Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


ive been here for alot of storms, there should be no problem leaving the area if it happens to hit.

I thought the area was a hassle to leave on any given Friday. LOL.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

and it will go more and more south I say it will be a caribbean storm

this is the WU blog, not the tooth fairy blog

"LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY."

whats NM mean?

NM-Nautical Miles

Quoting Patrap:


No one evacs better than NOLA..period.
Gustav was a Prime example of a Model Evac..,

even for K ..and I was here..one could Have drove out up until the Eyewall Hit.

1 Million safely Evacuated in 30 Hours for Gustav,never has that been accomplished so fast and orderly.
Re-entry was problamatic,but theres always room for Improvement.
Once again,..study yer facts before going there.

Rita in Texas in 05 was yer Nightmare scenario,..and Opal Almost caught many in 95 on I-10.

Yeah I was talking road capacity, you are correct, it was smooth.
Compared to some magical place where one could effctively go down the highway in any direction to evac...
Addendum: Pat, you think that if we don't have to evac for ten years it would still go so well? I think the memory is shorter than we want to admit sometimes.

Historically, storms in this area wind up in the GOM 25% of the time, hit the east coast 25% of the time, and recurve into the north Atlantic 50% of the time. I think I give this storm similar odds, based on the dissenting model tracks.

The HWRF shows a slight, just a slight westerly component at the end of its forecast track.

planne takes off in 1 hour they might find 65mph by 2 am imo

the track went south 1 degree will this be trend all depends on that high

still keeping it a ts for the whole 5 days

Quoting truecajun:


it works for me??

I am still having problems with the NHC SAT links & loops. Beyond what I first stated. The floater now brings up all overlays but no image. Don't know if it is me or them.

Pat- I am reading through all the post and came to the one on Nash Roberts. That brings back a lot of memories. Could always trust him. Thanks for that. Good evening all. I am trying to catch up, a few hundred post behind.

omw! time for bed to tired. thanks!

Quoting JamesSA:
They are calling it 60 mph now...

looks like it is just sitting there,......waiting for the right moment.:):):)just foolin about,,,does look impressive though.

Erika looks like an Anular Tropical Storm hehe

Quoting CandiBarr:
"LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY."

whats NM mean?

Nautical Miles

in the last rainbow frame of Jimena, you see healthy band making landfall along the western shore of the peninsula. it fits perfectly on the coastline.

Link

StormW do you think that weakness will close as there appears to be a high coming off the East Coast?

Quoting reedzone:
The new track should remind others from the GOM coastline to Maine in the northeast to watch Erika. This is not a wishcast guys, Erika MAY pose a threat by Labor Day Weekend. Also with the way things are going, it wouldn't surprise me if Erika becomes a Minimal Hurricane by 5 a.m. tomorrow, long shot, but possible.

Quoting CandiBarr:
"LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY."

whats NM mean?

nautical miles

Quoting 7544:
planne takes off in 1 hour they might find 65mph by 2 am imo

the track went south 1 degree will this be trend all depends on that high

still keeping it a ts for the whole 5 days

another plane? my taxpayer dollars!

The Only current Mandatory evacs are in S Cali at Present. And those are fire caused in Sept.
Really feel for them folks as relief wont be coming from Jimena looks Like..all the Progs sweep the remnant Se of them sadly

http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_2004_charts/at200409.gif

Quoting Relix:


Dude it's at 17.5 how the heck would it be a caribbean storm =P

from forcast discussion
AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT VERY STRONG
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW

Quoting atmoaggie:

If you are flying, I would be worried about the possibility of getting out if Erika is a threat to the area. Other than that, too early to say much else.
Even then, that might be a consideration only if you are flying out of Norfolk or Newport News. Richmond would be easier, I would imagine.
One more thing. If it looks like a threat and you have to drive at least as far as Richmond, leave early.

I'll be in the Williamsburg, Newport News area, and I'll be driving. At least I can't get grounded that way. I'll keep those highway routes in mind

why did Steve lyons downplay this storm like it's nothing?? wonder who really is running TWC...NBC or the GOV'T...lol...really makes you wonder sometimes...

Quoting jazzygal:
Pat- I am reading through all the post and came to the one on Nash Roberts. That brings back a lot of memories. Could always trust him. Thanks for that. Good evening all. I am trying to catch up, a few hundred post behind.

OMGOSH...All I can remember since Hurricane Camille was my Daddy talking about how accurate Nash Roberts could track a storm...he was the bomb from what I remember...God rest his soul and my dad's

Quoting TampaSpin:
StormW do you think that weakness will close as there appears to be a high coming off the East Coast?

I'm not StormW but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night

Well... how healthy do you think that front is? Will it erode in time for Erika to get hooked on the underneath of the high? Well, she being so late to the party definetly helps that scenario...

Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
what dept. if you don't mind me asking...mys son is jsut starting with Biloxi

I work for the state police (so to speak, but not the troopers, thank God) but our area covers all of the three coastal counties so I'm sure I'll bump into your son at some point. Hopefully he won't be pulling me over for speeding!

Thank you Storm for your reasoned analysis. Sorry for my ignorance but if the "ridge" builds back in, where are we talking about and what area would it protect if any?

Quoting PackerFan2:


another plane? my taxpayer dollars!

whats a few thousand dollars

so Erika has moves
.3N and .3W
:| that's not much movement

Quoting Nolehead:
why did Steve lyons downplay this storm like it's nothing?? wonder who really is running TWC...NBC or the GOV'T...lol...really makes you wonder sometimes...

