certainly wasn't marked as such in the NHC advisories, but it's there on Radar and Satellite. It looks to have run ahead of the convection to the East. So my assumption is that this was the Old Center of Circulation or some vortex that outran the main convection. It looks like a new center is trying to form about 140 miles or so East of Guadalupe. To me it appears that during the night the NHC lost track of the center which ended up moving quickly WSW and became exposed. That's just a guess.. Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 455

3614. hurricanehanna 01:29 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
So....what exactly is Erika doing at this point? stalling, moving west? Hard to tell from the sat images. Member Since: Settembre 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3214

3615. stormpetrol 01:29 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Area around 9n/43w looks like it could have a closed circulation, some gusty winds and convection is firing in the area on Satelite. Member Since: Aprile 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400

3616. hurricanehanna 01:30 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting StormW: You betcha! Only this time, I moved...and didn't tell Cantore! Good man! Member Since: Settembre 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3214

3617. surfmom 01:30 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting OnTheFlats: LOL, what is a sheeple? I mean think I know what one is but I'd love to hear your definition. BTW, did you check out all the pics from Hurricane Bill on Surfline? Nice pics!! I surfed Ft. Pierce and it was going off Saturday morning and I heard Sattelite Beach was firing too! Sheeple are people who behave in the manner of a flock of sheep. they have no mind of their own and will follow the flock off the side of a cliff --if that's what they are being told. Always question Authority. are you a Ft. P local? - my son went over for Bill and for Danny (I'm a gulfster) Member Since: Luglio 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

3618. mikatnight 01:30 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting CaneHunter031472: Slim, but the changes of your computer getting FRIED are about 90% I would disconnect and shut down the computer if you can. Had to jump in here. As an electrician I'm somewhat qualified to give a correct answer. If you're concerned about lightning (and if you live in Florida - the lightning capital of the world - there's good reason to be), then consider installing lightning protection at your main electrical panel. It's relatively cheap (around $100 plus labor) and quick to install. Work should be done by a qualified electrician. Also note that surge protection (from plug strips or a UPS) will not protect against lightning strikes. Those devices are designed to protect you from your utility company. Hope this helps... Member Since: Ottobre 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1971

3619. Dakster 01:30 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Hey Stormw - I just found out Cantore is planning on doing a special live broadcast from the Ft. Meyer's area. Are you planning on attending? Member Since: Marzo 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4938

3620. taco2me61 01:30 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting connie1976: I have to take my 3 year old out to play...I can't wait to come back later and see what the models say about this storm...lol... Have a great day and we'll se you later today Taco :0) Member Since: Luglio 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763

3621. Brillig 01:31 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting VegasRain: It certainly wasn't marked as such in the NHC advisories, but it's there on Radar and Satellite. It looks to have run ahead of the convection to the East. So my assumption is that this was the Old Center of Circulation or some vortex that outran the main convection. It looks like a new center is trying to form about 140 miles or so East of Guadalupe. To me it appears that during the night the NHC lost track of the center which ended up moving quickly WSW and became exposed. That's just a guess.. Well, yes, there is an "it" there, but I wouldn't call it the center of circulation. That looks like a peripheral eddy to me. Member Since: Giugno 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 398

3622. jpsb 01:32 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting bocahurricane: Actually I don't have major issues I just can't stand ignorance when it comes to religion and bringing up such ignorance in a forum such as this is not appropriate. I am not trying to start an arguement but felt I needed to say something. See ya later, I have to head out for the day...good luck to those in the islands today hope the weather isn' too bad Quoting connie1976: could the reason why the models are going all crazy is because this system won't ever develope into anything? (I'm sorry if this is a stupid question...I'm just learning) I am a rookie too, lol, but maybe I can help. And if I get it wrong hopefully an expert can correct me. Ericka does not have a well defined low level center of circulation. To be a real storm Erika needs three circulations. One at the surface, one at midlevel and one in the upper atmosphere. That allows the warm moist air to go all the way up (and out) of the storm and gives the storm energy. It also allows upper level steering currents to steer the storm. Since Erika does not have that she is being steered by lower level steering and the lower level steering is to the west or south west. Until Erika becomes a real storm the models will have a dificult time with her. I hope that is correct and I hope that helps. jim Member Since: Giugno 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 578

3623. Dakster 01:32 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I wonder if JLPR is putting his shutters up at the moment? Member Since: Marzo 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4938

3624. forestwedder 01:33 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Still dead calm up in the middle of Dominica. The sun has been with us for the last few hours & it is extremly humid. Can't report on wind direction as there is no cloud movement to go by. My office in Barbados has recorded over 2" of rain already. Member Since: Luglio 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 25

3625. taco2me61 01:33 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting StormW: You betcha! Only this time, I moved...and didn't tell Cantore! LOL but just to let you know he will find you.... Member Since: Luglio 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 2763

3626. homegirl 01:34 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Here's a good question for those who really know their stuff. On the radar, and visual images, you can see a low level circulation, and it's moving WSW. If this is Erika's LLC (I think it is) then Erika is definately moving WSW for the moment. However, what if that is no longer the LLC and a new one has formed under the convection, which the low level swirl seen on visual is now rotating around, giving the appearance of the WSW movement?? Is this at all possible? Member Since: Agosto 1, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 7425

3627. oddspeed 01:34 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
looks like SW movement in last 12 hours here: Erika going SW Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 225

