Tropical Storm Erika likely soon; a weaker Jimena powers towards Baja

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 07:48 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009

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Hurricane Jimena has weakened to a low-end Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, thanks to the collapse of its inner eyewall. The hurricane is undergoing a process common in intense hurricanes called an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where the eye shrinks to a size too small to be stable, resulting in the disintegration of the eyewall, and the formation of a new eyewall from one of the outer spiral bands. Once the new eyewall becomes stable tonight, Jimena has an opportunity to re-strengthen.

The latest set of 12Z model runs show little change in Jimena's track. The hurricane is still expected to make landfall Wednesday along Mexico's Baja Peninsula. If the hurricane makes landfall over the southern portion of Baja, it would likely be at major hurricane strength. However, SSTs cool quickly to 23°C at the middle of the Baja Peninsula, and Jimena would likely weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane if it makes a strike towards the middle of Baja. The computer models are split on what might happen once Jimena makes landfall on Baja, with one camp predicting a northeast turn bringing the storm over Mainland Mexico and eventually into Arizona, and the other camp stalling Jimena out over or just west of Baja. Regardless, the main threat from Jimena will be flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.


Figure 1. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Invest 94L almost Tropical Storm Erika
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating tropical wave 94L, about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So far this afternoon, they have found a broad circulation with top winds of 45 - 50 mph in heavy thunderstorms on the east side. The circulation may be too broad for 94L to be considered a tropical storm, but visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation is getting better defined, and 94L's heavy thunderstorms are moving closer to the center of circulation. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 12Z model runs are more in tune with the idea that 94L will become a tropical storm, with the latest ECMWF run now on board. The storm will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. Since most of 94L's heavy thunderstorms and high winds are on the east side, the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico will probably be spared tropical storm force winds from this system. The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.


Figure 2. Infrared satellite image taken at 12pm EDT, Tuesday Sep 1, 2009. Five major African tropical waves are apparent. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in this morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

Jeff Masters

Backing Down (Fotoguy77)
Part of the massive Station Fire backs down toward Sunland, Ca in this shot taken around 1am. The fire has burned through over 122,000 acres and killed two.
Backing Down
getting out (Fotoguy77)
This fire Chief from El Dorado County in Northern California is chased out of Aliso Canyon by a wall of flames. This was in the Acton area just off the 14 Freeway.
getting out

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1910. JRRP
01:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting StormW:


00Z STATISTICAL MODELS RUN



00Z DYNAMIC MODELS RUN

more north...?
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
1909. CosmicEvents
01:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting zoomiami:
Ok - I give up - can't find it reading back, what happened to Weather Student?

And, what info do we have from Oz about his location etc?

WS sleeps with the fishes.
Oz is an MSNBC celebrity.
That's about it.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5684
1908. kmanislander
01:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting presslord:


lol....I'm guilty...


I kept shifting the ruler ever so slightly thinking the storm would follow and go away LMAO
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1907. EarthMuffin
01:58 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting crashingwaves:
Looks like Erika may be an EC storm. By looking at the forecasted track for 5 days. But then again, the track changes constantly. But definetly something to watch.


I lack a PhD in meteorology, so my opinion is worth a hill of beans, but I have felt all along that if Erika developed, she would be an East Coast storm. But dont say that too loudly around here, there seems to be a bevy of Florida wishcasters...
1905. futurenavymet
01:57 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
how do you have a avatar?
1904. nolacane2009
01:57 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting gatorcanefan:
Wow TWC is really, really lame. Its like watching amateur hour with the exception of Dr. Lyons who did a very brief tropical update just now. I can't stand the anchors, they are awful...just plain awful.


I agree that is why I look towards my new friends for information. (that being The WU Friends)
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 248
1903. JupiterFL
01:57 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting pcolasky:
Question for anyone: I have three five gallon gas cans, two of which are missing the yellow closing caps...can you you buy the caps separatley or do I just need new gas cans? Stupid question but with the peak of hurricane season upon us...


