Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting cybergrump:
The latest center fix from HH seems to be moving more west then north..

Yeah, after the center found the convection, I bet the path starts being more predictable.

Quoting Patrap:


Why sure,,just scroll back a Day or two..

Thanks. ;-)

Quoting stormpetrol:
The more intense & strong , the more poleward movement is the general concensus, but not necessarily the rule, there are exceptions, Dean in 2007 comes to mind as an example.

Ike last year, too.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.2 N...70.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB.

Hey, will40 - you got mail my friend!..so glad to see you on here.

Quoting stormpetrol:
The more intense & strong , the more poleward movement is the general concensus, but not necessarily the rule, there are exceptions, Dean in 2007 comes to mind as an example.

and andrew

Erika's future continues to be very uncertain to say the least.

Quoting stormpetrol:
The more intense & strong , the more poleward movement is the general concensus, but not necessarily the rule, there are exceptions, Dean in 2007 comes to mind as an example.

Dean and Felix had no choice 2007's high extended to 300 mb.

Also Karen would have made it west too.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yes but Dean has a monster ridge. The exact opposite of this year.

Nice observation, and Dean was also quite a bit further south than Mrs. Erkia

Dean continued due west because of the massive AB High which bridged with the SE CONUS heat ridge. Remember how friggin hot and dry it was throughout the SE that summer?

TS Erika RGB Blue Image

Quoting Dakster:


All that rum she is drinking, hanging out in the Western Caribbean... A stalling storm can do that, the convection may have finally found its way to being centered over the LLC. I would like to see a quickscat pass over a still visibile image.

The latest QuikSAT I saw has 50KT winds @0023hrs, the last one before that was 55KT at about 2342hrs

Since Erika is over a conducive environment for development it will probably become a hurricane soon because it is not moving.

Quoting danieltoye:

Hi Everyone haven't posted in a year or so but I live on Fort Lauderdale Beach.

From the NHC viewpoint it would be best if Erica develops quickly and would likely move more NW away from Eastern US. My fear is that if Erica remains weak it would likely move in a more westward motion and be in a position threaten Florida or the Carolinas. The waters are very warm and high heat content. The US biggest threats hurricanes that pop up close to the coast (within 700 miles of the coast) rather than the typical Cape Verde storms.

Did somebody move georgia again?

Quoting youngw3ath3rman:
the nhc is trying to keep us from knowing something!

Conspiracy theorist a new type of caster.

Quoting cybergrump:
The latest center fix from HH seems to be moving more west then north..

Also Dpass show it south of 17N not looking good.

Quoting Dakster:


All that rum she is drinking, hanging out in the Western Caribbean... A stalling storm can do that, the convection may have finally found its way to being centered over the LLC. I would like to see a quickscat pass over a still visibile image.

That's funny because my experience has been that copius amounts of Rum make women shrink.

Kinda band for the islands if Erika intensifies tonight

Antigua storm watcher

During the past couple hours, there's been a massive burst of very cold top convection right over the center. This flare could be a cyclic event, in anycase, if the convection is persistent, it could be indicative that Erika is trying to intensify. If this is the case, it also means the wind field will become more symmetric and would likely expand as the storm gets stronger. It all depends on whether the convection will stay or weakens or even sheared off to the east again. If the convection remains vigorous for the next few hours, the NHC may consider raising Erika's intensity. Another ReconAir will be enroute to attempt another fix and give a better estimate tonight.

Quoting willdunc79:
K8eCane I'm from fayetteville in SouthEast NC where are you at/from in NC?

hey sorry
got busy
i'm from Wilmington

Quoting Dakster:


All that rum she is drinking, hanging out in the Western Caribbean... A stalling storm can do that, the convection may have finally found its way to being centered over the LLC. I would like to see a quickscat pass over a still visibile image.

hahahahaha! so it appears Erika is a wild one xD

So is there a strong trough forecasted to weaken the ridge? as strong as the one with bill?

Quoting Patrap:
TS Erika RGB Blue Image

Rather old image Pat.

My heart goes out to all those effected by the "Station Fire" in LA, as well as those in the path of the dangerous Jimena.

TS Erika Floater - JSL Color Infrared Loop

Be sure to check the TFP Box and the MSLP box too.

Quoting antonio28:


Also Dpass show it south of 17N not looking good.

lets not forget its nearly stationary..

Now, just why is that pic just soooo cool!?

Good Evening to all. What is the thinking on Erika..TIA

hey there cjs also

*blows a lung-full desperately to the East in vein*
After witnessing George in '04 and dealing with the aftermath of Wilma in '05, the one thing I know for sure is that I never want to re-live that experience! It's unnerving watching all of your hard work get washed away in a mater of a few hours. Not to mention having to further the destruction yourself before you can even consider picking up the pieces to rebuild. Let's hope another year goes by without a devastating landfall.
I had a dream...er, nightmare last night...not good.

Where's WeatherStudent? I expected him to be here.

Quoting Weather456:
Where's WeatherStudent? I expected him to be here.

lol, i agree

Good evening WU community!

Well, we certainly will be busy these next coming days on this blog. Erika has slowed to a near crawl this eveening, and the deep convection has apparently finally caught up to the COC. Tha anticyclone definitely is aiding the cyclone in fighting off the shear which had been inhibiting it earlier today. The system is ventilating fairly decent right now obviously. Erika is definitely looking impressive this evening. The 11 p.m. advisory from the boys at NHC will really be interesting.

Quoting Weather456:
Where's WeatherStudent? I expected him to be here.

Preparing for Erika...LOL.

Quoting bajelayman2:
Now, just why is that pic just soooo cool!?

What image?

Quoting Weather456:
Where's WeatherStudent? I expected him to be here.

LOL..Ive been waiting for Hours for that one.

WS has been er,..replaced by more RAM in the server..permanently.

this site is awesome Link

yep
nervous about this one lookin at Official Track

Quoting canesrule1:
Since Erika is over a conducive environment for development it will probably become a hurricane soon because it is not moving.

Upwelling becomes a concern when storms move this slow. Another reason why Erika may not intensify rapidly.

Ericka continues to get better organized under marginally conducive upper level winds.

Erika 00Z SHIPS

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%)

Well I am going...not to bed...but to do some stuff and will check in early tomorrow morning on Erika, Jimena, wildfire, and anything else brewing.

Quoting Weather456:
Where's WeatherStudent? I expected him to be here.

Probably revived an IP ban for plagiarizing.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The last major to hit Georgia, bystander:

Thanks. That is my point. It is not impossible.

Quoting K8eCane:
hey there cjs also

just south of u in Oak Island