Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Erika likely soon; a weaker Jimena powers towards Baja

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:48 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009

Hurricane Jimena has weakened to a low-end Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, thanks to the collapse of its inner eyewall. The hurricane is undergoing a process common in intense hurricanes called an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where the eye shrinks to a size too small to be stable, resulting in the disintegration of the eyewall, and the formation of a new eyewall from one of the outer spiral bands. Once the new eyewall becomes stable tonight, Jimena has an opportunity to re-strengthen.

The latest set of 12Z model runs show little change in Jimena's track. The hurricane is still expected to make landfall Wednesday along Mexico's Baja Peninsula. If the hurricane makes landfall over the southern portion of Baja, it would likely be at major hurricane strength. However, SSTs cool quickly to 23°C at the middle of the Baja Peninsula, and Jimena would likely weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane if it makes a strike towards the middle of Baja. The computer models are split on what might happen once Jimena makes landfall on Baja, with one camp predicting a northeast turn bringing the storm over Mainland Mexico and eventually into Arizona, and the other camp stalling Jimena out over or just west of Baja. Regardless, the main threat from Jimena will be flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.

Figure 1. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Invest 94L almost Tropical Storm Erika
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating tropical wave 94L, about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So far this afternoon, they have found a broad circulation with top winds of 45 - 50 mph in heavy thunderstorms on the east side. The circulation may be too broad for 94L to be considered a tropical storm, but visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation is getting better defined, and 94L's heavy thunderstorms are moving closer to the center of circulation. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 12Z model runs are more in tune with the idea that 94L will become a tropical storm, with the latest ECMWF run now on board. The storm will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. Since most of 94L's heavy thunderstorms and high winds are on the east side, the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico will probably be spared tropical storm force winds from this system. The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite image taken at 12pm EDT, Tuesday Sep 1, 2009. Five major African tropical waves are apparent. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in this morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

Jeff Masters

Backing Down (Fotoguy77)

Part of the massive Station Fire backs down toward Sunland, Ca in this shot taken around 1am. The fire has burned through over 122,000 acres and killed two.

getting out (Fotoguy77)

This fire Chief from El Dorado County in Northern California is chased out of Aliso Canyon by a wall of flames. This was in the Acton area just off the 14 Freeway.

Categories: Hurricane

Permalink | A A A

Top of Page

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200

Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1901 - 1951

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 — Blog Index

1901. Booeyb52 01:57 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting StormW: Good evening! StormW, take a picture, thats what a CDO looks like!

1902. truecajun 01:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
i did in highschool. we'd get them from mcdonalds. Member Since: Agosto 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

1903. JupiterFL 01:57 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting pcolasky: Question for anyone: I have three five gallon gas cans, two of which are missing the yellow closing caps...can you you buy the caps separatley or do I just need new gas cans? Stupid question but with the peak of hurricane season upon us... I am pretty sure you can buy the caps at Walmart. Automotive section. Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

1904. nolacane2009 01:57 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting gatorcanefan: Wow TWC is really, really lame. Its like watching amateur hour with the exception of Dr. Lyons who did a very brief tropical update just now. I can't stand the anchors, they are awful...just plain awful. I agree that is why I look towards my new friends for information. (that being The WU Friends) Member Since: Agosto 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 248

1905. futurenavymet 01:57 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
how do you have a avatar?

1907. EarthMuffin 01:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting crashingwaves: Looks like Erika may be an EC storm. By looking at the forecasted track for 5 days. But then again, the track changes constantly. But definetly something to watch. I lack a PhD in meteorology, so my opinion is worth a hill of beans, but I have felt all along that if Erika developed, she would be an East Coast storm. But dont say that too loudly around here, there seems to be a bevy of Florida wishcasters...

