Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Erika likely soon; a weaker Jimena powers towards Baja

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:48 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009

Hurricane Jimena has weakened to a low-end Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, thanks to the collapse of its inner eyewall. The hurricane is undergoing a process common in intense hurricanes called an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where the eye shrinks to a size too small to be stable, resulting in the disintegration of the eyewall, and the formation of a new eyewall from one of the outer spiral bands. Once the new eyewall becomes stable tonight, Jimena has an opportunity to re-strengthen.

The latest set of 12Z model runs show little change in Jimena's track. The hurricane is still expected to make landfall Wednesday along Mexico's Baja Peninsula. If the hurricane makes landfall over the southern portion of Baja, it would likely be at major hurricane strength. However, SSTs cool quickly to 23°C at the middle of the Baja Peninsula, and Jimena would likely weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane if it makes a strike towards the middle of Baja. The computer models are split on what might happen once Jimena makes landfall on Baja, with one camp predicting a northeast turn bringing the storm over Mainland Mexico and eventually into Arizona, and the other camp stalling Jimena out over or just west of Baja. Regardless, the main threat from Jimena will be flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.

Figure 1. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Invest 94L almost Tropical Storm Erika
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating tropical wave 94L, about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So far this afternoon, they have found a broad circulation with top winds of 45 - 50 mph in heavy thunderstorms on the east side. The circulation may be too broad for 94L to be considered a tropical storm, but visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation is getting better defined, and 94L's heavy thunderstorms are moving closer to the center of circulation. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 12Z model runs are more in tune with the idea that 94L will become a tropical storm, with the latest ECMWF run now on board. The storm will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. Since most of 94L's heavy thunderstorms and high winds are on the east side, the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico will probably be spared tropical storm force winds from this system. The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite image taken at 12pm EDT, Tuesday Sep 1, 2009. Five major African tropical waves are apparent. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in this morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

Jeff Masters

Backing Down (Fotoguy77)

Part of the massive Station Fire backs down toward Sunland, Ca in this shot taken around 1am. The fire has burned through over 122,000 acres and killed two.

getting out (Fotoguy77)

This fire Chief from El Dorado County in Northern California is chased out of Aliso Canyon by a wall of flames. This was in the Acton area just off the 14 Freeway.

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2701. cirrocumulus 04:55 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Erika is full of surprises. Now the storms build southward. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

2702. sarahjola 04:55 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
on page 49 i mentioned the sw movement and asked what you all thought and no one answered. am i to understand that most of you see the same thing? i also made the comment that most people said that this storm would stay well north of the islands, and as we can all see it is not well north of anything but Brazil. these models make no sense to me. as i said before i'm no met. but my eye sight is pretty good and i see sw movement and imo the models have been all wrong from jump. i am no wish-caster as i see you all call people when they say where they think something is going. all have been wrong so far including the nhc. so i am asking where do you(anyone) think this is going? this storm is blowing up and not following the rules or the models. imo i don't believe this is a fish storm at all. it is going to hit the islands hard. scary part is where it may be going from there. Member Since: Settembre 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

2703. Orcasystems 04:55 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
AOI AOI AOI AOI Good night... say a small prayer for the people on the Baha Member Since: Ottobre 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

2704. TampaSpin 04:55 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting TexasHurricane: Hi Tampa. Just checning in tonight. What are your thoughts on Erika? Track? I just put out an new Update Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2707. SouthFMY 04:57 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting JLPR: you have a good point =\| I guess we will have for the center fix to be sure xD Erika is a very unpredictable storm I was confused by this too. Maybe some things are not meant to be understood. Like the Rays' pitching lineup.... Member Since: Maggio 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 45

2708. hunkerdown 04:57 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: You could be correct but, i just don't see any shear coming from the direction that would casuse the blob to the south of that possiblity.....i don't know I don't think I would say shear related but more of a balancing organization. A shift in energy from the dominant eastern side to the western side...trying to become more symmetrical. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

2711. Thopfner 05:00 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Orcasystems: AOI AOI AOI AOI Good night... say a small prayer for the people on the Baha Good night and Im new to the blog I am from Seattle and yea I see Erika with a S-SW motion now

2712. Orcasystems 05:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Its going to be an interesting week to say the least. Member Since: Ottobre 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

