Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Erika likely soon; a weaker Jimena powers towards Baja

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:48 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009

Hurricane Jimena has weakened to a low-end Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, thanks to the collapse of its inner eyewall. The hurricane is undergoing a process common in intense hurricanes called an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where the eye shrinks to a size too small to be stable, resulting in the disintegration of the eyewall, and the formation of a new eyewall from one of the outer spiral bands. Once the new eyewall becomes stable tonight, Jimena has an opportunity to re-strengthen.

The latest set of 12Z model runs show little change in Jimena's track. The hurricane is still expected to make landfall Wednesday along Mexico's Baja Peninsula. If the hurricane makes landfall over the southern portion of Baja, it would likely be at major hurricane strength. However, SSTs cool quickly to 23°C at the middle of the Baja Peninsula, and Jimena would likely weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane if it makes a strike towards the middle of Baja. The computer models are split on what might happen once Jimena makes landfall on Baja, with one camp predicting a northeast turn bringing the storm over Mainland Mexico and eventually into Arizona, and the other camp stalling Jimena out over or just west of Baja. Regardless, the main threat from Jimena will be flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.

Figure 1. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Invest 94L almost Tropical Storm Erika
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating tropical wave 94L, about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So far this afternoon, they have found a broad circulation with top winds of 45 - 50 mph in heavy thunderstorms on the east side. The circulation may be too broad for 94L to be considered a tropical storm, but visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation is getting better defined, and 94L's heavy thunderstorms are moving closer to the center of circulation. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 12Z model runs are more in tune with the idea that 94L will become a tropical storm, with the latest ECMWF run now on board. The storm will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. Since most of 94L's heavy thunderstorms and high winds are on the east side, the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico will probably be spared tropical storm force winds from this system. The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite image taken at 12pm EDT, Tuesday Sep 1, 2009. Five major African tropical waves are apparent. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in this morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

Jeff Masters

Backing Down (Fotoguy77)

Part of the massive Station Fire backs down toward Sunland, Ca in this shot taken around 1am. The fire has burned through over 122,000 acres and killed two.

getting out (Fotoguy77)

This fire Chief from El Dorado County in Northern California is chased out of Aliso Canyon by a wall of flames. This was in the Acton area just off the 14 Freeway.

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3351. connie1976 11:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I made that statement because I am wishing the stupid thing away and I am hoping that lots of people will tell me it's going away! lol Member Since: Settembre 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672

3352. stormsurge39 11:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
IF Erika were to stay south of PR , over open water, and thats a big IF, how bad is the wind sheer be?

3353. VegasRain 11:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
NHC says that the center has relocated to 16.5N. about .5° South of the previous advisory. Looks like if it can get its act together it will pass through the Islands and possibly interact with Puerto Rico. Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 455

3354. centex 11:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
It likes 15N Member Since: Agosto 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

3355. divdog 12:00 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
nobody knows where it is going yet. wishing it away won't change the path Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755

3356. Chicklit 12:01 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2009 BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 59.5W OR ABOUT 140 NM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 02/1200 UTC MOVING W AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ERIKA APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED BUT CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. NUMEROUS STRONG,CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 15.5N57W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA,FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 54W-60W. Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

3357. connie1976 12:01 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting divdog: nobody knows where it is going yet. wishing it away won't change the path ...hey, maybe I have secret powers!.... ;) Member Since: Settembre 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672

3358. TheCaneWhisperer 12:02 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting VegasRain: NHC says that the center has relocated to 16.5N. about .5° South of the previous advisory. Looks like if it can get its act together it will pass through the Islands and possibly interact with Puerto Rico. Nothing like a fresh set of garbage model runs.

3359. JupiterFL 12:02 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting connie1976: ...hey, maybe I have secret powers!.... ;) or maybe you just have a secret. Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

3361. WeatherBubba 12:03 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting presslord: Didja ever notice..that ya almost never see folks from TX, AL, MS, LA, GA, SC, or NC or the islands...get all jacked up about systems so early on? Could be 'cause it feels like we've been watching this storm for several months...

3362. TightLines305 12:03 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
God... I cant stand Julie Durda

3363. HuracandelCaribe 12:03 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Guys don worry how disorganize she is right know. She is trying to consolidate the multiple circulations. IF she can survive this prosses then we have another Hortense here in PR. Hortense passed over Guadalupe as e very weak tropical storm Member Since: Agosto 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 169

3365. LemieT 12:05 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Maybe this is just me but I find the thunderstorm activity in disorganized systems to be much more spectacular than some organized ones. This lightning is tremendous!!!!!!!! Member Since: Agosto 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 118

3366. Chicklit 12:06 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Still primarily a good rainmaker for the islands, don't you think? So far, we've had best case scenarios this season. Let's hope our luck doesn't run out! Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

