Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Erika likely soon; a weaker Jimena powers towards Baja

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:48 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009

Hurricane Jimena has weakened to a low-end Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, thanks to the collapse of its inner eyewall. The hurricane is undergoing a process common in intense hurricanes called an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where the eye shrinks to a size too small to be stable, resulting in the disintegration of the eyewall, and the formation of a new eyewall from one of the outer spiral bands. Once the new eyewall becomes stable tonight, Jimena has an opportunity to re-strengthen.

The latest set of 12Z model runs show little change in Jimena's track. The hurricane is still expected to make landfall Wednesday along Mexico's Baja Peninsula. If the hurricane makes landfall over the southern portion of Baja, it would likely be at major hurricane strength. However, SSTs cool quickly to 23°C at the middle of the Baja Peninsula, and Jimena would likely weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane if it makes a strike towards the middle of Baja. The computer models are split on what might happen once Jimena makes landfall on Baja, with one camp predicting a northeast turn bringing the storm over Mainland Mexico and eventually into Arizona, and the other camp stalling Jimena out over or just west of Baja. Regardless, the main threat from Jimena will be flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.

Figure 1. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Invest 94L almost Tropical Storm Erika
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating tropical wave 94L, about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So far this afternoon, they have found a broad circulation with top winds of 45 - 50 mph in heavy thunderstorms on the east side. The circulation may be too broad for 94L to be considered a tropical storm, but visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation is getting better defined, and 94L's heavy thunderstorms are moving closer to the center of circulation. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 12Z model runs are more in tune with the idea that 94L will become a tropical storm, with the latest ECMWF run now on board. The storm will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. Since most of 94L's heavy thunderstorms and high winds are on the east side, the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico will probably be spared tropical storm force winds from this system. The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite image taken at 12pm EDT, Tuesday Sep 1, 2009. Five major African tropical waves are apparent. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in this morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

Jeff Masters

Backing Down (Fotoguy77)

Part of the massive Station Fire backs down toward Sunland, Ca in this shot taken around 1am. The fire has burned through over 122,000 acres and killed two.

getting out (Fotoguy77)

This fire Chief from El Dorado County in Northern California is chased out of Aliso Canyon by a wall of flames. This was in the Acton area just off the 14 Freeway.

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2251. midgulfmom 02:57 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting midgulfmom: Hi, sorry for response delay. Knock at door. It is yucky! Many high schoolers and grade schoolers out. So much for the vaccine.. I have to keep checkin on my son and Ericka. They both have me worried. Oops! in reference to TrueCajun thought the Quote posted. Member Since: Luglio 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

2252. amd 02:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting TriniGirl26: is it me or does Erika look like its going WSW? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html in a rapidly organizing cyclone, the exact center can change on the dime, so it is sometimes tricky to get an exact handle on the storm. In my unprofessional opinion, the expanding convection is making the system look like it is moving to the wsw, but the center is probably moving slowly just north of due west. Note: There is a chance that the center may relocate at a different position than it is currently now due to the rapid organization of the convection. Recon will confirm the exact location of the center at the middle of the night. Member Since: Agosto 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024

2253. VAbeachhurricanes 02:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting MrsOsa: Hi all, just a quick intro. I've been a lurker for a while and finally want to get in on the action. My husband and I are both cops on the MS gulf coast so we don't have the option of evacuating. We get to stay behind and try and help the ones who didn't (or couldn't) listen to the warnings. You can see why I check this page religiously during hurricane season. So far the last four years since Katrina have been lucky for us. Gustav brushed us but no problems. Our offices (and many others) are still in trailers = no good for strong thunderstorms let alone hurricanes! I'm praying Erika stays out of the GOM. But even then, I'll be on the VA coast for labor day weekend. Chancing an EC hit/brush, what are the chances I'll get stuck there? Erika's been so slow moving I'm not clear on her timeframe ive been here for alot of storms, there should be no problem leaving the area if it happens to hit. Member Since: Settembre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4802

2254. Tazmanian 02:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
guys can we stop posting the new update from ERIKA we dont need to fill up dr m blog with ERIKA updates from the nhc thank you Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2255. Relix 02:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Puts Crow back in fridge I'll reheat it tomorrow if needed =P Member Since:* Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

