Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Erika likely soon; a weaker Jimena powers towards Baja

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:48 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009

Hurricane Jimena has weakened to a low-end Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, thanks to the collapse of its inner eyewall. The hurricane is undergoing a process common in intense hurricanes called an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where the eye shrinks to a size too small to be stable, resulting in the disintegration of the eyewall, and the formation of a new eyewall from one of the outer spiral bands. Once the new eyewall becomes stable tonight, Jimena has an opportunity to re-strengthen.

The latest set of 12Z model runs show little change in Jimena's track. The hurricane is still expected to make landfall Wednesday along Mexico's Baja Peninsula. If the hurricane makes landfall over the southern portion of Baja, it would likely be at major hurricane strength. However, SSTs cool quickly to 23°C at the middle of the Baja Peninsula, and Jimena would likely weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane if it makes a strike towards the middle of Baja. The computer models are split on what might happen once Jimena makes landfall on Baja, with one camp predicting a northeast turn bringing the storm over Mainland Mexico and eventually into Arizona, and the other camp stalling Jimena out over or just west of Baja. Regardless, the main threat from Jimena will be flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.

Figure 1. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Invest 94L almost Tropical Storm Erika
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating tropical wave 94L, about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So far this afternoon, they have found a broad circulation with top winds of 45 - 50 mph in heavy thunderstorms on the east side. The circulation may be too broad for 94L to be considered a tropical storm, but visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation is getting better defined, and 94L's heavy thunderstorms are moving closer to the center of circulation. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 12Z model runs are more in tune with the idea that 94L will become a tropical storm, with the latest ECMWF run now on board. The storm will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. Since most of 94L's heavy thunderstorms and high winds are on the east side, the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico will probably be spared tropical storm force winds from this system. The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite image taken at 12pm EDT, Tuesday Sep 1, 2009. Five major African tropical waves are apparent. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in this morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

Jeff Masters

Backing Down (Fotoguy77)

Part of the massive Station Fire backs down toward Sunland, Ca in this shot taken around 1am. The fire has burned through over 122,000 acres and killed two.

getting out (Fotoguy77)

This fire Chief from El Dorado County in Northern California is chased out of Aliso Canyon by a wall of flames. This was in the Acton area just off the 14 Freeway.

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1251. Brillig 12:07 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Can someone quickly explain Quikscat ascend vs. descend or point me to a handy reference? TIA Member Since: Giugno 23, 2006 Posts: 20 Comments: 398

1252. antonio28 12:08 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting 305st0rm: 8pm advisory says erika nearly stationary....what would this mean track wise? That she right on the official track and getting stronger as we type. Member Since: Luglio 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 799

1254. canesrule1 12:08 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting 305st0rm: 8pm advisory says erika nearly stationary....what would this mean track wise? The trough will pass without curving Erika thus making landfall somewhere in South Florida.

1255. Cavin Rawlins 12:08 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI: I see TS watches issued for St Kitts. Make sure you are careful and prepare as necessary. Gonna be. I'm expecting squally weather at most. Unless she decides the screw the NHC. Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

1256. Stormchaser2007 12:08 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Excellent structure. Next to leave Africa Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243

1257. AllStar17 12:08 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
HWRF = Bad scenario. Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

1258. Floridaprincess 12:08 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Where is StormW tonight?? Member Since: Agosto 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 11

1259. EarthMuffin 12:09 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting futurenavymet: thats right ericka right on schedule she is putting her breaks on just like i expected. now she is gonna stall like jeanne and frances did and crawl to florida. that weak trough that i call it will be gone and the high will build back in. she is down in the islands chilling on rum just waving at the trough laughing. Is there some particular reason you are blindly obsessed with Erika making landfall in Florida? Based on the current models (and I know they are known for varying degrees of inaccuracy), if Erika makes CONUS landfall, it will likely be somewhere along the eastern seaboard, north of Florida.