3367. gator23 12:06 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting TightLines305: God... I cant stand Julie Durda Just saw her. She sucks Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

3368. JupiterFL 12:07 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting leftovers: back in the sixties there was a fortune teller from miami who specialized on tropical weather. every yr her predictions were front page. she was good. she is probally long and gone. Miss Cleo? Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

3369. gator23 12:08 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting WeatherBubba: Could be 'cause it feels like we've been watching this storm for several months... no, I almost exclusively see people from LA,TX,MS,SC get jacked up early on. Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

3370. java162 12:08 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
3360. P451 12:02 PM GMT on September 02, 2009 now thaty is confusing! so what is the radar showing off the north coast of guadeloupe?antliles radar Member Since: Luglio 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 265

3371. gaweatherboi 12:08 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting WeatherBubba: Could be 'cause it feels like we've been watching this storm for several months... We here in Georgia never get hit so i dont get to excited until it is for certain to hit Georgia. But you never know. Member Since: Agosto 12, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 108

3372. gator23 12:09 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting divdog: nobody knows where it is going yet. wishing it away won't change the path wow how insightful. Thank you for your analysis. Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

3373. justalurker 12:10 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting gator23: Just saw her. She sucks last time i saw she was making money doing whatever she does..instead of posting on a blog making any sense. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

3374. sugarsand 12:10 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
"The forecast track is a very uncertain move to the west and northwest eventually toward east of the Bahamas. Many models have shifted west overnight, but the model spread north to south is much more varied than prior storms this season. Therefore those across the Bahamas and southeast will want to monitor it over the week. Because of the slow forward motion it could take a while. Right now I would not focus on any one model, all of them are a bit suspect right now past 2 or 3 days." From the Central Florida Hurricane Center 2009 Member Since: Settembre 13, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 2953

3375. Chicklit 12:11 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
now this is nasty... Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

3376. tropicfreak 12:12 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Erika looks like a fuzz ball. Member Since: Settembre 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6566

3378. VegasRain 12:13 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Looks like Antigua and Barbuda are going to have a very windy and rainy day. It's going to take Erika a while to get organized, but I'm very impressed with the convection. It doesn't seem to be struggling with dry air.. So I think this will slowly develop. I'll have to look more closely at shear analysis to see if the GFDL and HWRF intensities are correct. Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2005 Posts: 12 Comments: 455

3381. Chiggy007 12:13 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Any takes on the wave about to emerge from Africa? Huge convection and lots of rotation....!!!!!

3382. surfmom 12:14 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
California: SMOKE,CHOKE and SOAK Member Since: Luglio 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

3383. surfmom 12:17 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting P451: I wonder how OZ is doing! what he likes I suppose - risk behavior Member Since: Luglio 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

3384. divdog 12:16 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting gator23: wow how insightful. Thank you for your analysis. no problem glad to see you listened to the expert Member Since: Agosto 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 755

3385. homelesswanderer 12:16 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting presslord: Didja ever notice..that ya almost never see folks from TX, AL, MS, LA, GA, SC, or NC or the islands...get all jacked up about systems so early on?... Hmmmmph! You've never heard of us gulfofmexicodoomsdaycultists? OH NO! Here comes another one! Lol. I come in peace. :) Good morning everyone! All is well here today. Although its kinda weird enough to think the world might be ending. Cue the Twilight Zone music... 58.1 �F Clear Humidity: 91% Dew Point: 56 �F Wind: 0.0 mph Lol. Ah. No worries. I recognize the humidity. Phew! ;) Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665

3388. tramp96 12:19 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Member Since: Agosto 15, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 331

3389. tikikopamsxm 12:21 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Lots of wind here in St Martin, hope Erika will not strengthen! Member Since: Luglio 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 24

3390. kmanislander 12:21 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Good morning everyone I see that Erika continues to confound. It looks like a system that is being sheared from the NW and when you look at the shear map it would appear that the off center anticyclone that accompanies the system may be imparting some shear on that side. Unfortunately quikscat missed the storm this morning but it looks to be trying to regroup at this time. It would now appear to be headed into the Caribbean between 16 and 17N which, ironically, is exactly where I called for it to enter the basin from last Friday evening ! Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

3391. gator23 12:21 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting justalurker: last time i saw she was making money doing whatever she does..instead of posting on a blog making any sense. Phil Ferro was on the blog about 2 nights ago and his blog was pretty insightful. Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1994

3392. tornadofan 12:22 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting P451: I have no idea outside of saying what my mind sees: A low level swirl picked up on radar. This system might have had multiple low level vortices and maybe one got ejected far out by the shear a while back. You can see it on short wave imagery as well: Somebody reposted Chris's undressing on yesterday's blog. This is starting to look a lot like Chris. Member Since: Aprile 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345