2713. Patrap 05:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting CycloneOz: GMA...just called for 2nd pre-interview. I wondered why a 2nd pre-interview when they told me earlier tonight...now I know... They've just "soft-booked" me. The fires in California will be the focus tomorrow and they may "squeeze" me in. I love the media. They're so excitable and are able to quickly shift focus. The fires in California should take precedence. But the producer was adamant...the next hurricane I cover, we are to hook up for sure...no soft bookings... Turn off your Tivos! :) I'm still freelance. WU and all of you are my first love anyway! :) Happens a Lot Oz..Months afte K in 05 I was to be interviewed for a CNN AC Cooper Bit but got bumped due to some Politcal JArgon. Nature of the Beast. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111315

2714. JRRP 05:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
i do not know what to say Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4305

2715. Orcasystems 05:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Thopfner: Good night and Im new to the blog I am from Seattle and yea I see Erika with a S-SW motion now ROFLMAO, and I am in Victoria BC .. so welcome to the blog Member Since: Ottobre 1, 2007 Posts: 77 Comments: 26077

2716. JLPR 05:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Where the HH are at? Here they are =P Direction of Travel: ENE (63°) Location: 142 miles (228 km) to the ENE (60°) from Roseau, Dominica. They are now starting to get into the storm Time: 04:54:30Z Coordinates: 16.3333N 59.55W Acft. Static Air Press: 791.6 mb (~ 23.38 inHg) Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,128 meters (~ 6,982 feet) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1011.7 mb (~ 29.88 inHg) D-value: - Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 306° at 5 knots (From the NW at ~ 5.8 mph) Air Temp: 15.5°C (~ 59.9°F) Dew Pt: 0.6°C (~ 33.1°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 6 knots (~ 6.9 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: - SFMR Rain Rate: - () Denotes suspect data Member Since:* Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

2718. Patrap 05:03 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Impressive come to my mind Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111315

2719. Patrap 05:04 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Anyone Have the GOES-12 Eclipse end time? Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111315

2720. 7544 05:06 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting SykKid: Look's like it's going to explode yet again. sure its it fav time dmax just like the last few nights the qustion is can she get any larger in size shes the size i of fla already Member Since: Maggio 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

2721. violet312s 05:06 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I know Erika is the primary interest tonight but please give your thoughts to those in the path of Jimena. Many are so poor they will not leave. It's about to be devastating to these people. I'm sending upwards glances to ask to keep them safe. Member Since: Giugno 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 779

2722. southfla 05:06 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting JRRP: i do not know what to say What is the time on that image ? It looks like an older one to me. Member Since: Maggio 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 204

2723. hunkerdown 05:07 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
if you look at the unenhanced IR, it looks as if the center is just on the south side of the new convection on the NW portion. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir4.html Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

2724. cirrocumulus 05:07 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
So she has moved south at 16.33. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

2725. cirrocumulus 05:08 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Hunkerdown: It also looks like the energy is getting stronger on the southwest side near Barbados. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

2726. PackerFan2 05:10 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting JRRP: i do not know what to say She's probably taking a break before resuming her WNW - NW component as per NHC.

2727. hunkerdown 05:09 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting cirrocumulus: So she has moved south at 16.33. By the unenhanced IR loop I just posted, looks to be more of a slight western drift, if anything, to me. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

2728. will40 05:10 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Patrap: Anyone Have the GOES-12 Eclipse end time? I goolged it Pat but was way above my head lol sorry Member Since: Settembre 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

2730. JRRP 05:11 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting southfla: What is the time on that image ? It looks like an older one to me. honestly i do not know but i think is recent Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4305

2731. JUSTCOASTING 05:12 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting CycloneOz: GMA...just called for 2nd pre-interview. I wondered why a 2nd pre-interview when they told me earlier tonight...now I know... They've just "soft-booked" me. The fires in California will be the focus tomorrow and they may "squeeze" me in. I love the media. They're so excitable and are able to quickly shift focus. The fires in California should take precedence. But the producer was adamant...the next hurricane I cover, we are to hook up for sure...no soft bookings... Turn off your Tivos! :) I'm still freelance. WU and all of you are my first love anyway! :) Keep up the good work anyway your videos are awesome and you are very marketable. Still get the agent. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 666

