Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Erika likely soon; a weaker Jimena powers towards Baja

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:48 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009

Hurricane Jimena has weakened to a low-end Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, thanks to the collapse of its inner eyewall. The hurricane is undergoing a process common in intense hurricanes called an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where the eye shrinks to a size too small to be stable, resulting in the disintegration of the eyewall, and the formation of a new eyewall from one of the outer spiral bands. Once the new eyewall becomes stable tonight, Jimena has an opportunity to re-strengthen.

The latest set of 12Z model runs show little change in Jimena's track. The hurricane is still expected to make landfall Wednesday along Mexico's Baja Peninsula. If the hurricane makes landfall over the southern portion of Baja, it would likely be at major hurricane strength. However, SSTs cool quickly to 23°C at the middle of the Baja Peninsula, and Jimena would likely weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane if it makes a strike towards the middle of Baja. The computer models are split on what might happen once Jimena makes landfall on Baja, with one camp predicting a northeast turn bringing the storm over Mainland Mexico and eventually into Arizona, and the other camp stalling Jimena out over or just west of Baja. Regardless, the main threat from Jimena will be flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.

Figure 1. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Invest 94L almost Tropical Storm Erika
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating tropical wave 94L, about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So far this afternoon, they have found a broad circulation with top winds of 45 - 50 mph in heavy thunderstorms on the east side. The circulation may be too broad for 94L to be considered a tropical storm, but visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation is getting better defined, and 94L's heavy thunderstorms are moving closer to the center of circulation. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 12Z model runs are more in tune with the idea that 94L will become a tropical storm, with the latest ECMWF run now on board. The storm will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. Since most of 94L's heavy thunderstorms and high winds are on the east side, the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico will probably be spared tropical storm force winds from this system. The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite image taken at 12pm EDT, Tuesday Sep 1, 2009. Five major African tropical waves are apparent. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in this morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

Jeff Masters

Backing Down (Fotoguy77)

Part of the massive Station Fire backs down toward Sunland, Ca in this shot taken around 1am. The fire has burned through over 122,000 acres and killed two.

getting out (Fotoguy77)

This fire Chief from El Dorado County in Northern California is chased out of Aliso Canyon by a wall of flames. This was in the Acton area just off the 14 Freeway.

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2751. SouthFMY 05:25 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Does anyone remember a forecaster stating a few days back that one of the models was predicting that 94l would split...some of the energy going to the Bahamas; the rest going into the Caribbean. I seem to remember something like that, but my mind ain't what it used to be. Member Since: Maggio 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 45

2752. Elena85Vet 05:25 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Erika's convection's got fireworks going off inside. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 619

2753. Patrap 05:26 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting winter123: What do you think is more likely after 5 days? Recurve or landfall? What do the models mostly say post-5 days? As per now, looks pretty amazing. The Image Loop ends at 0345 UTC and is almost 2 Hours Old. GOES-12 is In eclpise and should be back round 03am EDT Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

2754. Patrap 05:27 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Anytime iceman,..Gnight Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

2755. cirrocumulus 05:28 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Patrap, You can go to eumetsat animation and then use the mouse to get a big image of the current movement using multiple frames. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

2758. Patrap 05:31 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting cirrocumulus: Patrap, You can go to eumetsat animation and then use the mouse to get a big image of the current movement using multiple frames. Thanx..Im aware of that Sat ..but Im a tired puppy and Erika aint going no where fast seems the next 8 Hours . I'll be in wunderland till Then,.. G'night Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111626

2759. cirrocumulus 05:32 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I've got the current Eumetsat at 12 o'clock central and it is continuing a west movement 1:15 hours after the goes went to sleep. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

2760. Brillig 05:32 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting SouthFMY: Does anyone remember a forecaster stating a few days back that one of the models was predicting that 94l would split...some of the energy going to the Bahamas; the rest going into the Caribbean. I seem to remember something like that, but my mind ain't what it used to be. Yes, I remember reading that. Member Since: Giugno 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 398

2761. Bordonaro 05:32 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Good morning to everyone :)!! The latest QuikSAT decending pass posted @0442HRS UTC 9-2-09,indicates 60KT (69MPH) winds on 3 wind barbs NE of the center. It will be interesting to see what the HH actually find when they fly through the NE quadrant of TS Erika!! Member Since: Agosto 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

2762. aspectre 05:34 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
2714 JRRP "i do not know what to say" "What the heck?" comes to my mind. Looks like a 90degree turn southwestward from the previous northwestward 17.2N,57.3W-to-17.5N,57.6W heading Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

2763. winter123 05:34 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Patrap: The Image Loop ends at 0345 UTC and is almost 2 Hours Old. GOES-12 is In eclpise and should be back round 03am EDT I asked about its post-5 day possibilities, and used the image to attract attention, but ok. I'm just going to bed since no one wants to answer this. Back in a few days. Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

2764. Elena85Vet 05:34 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting CycloneOz: Surf conditions at Todos Santos today: Heavy surf, and large. Choppy with numerous rips. At Cerritos Beach, the local pro surfers I met refused to get into the water. They were but spectators. If it's dangerous for local pros...they everyone should stay out of the water!!! Thanks for your efforts Oz. I enjoy reading of your adventures. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 619

2766. Brillig 05:38 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
What are you people looking at that are seeing a turn to the south? Member Since: Giugno 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 398

2767. Racefan24 05:39 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Brillig: Yes, I remember reading that. I also remember it being said! Member Since: Luglio 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34

2768. sfla82 05:41 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Looks like S. Fla is in the clear with Erika since she looks to be a fish as well!