2256. PackerFan2 02:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
looks like the carib only minimal impact, hope those ridge weaknesses hold

2257. BahaHurican 02:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting zoomiami: Hi Baha: You keep it away from you, and it will stay away from me! When is the next update? I've gotten lost as to the times. They use to put on the bottom the next update time. Hey zoo.... LOL I just don't want to spend my weekend potentially w/out AC..... Next update is out, and I'm sure it's been posted a dozen times.... lol. I've had a long day, and am so beat I think I'm dozing off between posts.... lol Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17672

2258. Patrap 02:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting MrsOsa: Hi all, just a quick intro. I've been a lurker for a while and finally want to get in on the action. My husband and I are both cops on the MS gulf coast so we don't have the option of evacuating. We get to stay behind and try and help the ones who didn't (or couldn't) listen to the warnings. You can see why I check this page religiously during hurricane season. So far the last four years since Katrina have been lucky for us. Gustav brushed us but no problems. Our offices (and many others) are still in trailers = no good for strong thunderstorms let alone hurricanes! I'm praying Erika stays out of the GOM. But even then, I'll be on the VA coast for labor day weekend. Chancing an EC hit/brush, what are the chances I'll get stuck there? Erika's been so slow moving I'm not clear on her timeframe Hancock and Harrison County,...I know they have outstanding Emg Mgrs in Both ,as well as Jackson County cuz Ive met some of them. Why dont you consult with your Local Emg Mgrs? ,they have ALL the Tools and Info a County would Need. Id check with them as well. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111599

2259. hunkerdown 02:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting jipmg: they are saying its moving WNW at 8MPH now?? no, thats in anticipation: "ERIKA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. " Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

2260. PackerFan2 02:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Relix: *Puts Crow back in fridge I'll reheat it tomorrow if needed =P crow, or owl? i thought birds wouldn't eat other birds :/

2261. lordhuracan01 02:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
..ERIKA MOVING VERY SLOWLY... 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 1 Location: 17.5�N 57.6�W Max sustained: 60 MH Moving: WNW at 8 mph Min pressure: 1004 mb Member Since: Agosto 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 225

2262. futurenavymet 02:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: Not sure this will be Florida! Way to early to say just yet. All depends if that trough lifts out and a high builds in...tough call yet. im still sticking to florida because what i see

2263. Stoopid1 02:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Also of note, there is a fairly potent eddy current loop NE of Puerto Rico. Though Erika should miss it, it could still provide some fuel for her on the current forecast track. Just a thought. Good night y'all. Member Since: Agosto 6, 2007 Posts: 21 Comments: 2350

2264. HurricaneRoman 02:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
omg! theyre taking forever to post the new track Member Since: Febbraio 25, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 958

2265. pcolasky 02:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting yamil20: THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE HIGH-CLOUD MOTION THAT THE SHEAR HAS LESSENED A LITTLE BIT Not good at all! But, the stronger it gets it might go more north! that would be good

2266. BDADUDE 02:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
IT is taz!! Member Since: Settembre 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602

2267. stormsurge39 03:00 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting TampaSpin: Not sure this will be Florida! Way to early to say just yet. All depends if that trough lifts out and a high builds in...tough call yet. When will the call not be too tough to call?

2268. hunkerdown 03:00 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Relix: Puts Crow back in fridge I'll reheat it tomorrow if needed =P gotta be careful with that crow, dont want to get trichinosis. Member Since:* Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

2269. midgulfmom 03:00 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Since Erika is moving very slowly now is she poised for a new directional move? Always heard slowing usually means possible turn. Member Since: Luglio 9, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 1002

2270. Chicklit 03:00 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
pressure still at 1004. no real strong coc. that's good. maybe she's going to be a rainmaker mostly, but still flooding an issue. night all.Link Member Since: Luglio 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254

2271. VAbeachhurricanes 03:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
they havent updated any graphics yet... sigh this is annoying. Member Since: Settembre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4802

2272. Tazmanian 03:00 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
. Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111355

2273. JamesSA 03:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
They are calling it 60 mph now... Member Since: Agosto 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579

2274. Relix 03:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting hunkerdown: gotta be careful with that crow, dont want to get trichinosis. Hopefully... nah. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

2275. wunderkidcayman 03:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
maybe erika will become a caribbean storm Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5450