3628. DellOperator 01:34 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting BioWeather: Could someone please explain the difference between the early cycle models and the late cycle models - or give me a link where I can go read it myself? Thank you! Link It's all in the crunch time the computers take to plot solutions. Member Since: Maggio 31, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 175

3629. homelesswanderer 01:34 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting superweatherman: history show this may be a GOM storm Everybody always forgets this lady when posting that graphic. Yes, yes, I know, that'll never happen. Nobody knows where Erika's going. I'm freaking out, etc. etc. etc. Did I forget any? ;) Just posting it on the " If you forget about history you're doomed to repeat it." premise. OR As Bill Murray said in What About Bob, " If I pretend it happens maybe it won't." Lol. Peace. :) Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3630. jpsb 01:35 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting StormW: Connie, do me a favor...quit beating yourself up...nothing to be forgiven for! yeah, what he said. You're fine, the other poster? Not so much. Member Since: Giugno 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 578

3632. 69Viking 01:36 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Where's the Doc? I would think we're long overdue for an update! Member Since: Agosto 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2247

3633. BioWeather 01:36 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting DellOperator: Link It's all in the crunch time the computers take to plot solutions. Thank you! Member Since: Settembre 3, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 365

3634. Chiggy007 01:39 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Any take on the wave about to emerge from Africa?

3635. mikatnight 01:37 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Oh BTW, Don't know if anyone else posted it, but today is the anniversary of the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. As far as I can tell, still the most powerful TC in recorded history to ever make landfall anywhere in the world. Member Since: Ottobre 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1971

3636. homegirl 01:37 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
The A/B high was much stronger and there weren't any troughs to turn Rita N/NW. I agree we don't know where Erika is going, and I wouldn't rule anything out, but current steering and A/B high suggests she will turn to the NW, it just depends on when and how strong she will be before then. Member Since: Agosto 1, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 7425

3637. weathermanwannabe 01:39 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Good Morning Troops......Erika will not be easy to track until she strengthens and gets some motion going so forget the current model runs or forecast points until she figures out what she is going to do. She may meander around for a while, She may strengthen, She may dissipate and succumb to the sheer, She may blow up and surprise everyone......All Bets are Off for the time being. Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6695

3638. ClearwaterSteve 01:40 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Hey StormW Good Morning Sir. Wow. Not happy about the models right now. Seems to put FL back in Play. The fact that we are outside the five day cone bothers me. LOL. To me the only player is the High. What is your take on its set up. Thank you.

3639. TheCaneWhisperer 01:43 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009

3640. cirrocumulus 01:41 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
The lower level conditions left from previous systems and current systems influence the upper level conditions that are used by the models. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

3641. surfmom 01:42 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting mikatnight: Had to jump in here. As an electrician I'm somewhat qualified to give a correct answer. If you're concerned about lightning (and if you live in Florida - the lightning capital of the world - there's good reason to be), then consider installing lightning protection at your main electrical panel. It's relatively cheap (around $100 plus labor) and quick to install. Work should be done by a qualified electrician. Also note that surge protection (from plug strips or a UPS) will not protect against lightning strikes. Those devices are designed to protect you from your utility company. Hope this helps... That's how I am set-up and it makes a difference!!! When our house was hit a few years ago, the boom and power of the bolt was sooo strong I was literally blown out of my chair. All the hair on the cats were sticking straight out..... but thanks to the thingy on the eletrical panel...... no equipment, including the weather station was fried... Member Since: Luglio 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

3642. homelesswanderer 01:43 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting homegirl: The A/B high was much stronger and there weren't any troughs to turn Rita N/NW. I agree we don't know where Erika is going, and I wouldn't rule anything out, but current steering and A/B high suggests she will turn to the NW, it just depends on when and how strong she will be before then. AH! So Bob was right! ;) Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3644. Relix 01:44 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Dakster: I wonder if JLPR is putting his shutters up at the moment? Nah don't think so. At least I am not planning on putting them up for a 40mph or less tropical storm. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

3645. justalurker 01:44 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Erika looks like she is shrinking minute by minute, just like a man whos been in a cold pool for a long time..current trend, DMIN=weak DMAX=strong..i personally see this happening for the next couple of days.. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

3646. PackerFan2 01:45 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Dakster: I wonder if JLPR is putting his shutters up at the moment? No need for that

3647. hydrus 01:45 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting mikatnight: Oh BTW, Don't know if anyone else posted it, but today is the anniversary of the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. As far as I can tell, still the most powerful TC in recorded history to ever make landfall anywhere in the world. I thought Australia held that distinction. Member Since: Settembre 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14297

3649. VegasRain 01:46 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Brillig: Well, yes, there is an "it" there, but I wouldn't call it the center of circulation. That looks like a peripheral eddy to me. Could certainly be a possibility, however I think it is a bit larger and more well defined to be an eddy. Looks a lot like a weakening exposed COC. But without having the visible imagery overnight, we may never know. Regardless, the new center is likely to form under the convection to the East and since it is now at about the same latitude as Guadalupe, Erika will probably pass close to Antigua and Barbuda. The models will have to be adjusted slightly southward as a result. VI and PR could be in her path, but she wont have much time to intensify beyond a strong tropical storm. I am wondering whether that High moving over the east coast will hold for the next 5-7 days?? Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 455

3650. centex 01:46 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
It's a cone buster and short term buster less than 24 hours. I wonder what data is missing? Member Since: Agosto 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

3651. PortABeachBum 01:46 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting superweatherman: history show this may be a GOM storm It also shows it may NOT be a GOM storm! Member Since: Ottobre 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 198

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