The Builderberg Group

Quoting amd:


in a rapidly organizing cyclone, the exact center can change on the dime, so it is sometimes tricky to get an exact handle on the storm. In my unprofessional opinion, the expanding convection is making the system look like it is moving to the wsw, but the center is probably moving slowly just north of due west.

Note: There is a chance that the center may relocate at a different position than it is currently now due to the rapid organization of the convection. Recon will confirm the exact location of the center at the middle of the night.

thank you for explaining that...i was wondering if my eyes were playing tricks on me :)

Quoting jazzygal:
Pat- I am reading through all the post and came to the one on Nash Roberts. That brings back a lot of memories. Could always trust him. Thanks for that. Good evening all. I am trying to catch up, a few hundred post behind.

In MArch 2003 My Father was Being treated at Ochsner before he Passed March 21,the day the war started..and coming out the elevator one Aft came Nash Roberts and His Wife.
I spent about a Good 20 Minutes with Him drinking coffee and it was a Moment I'll never forget.
A true Met Legend. I felt Like Hank Hill hanging with Tom Landry.

Quoting PackerFan2:


another plane? my taxpayer dollars!

you are joking completely right?

if not, look elsewhere for wasteful spending (not hard to find) ;)

i see erika has formed and is looking much better....still lopsided and needs to get that convection directly over the llc....but better none the less...

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

from forcast discussion
AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT VERY STRONG
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW

yeah that kind of says it all:
"GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW"

Quoting JLPR:
so Erika has moves
.3N and .3W
:| that's not much movement

I like provoking and stirring :D

Quoting hunkerdown:
this is the WU blog, not the tooth fairy blog

lol lol lol

Quoting MrsOsa:


I'll be in the Williamsburg, Newport News area, and I'll be driving. At least I can't get grounded that way. I'll keep those highway routes in mind

From there, that would be easy. About the only route is that I-64 I mentioned.
If you miss out on the George Washington memorial battlefield and Yorktown (think surrender of Cornwallis) that would be shame since you are going to be less than 10 miles away.

Chief Met here in Mobile, Al. says that with growing confidence this is not going to be a GOM storm. Looks more like an East Coast event! I really hope nobody gets this, because its exciting out in the water, but sucks on land!!

i think with this post, i will call it a night....keep an eye on her guys...will catch back up in the morning...

night.

chris.

Quoting MrsOsa:


I work for the state police (so to speak, but not the troopers, thank God) but our area covers all of the three coastal counties so I'm sure I'll bump into your son at some point. Hopefully he won't be pulling me over for speeding!

Oh ok...I hope he doesn't either...just ask whoever pulls you over if his mom is a mail lady...if so tell him I said to let you go...stay safe out there and God Bless

Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
OMGOSH...All I can remember since Hurricane Camille was my Daddy talking about how accurate Nash Roberts could track a storm...he was the bomb from what I remember...God rest his soul and my dad's

Hey... Nash is still 'live 'n kickin'! (92 years old, I think). I thought he was about 92 when I first saw him after moving to New Orleans in 1994. He is one of the GREATS! He would pour over countless buoy readings and draw everything on a board with a marker. No computer animations for him! That's why I love storms like Erika. The models depart, and the boys and girls at the NHC have to stick their necks out! Let's see how they do! Lots to be said for the old-fashioned techniques.

Quoting Dakster:


My guns are for work.

Best defense against looters is a good neighborhood. We all lookout for each other and help each other out in times of crisis. I do live in the "gunshine State".

FWIW, I have young kids too - so when the time comes a little scaring can't hurt. Especially when Daddy can threaten to take "Suitor Johhny" to the big house if he doesn't behave.

My favorite quote when my daughter was a teenager was from the movie "Clueless". "I have a .45 and a shovel. I don't think anyone will miss you." (it went something like that)

Quoting watchingnva:


you are joking completely right?

if not, look elsewhere for wasteful spending (not hard to find) ;)

i see erika has formed and is looking much better....still lopsided and needs to get that convection directly over the llc....but better none the less...

that airplane does not run on electric charge, solar or wind!

it runs on money lol

yeah i'm kidding... i'm all for science when it's done feasibly and with austerity

seriously tho, those planes eat a lot of gas... do you have any idea how much it costs?

i had a friend who has a jet plane with a rolls royce 16 cylinder single turbine engine. he burns thru $500 of gas in about an hour, maybe a little more. granted, he does 400 knots.

2341. stormsurge39 3:16 AM GMT on September 02, 2009
Chief Met here in Mobile, Al. says that with growing confidence this is not going to be a GOM storm. Looks more like an East Coast event! I really hope nobody gets this, because its exciting out in the water, but sucks on land!!

LMAO!!! please tell me your not talking about little Alan Seals?? that guy couldn't predict the weather if it slapped him in the face...good grief don't rely on his forcast...

I don't know how anyone can make any emphatic declarations at this point as to the future of this system when even the National Hurricane Center has low confidence in the forecasts and the computer models have such wide divergence in solutions. I'm really split tonight as it pertains to the future of Erika.

Something strange with the models now tho...

The BAMD--is the Southern most
while
The BAMS--is the Northern most
while
The BAMM--is in between the two..

This is just the reverse the way in should be if my thinking is correct...