2276. tkeith 03:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Tazmanian: i am now a mod for this blog i will tell you what you can and can not do lol poor Amy...LOL! Member Since: novembre 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839

2277. atmoaggie 03:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting MrsOsa: Hi all, just a quick intro. I've been a lurker for a while and finally want to get in on the action. My husband and I are both cops on the MS gulf coast so we don't have the option of evacuating. We get to stay behind and try and help the ones who didn't (or couldn't) listen to the warnings. You can see why I check this page religiously during hurricane season. So far the last four years since Katrina have been lucky for us. Gustav brushed us but no problems. Our offices (and many others) are still in trailers = no good for strong thunderstorms let alone hurricanes! I'm praying Erika stays out of the GOM. But even then, I'll be on the VA coast for labor day weekend. Chancing an EC hit/brush, what are the chances I'll get stuck there? Erika's been so slow moving I'm not clear on her timeframe If you are flying, I would be worried about the possibility of getting out if Erika is a threat to the area. Other than that, too early to say much else. Even then, that might be a consideration only if you are flying out of Norfolk or Newport News. Richmond would be easier, I would imagine. One more thing. If it looks like a threat and you have to drive at least as far as Richmond, leave early. Never did understand how 2 M+ folks could live at the end of one single 2-lane limited access highway. No other efficient way to leave the whole tidewater area, but to get on I-64. (unless something major changed in the last 4 years) That place has a worse evacuation issue than NOLA, they just don't know it yet. Or have forgotten since Isabel. Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2278. zoomiami 03:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Agree about the AC Baha, night - sure we'll catch up tomorrow. Interesting note, saw a lot of public works out today marking piles to be picked up. Seems like they are being a little cautious, doing some proactive work. Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4065

2279. reedzone 03:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
New track shifted south.. Member Since: Luglio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

2280. VAbeachhurricanes 03:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
new wind field out, shows it getting better organized Member Since: Settembre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4802

2281. truecajun 03:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting midgulfmom: Oops! in reference to TrueCajun thought the Quote posted. i'm having trouble trying to quote too. i think the blog is moving too fast. Member Since: Agosto 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

2282. MelbourneTom 03:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Has anyone else noticed that with the new NHC FLASH availability that the overlays for the winds and SSTs do not seem to work anymore? Member Since: Giugno 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 600

2283. hunkerdown 03:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting HurricaneRoman: omg! theyre taking forever to post the new track you can look at the discussion to determine the track, it will be basically the same but just a little slower. Member Since: Agosto 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2514

2284. marinetech47 03:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Stoopid1: Also of note, there is a fairly potent eddy current loop NE of Puerto Rico. Though Erika should miss it, it could still provide some fuel for her on the current forecast track. Just a thought. Good night y'all. Can you post a link to the eddys. Someone here, it's been a while, posted a link to the loop currents in GOM but I can't find it. Possibly the same ??

2285. Relix 03:03 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
They seem to be more confident in the system going north of the antilles. I am hitting bed WU, good night everyone! Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

2286. wunderkidcayman 03:04 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting reedzone: New track shifted south.. and it will go more and more south I say it will be a caribbean storm Member Since: Giugno 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 5450

2287. NOVArules 03:04 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Yep they definatley shifted it south. Member Since: Agosto 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 178

2288. atmoaggie 03:04 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting jipmg: so the models are expecting rapid intensification? Well, at 18Z, some of the CHIPS ensemble members were. Still junk. Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

2289. stormwatcherCI 03:05 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Relix: They seem to be more confident in the system going north of the antilles. I am hitting bed WU, good night everyone! Goodnight and let me just say I hope you are right. Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040

2290. jipmg 03:05 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Forecast is for it to stay somewhat favorable for gradual strengthening the next 2 days or so, and then a significant amount of shear is forecasted according to local mets

2291. Relix 03:05 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting wunderkidcayman: and it will go more and more south I say it will be a caribbean storm Dude it's at 17.5 how the heck would it be a caribbean storm =P Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

2292. truecajun 03:05 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting MelbourneTom: Has anyone else noticed that with the new NHC FLASH availability that the overlays for the winds and SSTs do not seem to work anymore? it works for me?? Member Since: Agosto 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

2293. PackerFan2 03:05 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting wunderkidcayman: and it will go more and more south I say it will be a caribbean storm going for the big pot in the odds, i reckon

