Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Erika likely soon; a weaker Jimena powers towards Baja

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:48 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009

Hurricane Jimena has weakened to a low-end Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, thanks to the collapse of its inner eyewall. The hurricane is undergoing a process common in intense hurricanes called an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where the eye shrinks to a size too small to be stable, resulting in the disintegration of the eyewall, and the formation of a new eyewall from one of the outer spiral bands. Once the new eyewall becomes stable tonight, Jimena has an opportunity to re-strengthen.

The latest set of 12Z model runs show little change in Jimena's track. The hurricane is still expected to make landfall Wednesday along Mexico's Baja Peninsula. If the hurricane makes landfall over the southern portion of Baja, it would likely be at major hurricane strength. However, SSTs cool quickly to 23°C at the middle of the Baja Peninsula, and Jimena would likely weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane if it makes a strike towards the middle of Baja. The computer models are split on what might happen once Jimena makes landfall on Baja, with one camp predicting a northeast turn bringing the storm over Mainland Mexico and eventually into Arizona, and the other camp stalling Jimena out over or just west of Baja. Regardless, the main threat from Jimena will be flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.

Figure 1. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Invest 94L almost Tropical Storm Erika
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating tropical wave 94L, about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So far this afternoon, they have found a broad circulation with top winds of 45 - 50 mph in heavy thunderstorms on the east side. The circulation may be too broad for 94L to be considered a tropical storm, but visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation is getting better defined, and 94L's heavy thunderstorms are moving closer to the center of circulation. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 12Z model runs are more in tune with the idea that 94L will become a tropical storm, with the latest ECMWF run now on board. The storm will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. Since most of 94L's heavy thunderstorms and high winds are on the east side, the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico will probably be spared tropical storm force winds from this system. The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite image taken at 12pm EDT, Tuesday Sep 1, 2009. Five major African tropical waves are apparent. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in this morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

Jeff Masters

Backing Down (Fotoguy77)

Part of the massive Station Fire backs down toward Sunland, Ca in this shot taken around 1am. The fire has burned through over 122,000 acres and killed two.

getting out (Fotoguy77)

This fire Chief from El Dorado County in Northern California is chased out of Aliso Canyon by a wall of flames. This was in the Acton area just off the 14 Freeway.

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1352. cjswilmingtoneye 12:24 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting willdunc79: K8eCane I'm from fayetteville in SouthEast NC where are you at/from in NC? Hey... I didn't realize there were this many people from NC on this blog.. Funny. I'm from Wilmington.. Anyone else? Member Since: Giugno 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 107

1353. chevycanes 12:24 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
the ascending pass happens in the morning and the descending in the afternoon. it only makes 2 passes a day. also, trying to see what time the pass is, look to the bottom right on the image. the purple writing is the pass time, not the buffer time or the time at the top. Member Since: Agosto 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 687

1354. jipmg 12:24 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Why cant I see any of canesrule's posts?

1355. gordydunnot 12:25 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Looking at dvorak center looks to be at 57.8 17.2 nearly under convection ,drifting west as it organizes. Who called for the stall at this point looks like we are filling info as we go along thanks for the hurricane hunter. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

1357. cajunkid 12:25 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Link Member Since: Luglio 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1239

1359. Stormchaser2007 12:26 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Erikas center continues to moves near the convection. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249

1360. palmasdelrio 12:26 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting stormpetrol: I've been out for a bit, one question, has any of the models taken it to where it has been so far? Please talk to to me man. Well, you've got a point there. Member Since: Maggio 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 178

1361. WPBHurricane05 12:26 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting jipmg: Why cant I see any of canesrule's posts? You have him ignored? Member Since: Luglio 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 7929

1362. Stormchaser2007 12:26 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting jasoniscoolman10: wow Seriously...stop posting old images. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249

1364. chevycanes 12:26 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
newest bam models should be out in about 15-30 minutes. Member Since: Agosto 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 687

1365. canesrule1 12:27 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting jipmg: Why cant I see any of canesrule's posts? go to the top and on the filter press "view all"

1366. AWeatherLover 12:27 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Patrap: Not a stretch of a Mind to state that Sept is gonna be Busy,its the Climatological Peak come Sept 10th,every year. A year ago tomorrow. 2 Sept 2008 Pat, you're a good guy, but that picture has been posted about 80 times on this blog in the past two days. Member Since: novembre 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 431

1367. SLU 12:27 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Very well organised now ... Member Since: Luglio 13, 2006 Posts: 11 Comments: 2851

1368. JLPR 12:27 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Weather456: thanks Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

1369. canehater1 12:27 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8...THOUGH THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE DONE SOME REFORMATION SINCE YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE ERIKA TO MOVE ALONG THAT GENERAL COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER... THE STORM COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS THE TRACK PROBABLY HAS A STRONG DEPENDENCE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF ERIKA. A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY MOVE MORE TO THE WEST...SIMILAR TO THE UKMET OR GFS MODELS. HOWEVER...A STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY FEEL THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND MOVE MORE TO THE RIGHT...LIKE THE HWRF/GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST IN THE LONGER-TERM. Translation: Stay tuned to the Erika show Member Since: Settembre 8, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 675

1370. will40 12:28 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting cjswilmingtoneye: Hey... I didn't realize there were this many people from NC on this blog.. Funny. I'm from Wilmington.. Anyone else? Emerald Isle Member Since: Settembre 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

1371. JRRP 12:28 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Member Since: Agosto 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4315

1372. jipmg 12:28 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
@canesrule w.e I'll just click show post everytime you post

1373. chevycanes 12:28 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
model site where you can run the loops of GFDL, HWRF, CMC, GFS and NOGAPS. Link Member Since: Agosto 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 687

1374. boatmanoki 12:28 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting caneluver: Jacksonville oak island

1375. canesrule1 12:28 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting SLU: Very well organised now ... wow... winds exceeding 50 knots.