1260. futurenavymet 12:09 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting kanc2001: provided it even threatens that area at least 6-8 days out um never cause its not gonna happen

1261. jipmg 12:09 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting 305st0rm: 8pm advisory says erika nearly stationary....what would this mean track wise? mhm.. interesting, but stationary would let that blog absorb the main circulation and it could really pick up in strength, also the slower it moves..

1263. stormwatcherCI 12:09 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Weather456: Gonna be. I'm expecting squally weather at most. Unless she decides the screw the NHC. She has been so weird already and looks like GFS almost has an Ike path over eastern Cuba. Member Since: Ottobre 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8038

1264. canesrule1 12:09 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting AllStar17: HWRF = Bad scenario. 00z model or 18z model?

1265. dolphin13 12:09 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
What is a raw T# and what is its significance? Thanks in advance:) Member Since: Settembre 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 33

1266. jipmg 12:09 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting antonio28: That she right on the official track and getting stronger as we type. the official track never called it for slowing down to nearly stationary..

1267. FLWeatherFreak91 12:09 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting jipmg: thats a movement WNW-NW and then back WNW.. yes. You can see the last frame begins to take it west Member Since: Dicembre 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458

1268. nrtiwlnvragn 12:09 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Weather456: 5PM 17.2N 57.3W 7PM 17�28'N 57�02'W If you round off to 1 decimal point you get the center was relocated further east, probably due to that convective burst. The location from the Vortex message is in degrees, minutes so you have to convert to lat/lon. 17' 28' = 17.4666 57' 02' = 57.03 Member Since: Settembre 23, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 8918

1269. kingofhurricanes 12:09 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I WISH I WAS THAT LUCKY!!!!!! Member Since: Agosto 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 16

1270. Stormchaser2007 12:09 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting AllStar17: NHC says wave by the Cape Verdes is continuing to organize per 8 pm TWO. Development if any will be slow to occur. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243

1271. AllStar17 12:10 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Weather456: Gonna be. I'm expecting squally weather at most. Unless she decides the screw the NHC. Which she has done before... Quoting Stormchaser2007: Excellent structure. Next to leave Africa Impressive, StormChaser. Fred/Grace? Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

1272. TreasureCoastFl 12:10 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting canesrule1: The trough will pass without curving Erika thus making landfall somewhere in South Florida. why do you assume they dont know about the "meandoring" and have that factored in ? Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

1273. serialteg 12:10 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting canesrule1: The trough will pass without curving Erika thus making landfall somewhere in South Florida. Quoting EarthMuffin: Is there some particular reason you are blindly obsessed with Erika making landfall in Florida? Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1966

1274. canesrule1 12:10 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Excellent structure. Next to leave Africa Looks like a Bill.

1276. AllStar17 12:10 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Stormchaser2007: Development if any* will be slow to occur.* Yes... Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

1277. bajelayman2 12:11 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
So, after DMax? Is this the year of wide storms or what? A few, but wide AND strong..... Member Since: Agosto 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 468

1278. Stormchaser2007 12:11 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting AllStar17: Which she has done before... Impressive, StormChaser. Fred/Grace? We'll have to see. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243

1279. serialteg 12:11 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting dolphin13: What is a raw T# and what is its significance? Thanks in advance:) a satellite estimate (dvorak) on the intensity of the storm. Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1966

1280. AllStar17 12:11 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting canesrule1: 00z model or 18z model? 18Z I think. Ask adrian....he posted it. Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

1281. VAbeachhurricanes 12:12 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting dolphin13: What is a raw T# and what is its significance? Thanks in advance:) the the highest T# that is recorded while getting the reg T#. the Reg T# is a 3 hour average. thats how i understand it. Member Since: Settembre 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4797

1282. kanc2001 12:12 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting AllStar17: HWRF = Bad scenario. = hugoesque scenerio Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 181

1283. tedolphin 12:12 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting kingofhurricanes: WILL ANYONE TAKE A GUES AT A U.S. LANDFALL???? IF SO WHERE????? Miami?

