Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Erika likely soon; a weaker Jimena powers towards Baja

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:48 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009

Hurricane Jimena has weakened to a low-end Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, thanks to the collapse of its inner eyewall. The hurricane is undergoing a process common in intense hurricanes called an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where the eye shrinks to a size too small to be stable, resulting in the disintegration of the eyewall, and the formation of a new eyewall from one of the outer spiral bands. Once the new eyewall becomes stable tonight, Jimena has an opportunity to re-strengthen.

The latest set of 12Z model runs show little change in Jimena's track. The hurricane is still expected to make landfall Wednesday along Mexico's Baja Peninsula. If the hurricane makes landfall over the southern portion of Baja, it would likely be at major hurricane strength. However, SSTs cool quickly to 23°C at the middle of the Baja Peninsula, and Jimena would likely weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane if it makes a strike towards the middle of Baja. The computer models are split on what might happen once Jimena makes landfall on Baja, with one camp predicting a northeast turn bringing the storm over Mainland Mexico and eventually into Arizona, and the other camp stalling Jimena out over or just west of Baja. Regardless, the main threat from Jimena will be flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.

Figure 1. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Invest 94L almost Tropical Storm Erika
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating tropical wave 94L, about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So far this afternoon, they have found a broad circulation with top winds of 45 - 50 mph in heavy thunderstorms on the east side. The circulation may be too broad for 94L to be considered a tropical storm, but visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation is getting better defined, and 94L's heavy thunderstorms are moving closer to the center of circulation. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 12Z model runs are more in tune with the idea that 94L will become a tropical storm, with the latest ECMWF run now on board. The storm will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. Since most of 94L's heavy thunderstorms and high winds are on the east side, the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico will probably be spared tropical storm force winds from this system. The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite image taken at 12pm EDT, Tuesday Sep 1, 2009. Five major African tropical waves are apparent. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in this morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

Jeff Masters

Backing Down (Fotoguy77)

Part of the massive Station Fire backs down toward Sunland, Ca in this shot taken around 1am. The fire has burned through over 122,000 acres and killed two.

getting out (Fotoguy77)

This fire Chief from El Dorado County in Northern California is chased out of Aliso Canyon by a wall of flames. This was in the Acton area just off the 14 Freeway.

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2401. Patrap 03:33 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting iceman55: Bob Breck lolol he a joke Bob Breck,Hmmm,let see..30 years as a Broadcast Met,and a Degree to boot and a Former Marine..well your just gonna have to suck on it ice,ice baby .. Bob has them beat by Miles. LOL Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

2402. midgulfmom 03:33 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting StormW: Right now my best estimate would have to be north of NC...but again, it's subnect to change that far out in time. Thank you kind sir. Member Since: Luglio 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

2403. atmoaggie 03:33 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: I think the Models need about 2 or 3 more runs to get things worked out now since we have a LLC now. Tomorrow at this time will make a big difference in confidence....LOL at least a little..LOL That's where I am. The models are best considered junk right now. Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2405. nolacane2009 03:33 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting midgulfmom: Bob Breck Fox news N.O. said something similiar last night and acted like GOM was out the the question. Hope he's right. Thats why I hate Bob Breck Member Since: Agosto 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 248

2406. sarahjola 03:34 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
i'm no met. but it looks to me that this storm is going to hit the islands and everyone said that it would go well north of the islands. it also looks as though the wild child has taken a small dive to the south west. just my opinion. this is the site that i think i saw a southerly dive on. its a small dive but pay attention and tell me what you think. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8irnch/g8irnchcjava.html i know its long but i have no idea how to link. i was on the nch sat. page and it must have been in the middle of an update and it took me to this site. check it out and see what y'all think. thanks in advance Member Since: Settembre 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

2407. truecajun 03:34 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Packerfan, I could tell that you were kidding. It's obvious that most of us on here are pro Hurricane Hunters - whether they are economical or not. Member Since: Agosto 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