3393. KBH 12:22 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Did Erika change direction to the south or is the TS activity south of centre?..feeling and seeing the effects here in B'dos Member Since: Agosto 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 278

3394. FLWeatherFreak91 12:22 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting tramp96: oh god Member Since: Dicembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

3395. sporteguy03 12:24 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting kmanislander: Good morning everyone I see that Erika continues to confound. It looks like a system that is being sheared from the NW and when you look at the shear map it would appear that the off center anticyclone that accompanies the system may be imparting some shear on that side. Unfortunately quikscat missed the storm this morning but it looks to be trying to regruop at this time. It would now appear to be headed into the Caribbean between 16 and 17N which, ironically, is exactly where I called for it to enter the basin from last Friday evening ! good call Kman. Member Since: Luglio 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 4824

3396. chucky7777 12:23 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer: Quoting presslord: Didja ever notice..that ya almost never see folks from TX, AL, MS, LA, GA, SC, or NC or the islands...get all jacked up about systems so early on?... Hmmmmph! You've never heard of us gulfofmexicodoomsdaycultists? OH NO! Here comes another one! Lol. I come in peace. :) Good morning everyone! All is well here today. Although its kinda weird enough to think the world might be ending. Cue the Twilight Zone music... 58.1 �F Clear Humidity: 91% Dew Point: 56 �F Wind: 0.0 mph Lol. Ah. No worries. I recognize the humidity. Phew! ;) like i said earlier i apologize.... It was intended for other actual doomsdayers on this blog Member Since: Ottobre 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 174

3397. wcoastfl 12:23 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting leftovers: back in the sixties there was a fortune teller from miami who specialized on tropical weather. every yr her predictions were front page. she was good. she is probably long and gone. Quoting Jupiter FL: Miss Cleo? Quoting Jupiter FL: Miss Cleo? Yes, Either Miss Cleo or Dione Warwick. But went bankrupt siting unforeseen personal economic conditions.

3398. FLWeatherFreak91 12:25 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
This is from this morning's AFD out of Melbourne. This speaks volumes to me: THU-SAT...SRN EXTENSION OF FULL LAT ERN CONUS TROUGH IN THE GOMEX WILL FILL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE DLM RIDGE EAST OF FL STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL CAUSE MID/UPR LVL FLOW TO BACK MORE TO SRLY AND WEAKEN AS HGHTS GENERALLY RISE BOTH OVER AND ON EITHER SIDE OF FL. AT THE SFC...THE TROUGH XTNDNG FROM ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD INTO FL WILL VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MEAN PWATS REMAINING ON THE HIGH SIDE...ESPECIALLY THU. GIVEN THE TREND FOR 3RD/4TH PD POPS TO RISE AS THEY TURN INTO 1ST/2ND PERIOD..WAS TEMPTED TO RAISE THE 60 THAT I HAD INHERITED...BUT SEEING HOW THIS WOULD MAKE OUR POPS HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HOLD SWAY WITH WHAT WE HAVE...WHICH IS ABOUT 10-15 PCT ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS TREND SLOWLY BACK TWD CLIMO (40) BY SAT AS THE TROUGH AND ITS ASCD MOISTURE BAND WANE AND MID LVL HGHTS RISE A BIT MORE. Member Since: Dicembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3461

3399. Grothar 12:25 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting reedzone: The anticyclone is back with Erika, I don't expect it to degenerate to a wave until the anticyclone moves away. Morning Reed! Remember reading your blogs last night where you said this might happen and a lot of people jumped on you. Good call! Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19546

3400. PSL2007 12:26 PM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91: This is from this morning's AFD out of Melbourne. This speaks volumes to me: THU-SAT...SRN EXTENSION OF FULL LAT ERN CONUS TROUGH IN THE GOMEX WILL FILL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE DLM RIDGE EAST OF FL STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL CAUSE MID/UPR LVL FLOW TO BACK MORE TO SRLY AND WEAKEN AS HGHTS GENERALLY RISE BOTH OVER AND ON EITHER SIDE OF FL. AT THE SFC...THE TROUGH XTNDNG FROM ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD INTO FL WILL VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MEAN PWATS REMAINING ON THE HIGH SIDE...ESPECIALLY THU. GIVEN THE TREND FOR 3RD/4TH PD POPS TO RISE AS THEY TURN INTO 1ST/2ND PERIOD..WAS TEMPTED TO RAISE THE 60 THAT I HAD INHERITED...BUT SEEING HOW THIS WOULD MAKE OUR POPS HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL HOLD SWAY WITH WHAT WE HAVE...WHICH IS ABOUT 10-15 PCT ABOVE GUIDANCE. POPS TREND SLOWLY BACK TWD CLIMO (40) BY SAT AS THE TROUGH AND ITS ASCD MOISTURE BAND WANE AND MID LVL HGHTS RISE A BIT MORE. Really...what does it say in layman's terms?

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