I am pretty sure you can buy the caps at Walmart. Automotive section.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
1902. truecajun
01:59 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
i did in highschool. we'd get them from mcdonalds.
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1901. Booeyb52
01:57 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


StormW, take a picture, thats what a CDO looks like!
1900. centex
Sometimes it's not number of days but finding the sweet spot. This was hard because all the tools did not help determine when that would be. It did stay red couple of days so big picture turned out as expected, forget the models, NHC still pretty much told use when it would form, it just happened at end of range.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
Quoting kmanislander:


What happens if we admit to being around back then ??


lol....I'm guilty...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting boiredfish:
Just curious...how many of you fine people on this website have tracked hurricanes on maps with pencil and ruler due to there being no home computers in existence????


I did between 1998 and 2003. i got my first computer during Bill 2003 and my second this year.

I had a blank track map but I obtain surface maps via fax and black and white sat images. No models or nuttin.

But I could not complete 1998 due to Georges.
Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Wow TWC is really, really lame. Its like watching amateur hour with the exception of Dr. Lyons who did a very brief tropical update just now. I can't stand the anchors, they are awful...just plain awful.
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!
storm what do you thinks about the Girl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1894. Patrap
Quoting largeeyes:


It's in Craven county, which contains Havelock and the Cherry Point base.



Cool..Cherry Point was My Last Duty Station,..and I used to Hang out at Tony's not far from outside the Gate..there in 86.
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129842
1893. jipmg
Quoting Relix:
Oh God Erika just get it done and hit the islands then EC for God's sake. Jeeeesuuuus is it taking its time. It's like a good suspense movie!!!


its nearly stationary!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1892. sopla2o
I can't imagine that there are people here that actually look forward to a storm... This is incredible....

Having gone through a MAJOR hurricane and having had my home destroyed, having to deal with no electricity, water or basic necessities for weeks, I cannot imagine that anyone would even wish that a storm comes near them.

There are no words in the world that can describe the feeling of not being able to find your roof or your refrigerator for that matter after a storm passes. I don't wish that feeling on anyone...

Now I monitor and read... Mostly to learn not how to interpret storm movements... But to know when to pack up and leave...

Back to reading... good night....)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1891. JLPR
Quoting Relix:
Oh God Erika just get it done and hit the islands then EC for God's sake. Jeeeesuuuus is it taking its time. It's like a good suspense movie!!!



lol relax, go take a nap and come back =P
she will probably be on the same spot lol
Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting Patrap:


Nash Roberts,for those outside NOLA..was ,along with John Hope,,the Guy who designed the Butterfly Pattern that the HH use when penetrating Canes.
He and John Hope served together in the Pacific in the Navy during WW 2 and were the first true HH.
Nash famouly clled Betsy in 65 that Struck NOLA,.and 4 years Later he called Camilles turn at the Mouth of the River that spared NOLA,and devastated the Gulf Coast.

He is 92 and recently..he was featured on CBS here . When Katrina was coming in Aug 2005,..when folks saw Nash Roberts and His ailing wife Pack up and leave,..the whole neighborhood followed suit.
It is due to this man and Many Like him,..we can do what we do today.



More On Nash here.


Thanks Pat. I learn something new all the time on here.
Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
Quoting boiredfish:
Just curious...how many of you fine people on this website have tracked hurricanes on maps with pencil and ruler due to there being no home computers in existence????


What happens if we admit to being around back then ??
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
For some reason storms know when I travel. Had to fly into Charlotte and drive to Durham to beat out Isabel (our last significant storm). Now I'm due to fly to NY on Sept 10 and fly back on the 11th. Do the math ;)

Oh and if you really want to get away from the NC/SC coast come stay with me in Durham. That is unless Erika hits going NW through Wilmington, then I come stay with y'all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
weather student was banned forever
Member Since: Agosto 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1867
1886. Relix
Oh God Erika just get it done and hit the islands then EC for God's sake. Jeeeesuuuus is it taking its time. It's like a good suspense movie!!!
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
1885. jipmg
TWC just had a tropics update without mention of Ericka..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
stay on track or the Admins will ban you from the blogs this is a active time where the rules are strictly enforced.
Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Just curious...how many of you fine people on this website have tracked hurricanes on maps with pencil and ruler due to there being no home computers in existence????
Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 442
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
Erika is grabbing too much of my focus for a new freshman in college, i keep wandering back to this site every 5-20 min.

