Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Erika likely soon; a weaker Jimena powers towards Baja

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:48 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009

Hurricane Jimena has weakened to a low-end Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, thanks to the collapse of its inner eyewall. The hurricane is undergoing a process common in intense hurricanes called an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where the eye shrinks to a size too small to be stable, resulting in the disintegration of the eyewall, and the formation of a new eyewall from one of the outer spiral bands. Once the new eyewall becomes stable tonight, Jimena has an opportunity to re-strengthen.

The latest set of 12Z model runs show little change in Jimena's track. The hurricane is still expected to make landfall Wednesday along Mexico's Baja Peninsula. If the hurricane makes landfall over the southern portion of Baja, it would likely be at major hurricane strength. However, SSTs cool quickly to 23°C at the middle of the Baja Peninsula, and Jimena would likely weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane if it makes a strike towards the middle of Baja. The computer models are split on what might happen once Jimena makes landfall on Baja, with one camp predicting a northeast turn bringing the storm over Mainland Mexico and eventually into Arizona, and the other camp stalling Jimena out over or just west of Baja. Regardless, the main threat from Jimena will be flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.

Figure 1. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Invest 94L almost Tropical Storm Erika
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating tropical wave 94L, about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So far this afternoon, they have found a broad circulation with top winds of 45 - 50 mph in heavy thunderstorms on the east side. The circulation may be too broad for 94L to be considered a tropical storm, but visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation is getting better defined, and 94L's heavy thunderstorms are moving closer to the center of circulation. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 12Z model runs are more in tune with the idea that 94L will become a tropical storm, with the latest ECMWF run now on board. The storm will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. Since most of 94L's heavy thunderstorms and high winds are on the east side, the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico will probably be spared tropical storm force winds from this system. The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite image taken at 12pm EDT, Tuesday Sep 1, 2009. Five major African tropical waves are apparent. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in this morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

Jeff Masters

Backing Down (Fotoguy77)

Part of the massive Station Fire backs down toward Sunland, Ca in this shot taken around 1am. The fire has burned through over 122,000 acres and killed two.

getting out (Fotoguy77)

This fire Chief from El Dorado County in Northern California is chased out of Aliso Canyon by a wall of flames. This was in the Acton area just off the 14 Freeway.

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3101. InTheCone 09:57 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting IKE: LOL...oh well...had to make a dollar in my job. Good coffee this morning.... I just try to stay out of the fray when they get like that, you were absolutletly correct about the ECMWF's performance this year, but they didn't want any of it! Just wait until they get rolling today, going to be nuts with killer 'casters of every description! Enjoy your day all, everyone in the path - stay safe!! Member Since: Settembre 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979

3102. stormsurge39 09:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I dont think anybody should be making any long term forecast tracks, since the NHC is uncertian of long term track of Erica right now!

3103. WPBHurricane05 09:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Latest VDM has Erika's pressure at 1009 mb. Member Since: Luglio 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 7929

3104. apocalyps 10:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting WPBHurricane05: Latest VDM has Erika's pressure at 1009 mb. With that kind of pressure she could have a heartfaillure Member Since: Maggio 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 960

3105. waccamaw16 10:06 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
she has mutiple centers and until she gets one center ,then she should start to intensify some

3106. Cavin Rawlins 10:07 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
its breezy, overcast and raining. But it would of been better off if Erika move to the north and brought us some rain but the way how it looks with motion and convection...it maybe more than what we bargain for. The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.1N, 62.3W or about 63.1 miles (101.6 km) Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

3107. IKE 10:08 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
SSD continues to have problems updating satellite images Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

3108. A4Guy 10:10 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting BahaHurican: Geez, baje, I am just now seeing what u are talking about the SW drop. It's REALLY obvious because of the blackout; one minute it's headed more or less NW, the next it's headed direct for Barbados.... plus it's spreading out too... looks like most of the Lessers are going to get a little something from Erica. Don't confuse the convection flaring up to the south with a southern movement. the center could be wobbling, sure...and it's nearly impossible to locate a center..but the center is probably moving more west than anything (and prob wnw). Member Since: Giugno 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 646

3109. palmasdelrio 10:10 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Weather456: its breezy, overcast and raining. But it would of been better off if Erika move to the north and brought us some rain but the way how it looks with motion and convection...it maybe more than what we bargain for. The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.1N, 62.3W or about 63.1 miles (101.6 km) what island are you located at? Member Since: Maggio 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 178

3110. stormsurge39 10:10 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I said something last night about Erika making a jog to the SW around 11pm and i was told i was just seeing things!! hmmmm

3111. Cavin Rawlins 10:11 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting palmasdelrio: what island are you located at? Saint Kitts Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

3112. presslord 10:11 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting A4Guy: Don't confuse the convection flaring up to the south with a southern movement. the center could be wobbling, sure...and it's nearly impossible to locate a center..but the center is probably moving more west than anything (and prob wnw). i take your point...but...it sure looks sw to my old eyes... Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

3113. A4Guy 10:12 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting IKE: SSD continues to have problems updating satellite images I am so glad you said that. i have been having issues for a couple of days - posted abt it here a few times, but nobody responded. : ( Member Since: Giugno 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 646

3114. tkeith 10:13 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting presslord: i take your point...but...it sure looks sw to my old eyes... you're up early... Member Since: novembre 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

3115. Relix 10:13 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
So.. now that it's freaking coming to Puerto Rico and I am eating crow... what the heck has gone on for the last hours? Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

3116. presslord 10:13 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting tkeith: you're up early... Kelly's dog...we need to talk...You around this weekend? Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

3117. justalurker 10:14 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
good morning, why is erika more SW this morning? and crawling? what is happening making her do this? Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