1284. jurakantaino 12:12 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting jipmg: mhm.. interesting, but stationary would let that blog absorb the main circulation and it could really pick up in strength, also the slower it moves.. Yes have a feeling that this is a hurricane in the making faster than anybody expected! Hope i'm wrong. Member Since: Luglio 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

1285. canesrule1 12:12 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting EarthMuffin: Is there some particular reason you are blindly obsessed with Erika making landfall in Florida? Based on the current models (and I know they are known for varying degrees of inaccuracy), if Erika makes CONUS landfall, it will likely be somewhere along the eastern seaboard, north of Florida. blah blah blah, do you not understand that unless the high weakens to the west and Erika starts moving WNW at at least 10 to 15 MPH immediately!

1286. SonnyBurnett 12:12 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting hunkerdown: what do you expect, you are watching WSVN. Phil is no gem, but he is certainly an improvement over Bill "Supersoaker" Kamal. Member Since: Agosto 28, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8

1287. serialteg 12:12 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting Floridaprincess: Where is StormW tonight?? he had a dinner engagement with stormno and weatherstudent he promised to take some video Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1966

1288. bluehaze27 12:13 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Sometimes it seems that if you are in the center of the first cone, you are safe. Member Since: Marzo 26, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 794

1289. MelbourneTom 12:13 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 01 SEP 2009 Time : 231500 UTC Lat : 17:20:20 N Lon : 57:31:29 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# (3hr avg) 3.0 3.4 3.8 Member Since: Giugno 2, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 600

1290. will40 12:13 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
We all better hope she reaches hurricane strength and the upper level steering takes hold.A weak storm is looking too close for comfort. Member Since: Settembre 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 3439

1291. serialteg 12:13 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting jurakantaino: Yes have a feeling that this is a hurricane in the making faster than anybody expected! Hope i'm wrong. lets hold on to our bohios Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1966

1292. cjswilmingtoneye 12:14 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting EarthMuffin: Is there some particular reason you are blindly obsessed with Erika making landfall in Florida? Based on the current models (and I know they are known for varying degrees of inaccuracy), if Erika makes CONUS landfall, it will likely be somewhere along the eastern seaboard, north of Florida. Agree... Even if Erika gets within 70 miles of FL it could still turn to the north abruptly. Let us not forget Hurricane Floyd of 1999. That hurricane got dangerously close to FL without making a landfall. Anyways Erika is still far enough away that she has plenty of time to become stronger than forecast and go further north and out to sea(not saying that will happen), but it is still a possibility at this juncture. Member Since: Giugno 1, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 107

1293. Stormchaser2007 12:14 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting jurakantaino: Yes have a feeling that this is a hurricane in the making faster than anybody expected! Hope i'm wrong. It would be great if it became a Hurricane. That would cause it to go out to sea. Member Since: Giugno 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243

1294. canesrule1 12:14 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting canesrule1: blah blah blah, do you not understand that unless the high weakens to the west and Erika starts moving WNW at at least 10 to 15 MPH immediately! Erika will not be moving towards "north of florida" as you stated.

1295. connie1976 12:14 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
What is this storm doing? ...now it's not moving at all... what in the world does that mean? maybe it will be sheared to death? I hope anyway.... Member Since: Settembre 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672

1296. serialteg 12:14 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting will40: We all better hope she reaches hurricane strength and the upper level steering takes hold.A weak storm is looking too close for comfort. you really don't live in the caribbean, do you Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1966

1297. dcoaster 12:14 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Wow, seems to be a very defined split between the GFS/BAMM and GFDL/NOGAPS models. Haven't seen it spread that much in a while.

1298. hurricane23 12:14 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting AllStar17: 18Z I think. Ask adrian....he posted it. That was the 18z run from fsu. Member Since: Maggio 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13274

1299. JamesSA 12:15 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
I don't see the term 'RIP' anywhere on this page! Is it moving due west as it appears in the IR loop, or is that the convection moving over the top of the COC? What a difference a few hours can make! Member Since: Agosto 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579

1301. serialteg 12:15 AM GMT del 02 Settembre 2009
Quoting bluehaze27: Sometimes it seems that if you are in the center of the first cone, you are safe. this is a gem. if i had a signature, it would go to it Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1966

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