1376. TheDawnAwakening 12:28 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Amazing storm Erika is becoming. She just has impressive outflow and almost always has in her life span as an invest. The southwest side had been struggling previously but has improved remarkably. All I can say is Wow! Hurricane is possible by tomorrow if current trends continue and centers align like they appear to be doing. Member Since: Ottobre 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159

1378. chevycanes 12:29 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
impressive quikscat. center right where the NHC has it. Member Since: Agosto 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 687

1379. AllStar17 12:29 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
NHC's satellites not updating.....making me mad! Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

1380. MelbourneTom 12:29 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Member Since: Giugno 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 600

1381. MrstormX 12:30 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Convection is really starting to wrap around the center, I wish there was a radar image nearby. Member Since: Maggio 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4233

1382. stormpetrol 12:30 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting palmasdelrio: Well, you've got a point there. No problem , Erika will drive you mad if you're trying to figure out exactly what shes going to do, nearly stationary, been that from this morning, just deciding where the center wants to relocate, that could be the best clue of direction, I don't trust these type of storms they've often proven the experts off and become quite dangerous, stay safe this season. Member Since: Aprile 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6404

1383. Dakster 12:30 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I predict Ericka will go somewhere between Brownsville, TX and the North Atlantic Canadian Maritimes. That should cover almost everyone's prediction in the blog. Because right now, I doubt g_d actually knows where Erika is going to end up. Member Since: Marzo 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4942

1384. canesrule1 12:30 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting AllStar17: NHC's satellites not updating.....making me mad! use the website below, it updates it satellite every 5 minutes... Link

1386. futurenavymet 12:31 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting connie1976: please don't say that a storm is going some place unless you are sure in your mind that it has a good chance to go there....that could scare people... connie i wouldnt say unless i though otherwise as you can tell by the hwrf model her stalling changes everything but me thinking ahead i knew was gonna put on her brakes wait for the trough to pass her. i dont wish but the current situation is grim for fl just hope the ship is off on intensity

1387. aquak9 12:32 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
There's other Jacksonville's besides NC...mind you, one is on the COAST of NE Florida. With a population of about one million. Member Since: Agosto 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25009

1389. cjswilmingtoneye 12:31 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting kingofhurricanes: DID I SAY PEOPLE LOSING THERE LIVES WAS GREAT..... DONT PUT WORDS IN MY MOUTH!!!!!!! BUT YES I DO LOVE A GOOD HURRICANE!!!!!! COME ON OVER ERIKA! I'm not putting words in your mouth, and I don't wish to argue, but I was literally SCARED of Katrina, and I can't imagine how anyone would want something like that. The reason I said something about loss of life is because if a hurricane the size and strength of Katrina is going to make landfall, there will certainly be some level of loss of life. So be careful what you wish for. It would also be somewhat of an oxymoron for someone to say, "I LOVE STRONG HURRICANES", but yet also say, "but I just don't like the loss of life". Wouldn't it? Member Since: Giugno 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 107

1390. JupiterFL 12:31 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting caneluver: Jacksonville I thought you were in Baton Rouge? Member Since: Agosto 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146

1391. willdunc79 12:31 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
On it's way to becoming stronger(which is good) because then Erika will be moving more North and be a fish storm. Member Since: Giugno 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 152

1392. Cavin Rawlins 12:31 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1393. canesrule1 12:32 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Northern Antilles and Virgin islands will probably be under a Tropical storm warning at either 11PM or 5AM...

1394. Ameister12 12:32 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I'm thinking 65mph by 11pm. Member Since: Agosto 9, 2009 Posts: 9 Comments: 3518

1395. connie1976 12:33 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
futurenavymet, I'm just paranoid... ;) Member Since: Settembre 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672

1396. Stormchaser2007 12:33 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting willdunc79: On it's way to becoming stronger(which is good) because then Erika will be moving more North and be a fish storm. Exactly. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15249

1397. zingocat 12:33 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting caneluver: Jacksonville Clinton here Member Since: Luglio 15, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 170

1398. AllStar17 12:34 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting canesrule1: use the website below, it updates it satellite every 5 minutes... Link Thank you. Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

1399. CybrTeddy 12:34 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Whoa momma! Thats some cold cloudtops! Member Since: Luglio 8, 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20280

1400. Cavin Rawlins 12:34 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Could Erika rapidly intensify? I haven't notice how she continues to grow Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1401. HurricaneKing 12:34 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting cjswilmingtoneye: Hey... I didn't realize there were this many people from NC on this blog.. Funny. I'm from Wilmington.. Anyone else? I'm from Bayboro NC but right now I'm in Raleigh at NC STATE. Member Since: Luglio 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2430

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