2294. BDADUDE 03:05 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
wunderkidcayman Not you too dude!! Member Since: Settembre 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602

2295. BahaHurican 03:06 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Ya'll, I'm just too sleepy to keep up now.... I'm headed out - like a light lol. I have yet another early morning (ready for a break!) so I should be in around 5 a.m. to see what advantage Dmax will bring to Erika. G'nite... Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17672

2296. Patrap 03:06 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting atmoaggie: If you are flying, I would be worried about the possibility of getting out if Erika is a threat to the area. Other than that, too early to say much else. Even then, that might be a consideration only if you are flying out of Norfolk or Newport News. Richmond would be easier, I would imagine. One more thing. If it looks like a threat and you have to drive at least as far as Richmond, leave early. Never did understand how 2 M folks could live at the end of one single 2-lane limited access highway. No other efficient way to leave the whole tidewater area, but to get on I-64. (unless something major changed in the last 4 years) That place has a worse evacuation issue than NOLA, they just don't know it yet. Or have forgotten since Isabel. No one evacs better than NOLA..period. Gustav was a Prime example of a Model Evac.., even for K ..and I was here..one could Have drove out up until the Eyewall Hit. 1 Million safely Evacuated in 30 Hours for Gustav,never has that been accomplished so fast and orderly. Re-entry was problamatic,but theres always room for Improvement. Once again,..study yer facts before going there. Rita in Texas in 05 was yer Nightmare scenario,..and Opal Almost caught many in 95 on I-10. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111599

2297. PackerFan2 03:06 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Relix: Dude it's at 17.5 how the heck would it be a caribbean storm =P because he is a south caster

2298. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:06 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
WTNT01 KNGU 020301 WARNING ATCN MIL 06L NAT 090902021125 2009090200 06L ERIKA 002 01 315 04 SATL 060 T000 175N 0576W 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD T012 180N 0587W 055 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD T024 185N 0602W 060 R050 045 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD T036 190N 0618W 060 R050 045 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD T048 195N 0632W 055 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD T072 210N 0660W 050 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD T096 226N 0684W 045 T120 245N 0710W 045 AMP #0001 NNNN SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020000Z --- NEAR 17.3N 57.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 57.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 18.0N 58.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.5N 60.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 19.0N 61.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 19.5N 63.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 21.0N 66.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 22.6N 68.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 24.5N 71.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 020300Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 57.6W OR APPROX 430NM E OF ST. CROIX. RADIUS OF 12 FOOT SEAS: 150NM NE, 90NM SE, 0NM SW, 50NM NW. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020901Z, 021501Z, 022101Z AND 030301Z.// BT #0001 NNNN 0609082612 114N 195W 20 0609082618 111N 210W 20 0609082700 109N 226W 25 0609082706 107N 241W 20 0609082712 103N 263W 25 0609082718 102N 288W 25 0609082800 103N 302W 25 0609082806 105N 320W 25 0609082812 107N 340W 25 0609082818 108N 360W 25 0609082900 108N 378W 25 0609082906 107N 392W 25 0609082912 107N 406W 25 0609082918 106N 420W 25 0609083000 108N 435W 25 0609083006 112N 451W 25 0609083012 120N 471W 25 0609083018 127N 486W 25 0609083100 134N 499W 25 0609083106 139N 510W 25 0609083112 145N 523W 25 0609083118 151N 536W 25 0609090100 156N 549W 30 0609090106 160N 560W 30 0609090112 164N 566W 35 0609090118 170N 570W 45 0609090200 173N 573W 50 0609090200 173N 573W 50 Member Since: Luglio 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40615

2299. TampaSpin 03:06 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
It sure looks like Shear is relaxing even further..... Member Since: Settembre 2, 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

2300. reedzone 03:06 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
The new track should remind others from the GOM coastline to Maine in the northeast to watch Erika. This is not a wishcast guys, Erika MAY pose a threat by Labor Day Weekend. Also with the way things are going, it wouldn't surprise me if Erika becomes a Minimal Hurricane by 5 a.m. tomorrow, long shot, but possible. Member Since: Luglio 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7247

2301. atmoaggie 03:07 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes: ive been here for alot of storms, there should be no problem leaving the area if it happens to hit. I thought the area was a hassle to leave on any given Friday. LOL. Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

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