Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting msphar:
the blob in the NW corner growing

Did anyone see the way the southwest corner kind of stuck out a leg ... maybe this storm is shakin a leg.

Quoting Golladan:
The GFDL and HWRF are still recurving it before it reaches the Bahamas. The European model still recurves it, but it is now further west(much closer to Cape Hatteras).

i am cynical about the GFDL and HWRF in terms of intensity,of course that is subject to change if Erika can wrap yeah BOyeee.......

saw the leg but the blowup in the NW corner is more in line with the forecasted track.

Quoting thegoldenstrand:


Did anyone see the way the southwest corner kind of stuck out a leg ... maybe this storm is shakin a leg.

Could be getting ready to kick a field goal with one of the islands as the football if it keeps inching closer to field goal range.....

Considering how this storm looks alot different than it did 8 hrs ago, how much faith should one put into models that were initialized at about that time frame?

Hopefully its a Gator kicker and he will miss.

Quoting btwntx08:
the nhc postion at 2 was at 17.0 n and 56.7 and recently hh's found the center a tad south which is at 16.6 n and 58.7 w just u know

that would be right under the new explosion of convection

Quoting cockyhog:
Hopefully its a Gator kicker and he will miss.

you got me.........lol

Quoting cockyhog:
Hopefully its a Gator kicker and he will miss.

Ouch, I sense jealousy of the best NCAA team. It is okay, I'm sure your team will win one day :)

Anyway, as far as "missing" I am with you on that one.

Well just as she went south she could correct her self and end up back north. We will see what the day holds...for now I am getting shut eye. Goodnight all

does any think erika centre trying to reform under the convection ? notice convection seem to be bit further south than it was past few hours wonder it this be like with gustav last year when centre relocated further south

Quoting ackee:
does any think erika centre trying to reform under the convection ? notice convection seem to be bit further south than it was past few hours wonder it this be like with gustav last year when centre relocated further south

it appears to this ameteur it has done exactly that....

Quoting bballerf50:


that would be right under the new explosion of convection

PR landfall seem iminent!

The shear is relaxing in front of Erika, per CIMSS, and it looks like the anticyclone may be realigning with the tropical storm.

well call me crazy but convection seem like its move SE to me not sure where the centre is lol 94L/Ericka has been so hard to predict

that should have been SW sorry lol

Sigh... I'll be looking to see the models shift a lot tomorrow afternoon, until they are actually south of PR. If they do, then I think we're looking at another Dean or Fred here, along with the same landfall point(s).

We'll just have to see what they're going to try to do with it from now on, as I think they've given up trying to push it between the Outer Banks and Bermuda. :(

Jo

Erika is well south of the forecast cone

Yes indeed - perhaps NHC can come up with a way to manage those intermediate graphics, however it does tell a tale. Stalled out storms are so difficult to forecast - take care

Quoting ackee:
that should have been SW sorry lol

no worries.........

Quoting docrod:
Yes indeed - perhaps NHC can come up with a way to manage those intermediate graphics, however it does tell a tale. Stalled out storms are so difficult to forecast - take care

Yes the NHC is definitely gonna earn their paycheck on this one. I had this one pegged as a troublesome name when i saw it on the list, Don't know why........

I am seeing things does anyone look at the water vapor loop there small dot in main convaction wonder if eye trying to form there ?

Quoting flibinite:
Sigh... I'll be looking to see the models shift a lot tomorrow afternoon, until they are actually south of PR. If they do, then I think we're looking at another Dean or Fred here, along with the same landfall point(s).

We'll just have to see what they're going to try to do with it from now on, as I think they've given up trying to push it between the Outer Banks and Bermuda. :(

Jo

Can't remember who said last night it was going into the Caribbean. Thought he was crazy, but he may just turn out to be right.

Now I seems that it won't miss the islands. ST Warnings are likely later today.

Quoting CaribBoy:
Now I seems that it won't miss the islands. ST Warnings are likely later today.

Those should be out any minute now with the latest advisory. That's probably why it's taking longer than usual for them to post it.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 020857
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...DISORGANIZED ERIKA LIKELY TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0
WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.0N 59.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Guys, this flipping thying is moving SouthWest!

I am not wishcasting or whatever, I am in Barbados , just woke up and look at the loop, and got a bit of a shock.

Really!

This is one weird storm.

School is supposed to start for the kids today, will it?

Wind is gusty here, chimes on my porch were rining when I woke up. Cloudy and windy.

Just check this loop!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

...DISORGANIZED ERIKA LIKELY TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

Well, if you saw my posts last night you'd know my reasons for thinking it will be heading SW now, and then staying down there, are a bit more, um... sinister.

But, again, we'll see, and we'll know a lot more in 24 hours, for sure.

Jo

Nuts!

We are getting this Storm.Anyone else here from Barbados yet?

Quoting flibinite:
Well, if you saw my posts last night you'd know my reasons for thinking it will be heading SW now, and then staying down there, are a bit more, um... sinister.

But, again, we'll see, and we'll know a lot more in 24 hours, for sure.

Jo

I was off last night early, so no. But I guess you're right. Here she comes.

Nuts, nuts, nuts.

Thanks gosh, as least she is not CAT 1.

Erika is a fruitcake.

I just woke up. Please tell me that storm is _not_ shooting to the SW. 5AM says down to 50mph.

"Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 02, 2009


an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft has been searching
for the center of the tropical storm over the past few hours. The
circulation has become quite disorganized...but it appears that the
center has reformed to the southwest of the previously estimated
track. However the flight-level winds suggest that there may be
multiple centers...so the advisory position is highly uncertain and
probably represents a mean center...or the location of the
low-level vorticity maximum. The initial motion...270/4...is of
course also highly uncertain. ..."

I am 195 percent certain it is moveing SW!

Quoting quakeman55:

Those should be out any minute now with the latest advisory. That's probably why it's taking longer than usual for them to post it.

Just exactly where is it supposed to turn wnw like the NWS says?

Oh, the loop is clear as day, moving directly towards Barbados from the Northeast.

NEVER seen this before.

Erika is headaches

Now the big question, will the local Ministry move quickly and delay school till tomorrow, or will they sit as usual and wait till the last minute???

Morning everybody, I won't say "good" to my CAR brethren.....

I only got up so I could see the 5 a.m. and I see Erika is as freaky as ever.

U know, I think I'm going to stock up on water and double-check my perishables. Those statistical models have been pretty good about having Erika's number, and every one of the last 3 or 4 runs have brought this to the Bahamas..... :o(

Hope u guys in the Leewards can have a safe day... Erika looks like a gullywasher....

Quoting Weather456:
Erika is headaches

One of those girls who twisted your head into knots when we were young.

Quoting bajelayman2:
Now the big question, will the local Ministry move quickly and delay school till tomorrow, or will they sit as usual and wait till the last minute???

If they're like our guys, wait till the last minute....

I know the NHC say it moveing west but on every loop look at seem be heading SW strange storm