1908. kmanislander 01:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting presslord: lol....I'm guilty... I kept shifting the ruler ever so slightly thinking the storm would follow and go away LMAO Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1909. CosmicEvents 01:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting zoomiami: Ok - I give up - can't find it reading back, what happened to Weather Student? And, what info do we have from Oz about his location etc? WS sleeps with the fishes. Oz is an MSNBC celebrity. That's about it. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5098

1910. JRRP 01:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting StormW: 00Z STATISTICAL MODELS RUN 00Z DYNAMIC MODELS RUN more north...? Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4305

1911. gordydunnot 01:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I don't know which is better to be a lover, or a weather lover sometimes I suppose it makes no difference. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1912. stormwatcherCI 01:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting presslord: lol....I'm guilty... Me too and I think many more on here. Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8039

1913. Cavin Rawlins 01:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting gatorcanefan: Wow TWC is really, really lame. Its like watching amateur hour with the exception of Dr. Lyons who did a very brief tropical update just now. I can't stand the anchors, they are awful...just plain awful. I feel ur pain. He did not discuss Erika on the last update. Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1914. 7544 01:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
did erika just jumped west Link Member Since: Maggio 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

1915. BahaHurican 01:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting nash28: Maybe Erika can find a way to piss of Avila:-) I always get a kick out of a pissed off Avila discussion. LOL! This I am looking forward to also... and I think he has the shift tonight. Member Since: Ottobre 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17635

1916. mikatnight 01:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting JupiterFL: Thanks Pat. I learn something new all the time on here. Patrap is nothing short of amazing the way he seems to have so many graphics and pics at his immediate disposal... Member Since: Ottobre 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1969

1918. JLPR 01:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
could the center end up drifting towards the heavy convection effectively lowering it in latitude or is it impossible? Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

1919. boiredfish 02:00 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Admit kmanislander....you're as old as me......LOL Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 442

1920. justalurker 02:00 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I must say I am not suprised of the current status on Erika, Whenever I plan a trip to the Bahamas, It gets canceled..very frustrating! go away Erika, please I need a vacation.. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157

1921. kmanislander 02:00 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting gordydunnot: I don't know which is better to be a lover, or a weather lover sometimes I suppose it makes no difference. Ever tried snuggling up to a Cat 5 ? Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1922. pcolasky 02:00 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting JupiterFL: I am pretty sure you can buy the caps at Walmart. Automotive section. Thanx...Heard too many horror stories about gas being stored.

1923. Relix 02:00 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting 7544: did erika just jumped west Link She drifted west... but she did grow a LOT in mere hours. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

1924. AussieStorm 02:00 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Do I see moisture/rain being dragged into Erika?? Member Since: Settembre 30, 2007 Posts: 5 Comments: 13321

1925. Cavin Rawlins 02:00 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting futurenavymet: how do you have a avatar? upload any picture and set it to ur portrait to upload a picture, just goto "my photos" Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1927. kmanislander 02:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting boiredfish: Admit kmanislander....you're as old as me......LOL Hmmm!. Well, if you're younger than 60 I will fess up . Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1928. Relix 02:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting JLPR: could the center end up drifting towards the heavy convection effectively lowering it in latitude or is it impossible? It won't hit PR don't worry dude!!* Sweats and sweats some more Member Since:* Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

1929. largeeyes 02:01 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting StormW: Gonna depend on strength, forward speed, and any changes in the steering pattern...but earlier on the updated steering layers forecast, could be as close as 76W at the latitude of SC. I'm going to look at some things before I turn in. DOH! 77W in NC here. Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381

1931. gatorcanefan 02:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I must admit that i have great anticipation every time a tropical system gets near south florida. Not that i am a wishcaster, but I am fascinated by mother nature. During Frances, Jeanne and Wilma I was in awe of the fury of the storms. Now..the aftermath...plain awful. I will say that strong Cat 3 or higher and i am out of town.