2408. jurakantaino 03:34 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Patrap: Dont forget to Smile and Plug the wunderground Oz. Be cool and take a Lil time to rest up. Very interesting story , which i could do the same love to be at the center of the storm. Member Since: Luglio 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

2409. PackerFan2 03:34 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting atmoaggie: That's where I am. The models are best considered junk right now. For the 42nd time tonight ;)

2410. sarahjola 03:35 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting nolacane2009: Thats why I hate Bob Breck lol! Member Since: Settembre 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1291

2411. Racefan24 03:35 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Nolehead: why did Steve lyons downplay this storm like it's nothing?? wonder who really is running TWC...NBC or the GOV'T...lol...really makes you wonder sometimes... That is a scarey thought that NBC is running the TWC. Member Since: Luglio 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 34

2412. LightningCharmer 03:35 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting CycloneOz: Thanks for the onsite update. Rest Well. Member Since: Settembre 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1111

2414. truecajun 03:35 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
thanks oz. hope to see you on GM America. Member Since: Agosto 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

2415. Patrap 03:35 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Is GOES-12 in Blackout..or is the SSD site still slow? Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

2416. PackerFan2 03:35 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting truecajun: Packerfan, I could tell that you were kidding. It's obvious that most of us on here are pro Hurricane Hunters - whether they are economical or not. Yeah. Heck, one of my dream jobs would be to work on those planes. Driving it home inside a cane would be epic.

2419. pcolasky 03:36 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Get back safe! You're pics were great! I hope that you won't be reporting locally anytime soon!

2420. Patrap 03:36 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting iceman55: Patrap .iknow .im from n.o Wow...maybe you can by me Lunch then,..Im Uptown and "Vary" Hungry usually round 11am. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

2421. midgulfmom 03:37 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting nolacane2009: Thats why I hate Bob Breck Because of his attitude? Member Since: Luglio 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

2422. nolacane2009 03:37 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Patrap: Wow...maybe you can by me Lunch then,..Im Uptown and "Vary" Hungry usually round 11am. I want lunch too I am on the Westbank Member Since: Agosto 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 248

2424. watchingnva 03:38 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
before calling it a night....i wanted to see if anyone else sees the next large burst of convection on the nw side of erika...its only just started to blossom the last 2 frames or so....but looks as if shes trying to get more symmetrical and build on the west/nw side... does anyone else see this or am i just getting too tired...figured id throw it out there... Member Since: Settembre 7, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310

2425. msinformed 03:38 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Poor ole Shingleton ... still at it, eh? Wouldn't put too much stock in what his rug wearing head says .. lol Member Since: Settembre 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 26

2426. watchingnva 03:38 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Patrap: Is GOES-12 in Blackout..or is the SSD site still slow? the floaters are either stuck or running 1-1 1/2 hours behind for some reason...who knows... Member Since: Settembre 7, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310

2428. presslord 03:38 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
...but...I'm so confused... Didn't the great stormno assure us that 94L wouldn't amount to anything? Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

2429. stormsurge39 03:40 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting StormW: It is early to tell, but it would appear to be a more pronounced motion, albeit the ridging does not appear to be as strong as the ridges we are seeing at the current moment. Gonna have to ee furthr runs on the steering forecast pattern, combined with various satellite loop imagery. Storm, just watched the guy from hurricane city and he said a low is suppossed to develope off the SCarolina coast in 4 to 5 days and cause a weakness in the high and Erika will follow it N. He also said this is not etched in stone. What are your thoughts?

2430. PackerFan2 03:38 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting sarahjola: i'm no met. but it looks to me that this storm is going to hit the islands hold your horses you're new to this, aren't you?