2732. SCwannabe 05:12 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting hunkerdown: if you look at the unenhanced IR, it looks as if the center is just on the south side of the new convection on the NW portion. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir4.html I agree! That is probably not good! It's probably trying to wrap convection around the COC. I say we have Hurricane tomorrow some time? IMO of course Member Since: Agosto 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 535

2733. PackerFan2 05:13 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting CycloneOz: I asked my "nationalized Mexican" / American escorts about people to the north of Tados Santos today. It's mostly deserted. However, the storm will continue on over the peninsula and onto the mainland...and you are correct...the people living in the line of fire for the next 96 hours of this storm are very impoverished. Though they may know of Jimena, they may not know when, or how bad it will be. These small compact buzz-saws are as bad as the big ones. Todos Santos is where the big surf goes... nice Probly gonna see some monsters, albeit maybe not well formed

2734. JRRP 05:14 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting PackerFan2: She's probably taking a break before resuming her WNW - NW component as per NHC. i thought that too Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4305

2735. Patrap 05:14 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Just a Lil Update as here's my NOLA Local Blog site for those interested. NOLAnuggets Gnight all. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111315

2736. Dee77555 05:14 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Link Hurricane Ike Graphic Archive September 1st 2008 it started

2737. 789 05:15 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting sarahjola: on page 49 i mentioned the sw movement and asked what you all thought and no one answered. am i to understand that most of you see the same thing? i also made the comment that most people said that this storm would stay well north of the islands, and as we can all see it is not well north of anything but Brazil. these models make no sense to me. as i said before i'm no met. but my eye sight is pretty good and i see sw movement and imo the models have been all wrong from jump. i am no wish-caster as i see you all call people when they say where they think something is going. all have been wrong so far including the nhc. so i am asking where do you(anyone) think this is going? this storm is blowing up and not following the rules or the models. imo i don't believe this is a fish storm at all. it is going to hit the islands hard. scary part is where it may be going from there. this storm has its own mind for sure Member Since: Luglio 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 255

2739. SavannahStorm 05:15 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
"I like to call this masterpiece 'The Elephant in the Room'" Member Since: Settembre 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2135

2741. cirrocumulus 05:19 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Holy Smokes! The eumetsat is showing a due west movement at 11:45 central. Member Since: Settembre 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

2742. antonio28 05:20 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I been watching the Sat and reading the comments on this blog over the last 5 hours, and based these are my observation UUL over DR has weakeend at the same time that the AB ridge digs more westward that the reason of the slow movement if that ridge continue to expand that will cause Erika to move more westward entering into the NE caribbean or just missing the Area. If Erika strat to move soon will be west if stays at this lower pace NHC track seems to be on the money. This is about timming, just my opinion. Member Since: Luglio 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799

2743. SCwannabe 05:20 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting SavannahStorm: "I like to call this masterpiece 'The Elephant in the Room'" This has truly been amazing! Just watching the Genesis of this storm is incredible. Member Since: Agosto 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 535

2744. TexasHurricane 05:20 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting SavannahStorm: "I like to call this masterpiece 'The Elephant in the Room'" Weird, by this picture - the white around it almost looks like it would be her protective layer....like, no shear or dry air is going to get in here..... Member Since: Luglio 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

2745. hunkerdown 05:20 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting cirrocumulus: Holy Smokes! The eumetsat is showing a due west movement at 11:45 central. which is what I saw on the unenhanced IR. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

2746. Patrap 05:22 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Then Next Model Runs to come will be the 06 Zulu ones..you can find them here when they come out ,round 3-4am CDT. ATCF images (Hurricane Track Models) Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111315

2747. TampaSpin 05:23 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Nite everyone! Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2748. winter123 05:23 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
What do you think is more likely after 5 days? Recurve or landfall? What do the models mostly say post-5 days? As per now, looks pretty amazing. Member Since: Luglio 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1700

2750. hunkerdown 05:24 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: Nite everyone! I hear ya, I'm out... Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

2751. SouthFMY 05:25 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Does anyone remember a forecaster stating a few days back that one of the models was predicting that 94l would split...some of the energy going to the Bahamas; the rest going into the Caribbean. I seem to remember something like that, but my mind ain't what it used to be. Member Since: Maggio 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 45

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