3118. Cavin Rawlins 10:14 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
if she continues west, those will not be NE of the islands. but thankfully she remains a moderate TS. Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

3119. Relix 10:14 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
What's going on guys? Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

3120. IKE 10:15 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting A4Guy: I am so glad you said that. i have been having issues for a couple of days - posted abt it here a few times, but nobody responded. : ( It's updating on the floater of Erika, but not the full tropical Atlantic view. Yesterday afternoon it wouldn't update on the floaters. I noticed on the NHC satellite page they added flash, which is good. I have issues with Java sometimes with the latest Firefox(out-of-memory errors). Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

3121. tkeith 10:15 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting presslord: Kelly's dog...we need to talk...You around this weekend? yep...I'll call you. Member Since: novembre 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

3122. Relix 10:15 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Weather456: if she continues west, those will not be NE of the islands. but thankfully she remains a moderate TS. Oh sh... it did move WSW? Oh wow... wow. Why is she weakening? I just woke up I need details! lol Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

3123. BahaHurican 10:15 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting A4Guy: Don't confuse the convection flaring up to the south with a southern movement. the center could be wobbling, sure...and it's nearly impossible to locate a center..but the center is probably moving more west than anything (and prob wnw). Did u actually go LOOK at the imagery? Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17689

3124. Cavin Rawlins 10:16 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Erika is so weird she could pull a Danny, Jeanne or Fay. Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

3125. Cavin Rawlins 10:17 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Relix: Oh sh... it did move WSW? Oh wow... wow. Why is she weakening? I just woke up I need details! lol she has multiple centers and official one remains on the edge of the convection Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

3126. Relix 10:17 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Weather456: Erika is so weird she could pull a Danny, Jeanne or Fay. I have been reading W456... The center moved WSW It weakened? How so? It's now gonna get closer or pass over the islands? Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

3127. stormsurge39 10:18 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
The NHC SAYS that it Appears that the COC has reformed SW of previous!

3128. Relix 10:18 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Weather456: she has multiple centers and official one remains on the edge of the convection Thank you. Well... this is weird. lol Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

3129. IKE 10:18 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
6Z NOGAPS.... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

3130. presslord 10:19 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
keith...cool... local met (not Chucktown, but his station) just did a very levelheaded Erika update...says Monday we'll have a decent handle on her...which makes pretty much everything said here 'til then for entertainment purposes only... Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

3131. Cavin Rawlins 10:20 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Relix: I have been reading W456... The center moved WSW It weakened? How so? It's now gonna get closer or pass over the islands? HHs determine it was relocated around 3AM Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

3132. RJT185 10:21 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
So Hugo or Georges ... 50/50 until steering or the storm's fwd speeds resolves a bit better. Member Since: Agosto 31, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 250

3133. SavannahStorm 10:21 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
HH Recon deserves a medal for this one. Trying to find a true center in that mess is like finding a good needle in a stack of broken needles. Member Since: Settembre 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2135

3134. Relix 10:23 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Weather456: HHs determine it was relocated around 3AM Yeah I've been reading pages. Wow now THIS is truly unexpected. I woke up and BAM, surprise. If it entered the caribbean it would be a crazy trip to be honest. Is it expected to weaken? What a stressful morning, I thought it would be at 18N already =( Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

3135. stormsurge39 10:23 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
While Erika is picking which shoes(center) shes going to wear, will this make her weaker in the meantime?

3136. justalurker 10:23 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
is the trough splitting already? or eroding at GOM? Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

3137. RJT185 10:25 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Next HH recon mission flies out when?? thanks. Member Since: Agosto 31, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 250

3139. kachina 10:28 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting IKE: I have issues with Java sometimes with the latest Firefox(out-of-memory errors). I've been having that problem with Firefox too. I hope they find a fix soon! PS - Good morning everyone!

3140. connie1976 10:29 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Am I the only one who thinks that this storm isn't going to last much longer? lol....I really think it will be an open wave soon... Member Since: Settembre 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672

3141. Relix 10:29 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting leftovers: eventually the disaster crew will get what they want but as it is now all is well good morning Are you serious? All is well? It's getting closer to us in the Antilles that's not good at all. be it strong or weak trust me there will be disasters at certain points especially thanks to the movement. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

3142. IKE 10:30 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
GFS 6Z @ 138 hours shows Erika just SE of JFV/WS.... Member Since: Giugno 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37047

3143. StormHunter89 10:33 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting IKE: GFS 6Z @ 138 hours shows Erika just SE of JFV/WS.... And It shows a vigorous storm out in the mid atlantic. Member Since: Agosto 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 30

3144. BahaHurican 10:34 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting presslord: keith...cool... local met (not Chucktown, but his station) just did a very levelheaded Erika update...says Monday we'll have a decent handle on her...which makes pretty much everything said here 'til then for entertainment purposes only... Lol.... only if u live in SC..... Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17689

3145. kachina 10:34 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009

3146. AllStar17 10:34 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Erika just refuses to follow its forecast. Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

3147. stormsurge39 10:35 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting connie1976: Am I the only one who thinks that this storm isn't going to last much longer? lol....I really think it will be an open wave soon... I read that if a high builds to the N of Erika then it will help it with sheer. If it doesnt the sheer will be rough on it.

3149. bajelayman2 10:37 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Cloudy (especially to the North) and drizzly here in Barbados. She is now rolling in. Ah well,off to work and kids to school. Authorities here are fairly....okay I'll stop there. Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 468

3150. justalurker 10:38 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting AllStar17: Erika just refuses to follow its forecast. YES, noticed they moved the forecast points more west this morning.. Link Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

3151. AllStar17 10:38 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting IKE: GFS 6Z @ 138 hours shows Erika just SE of JFV/WS.... Oh...no! GOM would not be good! Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

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