It's not a problem unless you replace your current calender with a tropical cyclone calender.
Member Since: Agosto 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5684
Looks like Erika may be an EC storm. By looking at the forecasted track for 5 days. But then again, the track changes constantly. But definetly something to watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1879. Patrap
Quoting canehater1:
Pat..we could always resurrect Nash Roberts with his felt pens and
paper diagrams..he could figure Erica out. lol


Nash Roberts,for those outside NOLA..was ,along with John Hope,,the Guy who designed the Butterfly Pattern that the HH use when penetrating Canes.
He and John Hope served together in the Pacific in the Navy during WW 2 and were the first true HH.
Nash famously called Betsy in 65 that Struck NOLA,.and 4 years Later he called Camille's turn at the Mouth of the River that spared NOLA,and devastated the Gulf Coast.

He is 92 and recently..he was featured on CBS here . When Katrina was coming in Aug 2005,..when folks saw Nash Roberts and His ailing wife Pack up and leave,..the whole neighborhood followed suit.
It is due to this man and Many Like him,..we can do what we do today.



More On Nash here.
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129842
Quoting Patrap:


New Bern,is that in Havelock County?,or the One in S. Carolina Near Beaufort MCAS..?


It's in Craven county, which contains Havelock and the Cherry Point base.
Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1462
Quoting canehater1:
Pat..we could always resurrect Nash Roberts with his felt pens and
paper diagrams..he could figure Erica out. lol


If you don't know who Nash Roberts is, read this short bio:
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
Raw T # is up to 4.0


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 SEP 2009 Time : 004500 UTC
Lat : 17:25:35 N Lon : 57:40:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.3 3.6 4.0



if this keeps going we may have a hurricane in the am

We won't have a hurricane till the LLC moves to the center of the convection, or close to it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!
Good evening. Just wondered where you were tonight. What's your take on Erika tonight ? TIA
Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Question for anyone: I have three five gallon gas cans, two of which are missing the yellow closing caps...can you you buy the caps separatley or do I just need new gas cans? Stupid question but with the peak of hurricane season upon us...
Now that the Models are starting to change. What are the chances of a GOM storm?
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 248
Cloud tops have exceeded 55000 ft or 16 km near the tropical tropopause and thus has spread out, like smoke hitting a ceiling.



Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Is it just me or did Erika just expand by about 4 degrees of latitude in the last frame or two?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
no need for D min and dmax it can now main taine its own
Member Since: Maggio 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1867. JLPR
Quoting justalurker:


common trend for erika, dmax, lets wait till tomorrow during dmin, if she will maintain strength..


we are still like 6hrs away from D-max
Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting Relix:


Entirely agreed we will get something out of it.

I can see watches (or was it warnings?) put up for the islands at 11AM as a precaution.
i think erika likes pinacolada from the islands she is coming down to us wv
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nolacane2009:


I agree people say the storm will move North but I do not see that happening. What do you think?


I agree also. What the models are indicating, in terms of skirting the islands to the north, and what I see happening by combining the French Antilles Radar with what is going on overhead us here and what the satellite loops show, seems rather different. A more westerly route appears to be taking place.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneluver:
Not to discredit Dr M, but he stated this morning that it would likely take a couple of days for Erica to form and look at her now. Goes to show you how mother nature can turn on a dime.


Forecasting the Tropics can be hard.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
THIS STORM IS GETTING BIGGER IN SIZE..


common trend for erika, dmax, lets wait till tomorrow during dmin, if she will maintain strength..
Member Since: Agosto 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
Quoting nolacane2009:
I am Very far from being an Expert or even claim to be one I guess it is just to worrying starting to come out.
Yea Im no expert either but it's my favorite time of the weather year. Hurricanes are facinating to me with all their raw power and it's fun reading the blog of characters on here, my kind of people.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
<
Member Since: Agosto 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting Weather456:
I think the NHC got fed up December 2005. I know I did. Ironically 2005 made it up to the very end.

And then some too! Zeta was able to fight his way into January of 2006. Amazing season 2005 was...
Member Since: Agosto 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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