2769. cirrocumulus 05:41 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
On Eumetsat imagery, at 12:15 central, Erika continues to move WSW. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

2770. TexasHurricane 05:42 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Brillig: What are you people looking at that are seeing a turn to the south? yeah, i would like to know that as well... Member Since: Luglio 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

2771. SavannahStorm 05:44 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Seems like Erika's got the wobbles, which is to be expected when you have such an unwieldy amount of convection tacked onto a still somewhat ill-defined circulation. Erika may have to shed a few pounds if she wants to get anywhere in life. Member Since: Settembre 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2135

2773. SavannahStorm 05:43 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting sfla82: Looks like S. Fla is in the clear with Erika since she looks to be a fish as well! LOL Member Since: Settembre 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2135

2774. GetReal 05:44 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
CDO forming over a relocated center IMO!!! Member Since: Luglio 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8196

2776. Brillig 05:44 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting TexasHurricane: yeah, i would like to know that as well... Well I do see a reversal in HH barbs west of 59 degrees. Maybe that's it. It doesn't seem to be a normal center, though. Member Since: Giugno 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 398

2777. TexasHurricane 05:44 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting cirrocumulus: On Eumetsat imagery, at 12:15 central, Erika continues to move WSW. got a link for that? Member Since: Luglio 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

2779. Elena85Vet 05:46 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting CycloneOz: Lol... Just found this on Yahoo News (from the AP) Link It was posted earlier. Nice job. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 619

2780. Brillig 05:46 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting CycloneOz: Lol... Just found this on Yahoo News (from the AP) Link Guillermo Arias records stills along the beach as Hurricane Jimena starts hitting Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2009, heheh. Member Since: Giugno 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 398

2781. cirrocumulus 05:48 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Link When you use the link, use the shift key to magnify the image and use nine frames noting the northwest side of convection. In between the small northwest side of convection and the rest of the convection is the center of lowest pressure. On satellite, this center is maintaining a W or WSW movement. The image updates every 15 minutes. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

2782. SavannahStorm 05:49 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
HH is all the way up to 18.500N 57.367W and winds are still out of the ESE... Odd to say the least... Member Since: Settembre 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2135

2784. cirrocumulus 05:50 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Link This link would be the correct one. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

2785. aspectre 05:50 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
2766 Brillig "What are you people looking at that are seeing a turn to the south? 2770 TexasHurricane "yeah, i would like to know that as well..." To the southwest. Take a look at time-lapsed animation on posts 2714 and 2748. Member Since: Agosto 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4846

2786. Elena85Vet 05:51 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting CycloneOz: I'm surprised no one told me. I stumbled on it just now. Ha! Now I know how GMA found out about me. I think atmoaggie referred to it earlier. I know someone did. Pretty cool. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 619

2787. southfla 05:51 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
HH on the way to the center -- it will be north and east of the previous location in the 11pm advisory. Member Since: Maggio 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 204

2788. cirrocumulus 05:52 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Our latest satellite update will soon occur at this link. It will be for 1:30AM Eastern Time. Link Member Since: Settembre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

2791. scottsvb 05:56 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
11pm adv? Southwest? You guys are all talking crap! Go To Bed !! Member Since: Gennaio 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1065

2792. cirrocumulus 05:56 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Member Since: Settembre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

2793. Brillig 05:57 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting aspectre: 2766 Brillig 5:38 "What are you people looking at that are seeing a turn to the south? To the southwest. Take a look at time-lapsed animation on posts 2714 and 2748. Hmmm. I don't really see it from those. Those pictures show what to me looks like breathing in of dry air on the NW side along with a burst of new active convection also near the NW side. The overall storm doesn't seem to be moving much by that picture. Member Since: Giugno 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 398

2794. OracleDeAtlantis 05:57 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I would like someone to show me the trough in the pipeline, that is expected to rescue CONUS. I wonder if this butterfly south of California, could have a role to play in Erika's final curtain call? Member Since: Agosto 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 290

2797. bballerf50 06:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
she is moving west at 10 per 2 AM Member Since: Luglio 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 97

2798. Elena85Vet 06:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
2:00 AM AST Wed Sep 2 Location: 17.0°N 58.7°W Max sustained: 60 mph Moving: W at 10 mph Min pressure: 1008 mb Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 619

2799. cirrocumulus 06:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
OracledeAtlantis: In fact, so far the low pressure of Jimena is the general direction of Erika. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

2800. Elena85Vet 06:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
000 WTNT31 KNHC 020600 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009 200 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009 ...ERIKA LESS ORGANIZED BUT CENTER APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN... ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AND SOME OF THE OTHER LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ERIKA APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER THIS MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIKA COULD PASS NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ARE OCCURRING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. ...SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...17.0N 58.7W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 619

2801. TexasHurricane 06:03 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Elena85Vet: 2:00 AM AST Wed Sep 2 Location: 17.0°N 58.7°W Max sustained: 60 mph Moving: W at 10 mph Min pressure: 1008 mb so it is now west...wasn't it WNW earlier? Member Since: Luglio 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

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