2431. atmoaggie 03:40 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Racefan24: That is a scarey thought that NBC is running the TWC. Worse, GE runs NBC. Quoting PackerFan2: For the 42nd time tonight ;) Yeah, well, given how fast the pages turn here...you're right though. Maybe I should start talking about tunnels. Then I really could be monomaniaman. Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2432. nolacane2009 03:39 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting iceman55: bob saild Hurricane Katrina not come here That's why I do not like him. IMO Member Since: Agosto 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 248

2433. PackerFan2 03:39 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting presslord: ...but...I'm so confused... Didn't the great stormno assure us that 94L wouldn't amount to anything? no. he just ran out of silverware (putting forks in it)

2434. Patrap 03:39 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting nolacane2009: I want lunch too I am on the Westbank Okay,..lets do this..Im barbecuing here if ya Bring the Chicken and whatever come NFL Opening Day. I'll Post a entry in my Blog and were gonna Have a wu-Who Dat Party. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

2435. atmoaggie 03:39 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Patrap: Wow...maybe you can by me Lunch then,..Im Uptown and "Vary" Hungry usually round 11am. Yeah, I still owe you one. Not going to forget it, just not on the southshore often. Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2436. midgulfmom 03:39 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting iceman55: ok Patrap pat man man lol Ok..LOL..I see ya'll are playing nice now. Good. Member Since: Luglio 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

2438. PackerFan2 03:40 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting atmoaggie: Maybe I should start talking about tunnels. Then I really could be monomaniaman. To say you lost me there would be an understatement. lol

2439. Patrap 03:40 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting PackerFan2: no. he just ran out of silverware (putting forks in it) stormno also had his Jersey retired from the wu-server. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

2441. AllBoardedUp 03:41 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting atmoaggie: Worse, GE runs NBC. Yeah, well, given how fast the pages turn here...you're right though. Maybe I should start talking about tunnels. Then I really could be monomaniaman. Quoting atmoaggie: Worse, GE runs NBC. Yeah, well, given how fast the pages turn here...you're right though. Maybe I should start talking about tunnels. Then I really could be monomaniaman. Give it some time, the government will be running GE. Member Since: Luglio 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 585

2442. atmoaggie 03:41 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting presslord: ...but...I'm so confused... Didn't the great stormno assure us that 94L wouldn't amount to anything? And Claudette was an "EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION" Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2443. Patrap 03:41 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting atmoaggie: Yeah, I still owe you one. Not going to forget it, just not on the southshore often. We will get there one day atmo..timing is everything me friend. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

2444. presslord 03:41 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Patrap: stormno also has had his Jersey retired from the wu-server. somebody musta cleaned house around here... Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

2445. nolacane2009 03:41 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Patrap: Okay,..lets do this..Im barbecuing here if ya Bring the Chicken and whatever come NFL Opening Day. I'll Post a entry in my Blog and were gonna Have a wu-Who Dat Party. I can do that with no problem. I love BBQ Chicken and New Orleans Saints football Member Since: Agosto 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 248

2446. BenBIogger 03:42 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Good Evening Member Since: Marzo 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419

2447. truecajun 03:42 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting msinformed: Poor ole Shingleton ... still at it, eh? Wouldn't put too much stock in what his rug wearing head says .. lol my husband says he wears a wig. i didn't beleive him. i guess you've just confirmed that. where are you from? Member Since: Agosto 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

2448. gordydunnot 03:42 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
How do you really feel pat. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

2449. Patrap 03:43 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting presslord: somebody musta cleaned house around here... Seems to be a work in progress,.. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

2451. jazzygal 03:43 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Patrap: In MArch 2003 My Father was Being treated at Ochsner before he Passed March 21,the day the war started..and coming out the elevator one Aft came Nash Roberts and His Wife. I spent about a Good 20 Minutes with Him drinking coffee and it was a Moment I'll never forget. A true Met Legend. I felt Like Hank Hill hanging with Tom Landry. Sorry about your Dad. That would be a great 20 min. I remember being at a Saints game in Tulane Stadium when they announce a Hurricane Warning for Nola. We had to leave to go hear what Nash had to say. We only trusted him. Then came Bob Breck. He is OK. Watching the tropics closely. I figure a few more weeks and Nola should be OK but you never know. I need 3 days notice to get there so I am keeping my eyes on the tropics the next few weeks. Member Since: Giugno 2, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 155

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