1932. muddertracker 02:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
My grandma still has her magnet hurricane tracking board by her roatery phone (that doesn't work) in the den. I remember sitting with her and placing the red magnets on the board as we got new coordinates on the storms...way cool. Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2126

1933. antonio28 02:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
WOW Erika is Very Mad. Member Since: Luglio 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799

1934. Tazmanian 02:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Erika will be a hurricane by AM if she keeps going the way it is Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111341

1935. Elena85Vet 02:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting futurenavymet: how do you have a avatar? Blog vote. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 619

1936. JLPR 02:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Relix: It won't hit PR don't worry dude!!* Sweats and sweats some more lol Member Since:* Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

1937. FLGatorCaneNut 02:02 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting kmanislander: Ever tried snuggling up to a Cat 5 ? I tried in '92 but didn't work Member Since: Luglio 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 164

1938. Patrap 02:04 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting mikatnight: Patrap is nothing short of amazing the way he seems to have so many graphics and pics at his immediate disposal... Well thanx,but I owe it all to a Lady Friend in Boca who helps me a Lot.. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111393

1940. boiredfish 02:03 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Cool....lots of "oldies" in here....when I was a kid and there was a storm in the gulf I'd stay up all night before school just to get the new coordinates.... Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 442

1941. chucky7777 02:03 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting kmanislander: Ever tried snuggling up to a Cat 5 ? Yes my ex.......i lost everything.... Member Since: Ottobre 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 174

1942. centex 02:03 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
To miss the northern Islands it needs to start NW track now. Obvioulsy that's not going to happen so discount models because wrong in next 24 hours there best chance. Models will get better overtime just not tonight. Member Since: Agosto 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2856

1943. cchsweatherman 02:03 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Good evening all! After getting drenched throughout the day down here in South Florida, I come home from the campus and see an overly impressive convective mass that has become Tropical Storm Erika. Always great to come home to a new named storm. Right now, Tropical Storm Erika appears to have the deepest CDO I have seen in quite some time in the Atlantic Ocean. Not only that, but it appears that Erika has become markedly more organized than this morning as the latest descending QuikSCAT depicts and the recon data the Hurricane Hunters retrieved from their mission. I love how Wunderground now has the QuikSCAT imagery with their storm page. Now, as far as the future track goes, with the storm seemingly slowing down and with the dual upper level lows moving out of the picture from the SW Atlantic, this will give the Bermuda high more time to become better established which lends to a more westward solution down the road. Right now, I'm split on whether or not Erika will get curved in time not to impact the CONUS (which would most likely be somewhere from Florida to the Carolinas). Given the current trends with the system, latest evolution of the steering elements, and the computer model runs, I'm leaning on the side of a CONUS impact, but am far from certain at this time. Member Since: Aprile 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 4926

1944. snotly 02:03 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Might not be a hurricane but check out that convection. Wow! Link Member Since: Agosto 27, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 662

1945. StormFreakyisher 02:03 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
So goodbye Erika?It loooks to be strengthening tremendously with the big blob.So it will recurcve?No signs of weakening. Member Since: Maggio 16, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 684

1946. JupiterFL 02:04 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting pcolasky: Thanx...Heard too many horror stories about gas being stored. If you can't find the caps then they sell the cans with the lids. You could always buy new ones and put the caps on the old ones to store the gas. Use the new clean cans to store water if need be. Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

1947. kmanislander 02:04 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting chucky7777: Yes my ex.......i lost everything.... meow LOL Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

1948. truecajun 02:04 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I'll be 30 in one week and I used pencil tracking maps. I'm not THAT old. Member Since: Agosto 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1848

1949. largeeyes 02:04 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Patrap: Cool..Cherry Point was My Last Duty Station,..and I used to Hang out at Tony's not far from outside the Gate..there in 86. I live about 5 miles(tops) from the front gates. They're always buzzin the house with jets. You'll see the ocasional V-22(Osprey) flyin around town as well. Tony's I'm not familiar with, but I just moved to this house, and to New Bern 2 years ago. Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381

1950. Patrap 02:04 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Actually..most of what I post Tropically ,I get from the wunderground Tropical/Hurricane Page here. Save for maybe 7-8 Links. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111393

1951. 1900hurricane 02:04 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Although Erika is beginning to look more impressive, she still has a long way to go structurally. The COC is no longer exposed, but Erika remains asymmetric, with most of the convection concentrated on the east side of the COC. This is made even more evedent by this recent microwave image, which shows what Erika's structure looks like beneath the CDO. Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 10365

Viewing: 1901 - 1951

Top of Page

New Comment

Community Standards Policy Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

About JeffMasters