Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting WPBHurricane05:


I wonder if that has to do with the fact that you live in South Carolina North Carolina or Virginia.

Beauty lies in the eye of the beholder, I guess.

Touche!

00Z models shall be interesting.

Quoting 954FtLCane:


Lets see so property values go down, um try selling your house, and then insurance goes up...and so on and so on. Well since I can't afford insurance I'm going to build myself a 15 inch house......

Is it really worth building a 15" house with a 10k impact fee LOL

Quoting AllStar17:
Erika is moving more west of west-northwest in last few images.

Another one that sees this. Hopefully not a trend or us in the antilles will have something else to deal with.

Quoting Ossqss:
Wave forecast

Dramamine may be in order on a boat :)

Thanks! lol.... bringing lots of wine though.

Quoting Weather456:
JLPR,

kinda makes it worst for the islands but I would like to see if its a trend, but any short jog affects the islands, not so much those out ahead like the Bahamas, etc.

yep I do hope it is only a jog
but even jogs are bad =\

Quoting boyzNme:
My favorite tip for important papers is to mail them to yourself certified mail US Postal service will hold on to them, until you can get them.

Thank you for that. Another keeper.

What if the post office is destroyed?

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Yea you are right but the models have been all over the place esspecially the GFS. I am just forecasting based on how I see it. I have been watching that front and how it has been hanging around the last few days. It will gradually weaken each day but it is a race, will Erika slow down enough for the front to die off or will the front hang on and influence the track? That is the magic question IMO.

You're right, and unfortunately only mother nature really has the answers. Although I always appreciate the fact that you have the balls to say what you think on here. As for the GFS, each runs' operational model hasn't agreed with its ensambles ALL week, and one day there's ridging along the eastern seaboard, the next day it's disappeared. It's actually lost a lot of credibility this year, especially in comparison to the ECMWF.

Quoting violet312s:
I feel bad for the HHers. They've been out there for nearly 5 hours.

Thats only a Lil Hop,,most HH missions Last 10-12 Hours.

Sorry i messed it up....lol

Quoting AllStar17:
00Z models shall be interesting.

yep

Dr. Lyons
"Front will deflect Erica long before it gets to Florida".

Erika is really exploding... just like yesterday at the same time

Quoting flsky:


Pretty much all of FL is at risk for hurricanes. The majority of the population was born here and many of them are quite poor. I think that if they wanted to leave, many would not have the wherewithal to do so. There are narrow visions such as yours. Sometimes it's a good idea to take in the entire picture. (OK done preaching.)

Are you serious? Florida has some of the most wealthiest people and those are the ones that tend to live closest to the coastline. Every state has it's percent of poor but come on.. Florida is paradise. I am born and raised and abosolutely love it here and would never move because of that because in reality hurricanes are far a few between from hitting your exact area here.

Quoting Relix:


Another one that sees this. Hopefully not a trend or us in the antilles will have something else to deal with.

its already at 17N so a PR landfall seems unlikely but a close call seems very possible
a 50 -100miles encounter =|

Quoting PcolaDan:


Have to ask though, have you lived in the same house for 50 years and paid your insurance on it and never had a claim? Rates went up, but gradually over the years. The plan WAS solid until about 5 years ago. Now suddenly, $500 dollars more a month for insurance. May not break the bank for some, but sure can make things tight for retirees. Remember, 40 and 50 years ago, investing was not for the everyday person. That was done by the company for your retirement. And oh yea, that's not sacrosanct anymore either.

Have to wonder if Haboob's going to be challenged a little down the road, possibly beyond what he sees as manageable. It's karmic philosophy, man, and it might come in the form of a nasty cane.

Quoting Relix:


Another one that sees this. Hopefully not a trend or us in the antilles will have something else to deal with.

Where do you live Relix?

Quoting trey33:


Thanks! lol.... bringing lots of wine though.

Don't be surprised if your itinerary changes :)

Cozumel for instance ---- ~~~


BTW, I added a link to my post to the NCEP wave models.

Quoting Patrap:


Thats only a Lil Hop,,most HH missions Last 10-12 Hours.

and they may take two crews with them.

Quoting boyzNme:
And while gutting homes Post K,we were always amazed when opening a dishwasher that was in floodwaters. Clean as a whistle they were on the inside.

Thanks for the info Pat. I knew you wouldn't think I was making this up!! Like I said, this was a keeper tip!!

Yep. The dishwasher tip is a good one. I rescued my favorite set of glasses out of mine. Not a spec of muck on them. Other than being watertight, they are also usually protected under a counter top. So if the roof and the walls come down on op of it its got pretty good chance of making it.

Good evening!
I'm waiting for Erika here in St Martin, i hope i will be able to tell you how is it here tomorrow if the electricity is not too early cut (as usual)

jeez it is bombing out with those storms...

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Dr. Lyons
"Front will deflect Erica long before it gets to Florida".

well I agree with him, especially the fact that the front is like draped there.

But how far west it will go could affect where the storm is deflected, that is, North Carolina go north.

Could New England be as unlucky to get another system.

Raw T up to 3.5.

Quoting WXHEAD:

Yes, perhaps you're right! Touchy! Humorous anecdotes can always wait until the bandwidth is not so crowded I suppose. There is a chance I could have interpreted the post a little differently than you ascribed it to be. As long as Erika is being naughty and not obeying the prognosticators, I suppose her mischief will cause turmoil here in the blog. What are we up to almost 1000 in the last 2 hours? The site sure is slow, I suppose the WU server is operating at full capacity.
Point taken.

The Blogs here on a Busy Day, never use more than 3-4 % of the servers capacity.

Quoting Relix:


Another one that sees this. Hopefully not a trend or us in the antilles will have something else to deal with.

i see it too...8pm update?

Quoting wcoastfl:


What if the post office is destroyed?

When Ivan passed over the Cayman Islands most of the post offices had flooding and even sewage in them. Although we are a small country we lost many thousands of letters etc. When Paloma passed Cayman Brac the post office were so damaged they couldn't open for months. I don't think that is a smart idea.

Quoting cdnbananabelt:


Have to wonder if Haboob's going to be challenged a little down the road, possibly beyond what he sees as manageable. It's karmic philosophy, man, and it might come in the form of a nasty cane.

You never know...I might. I built north of I10 where no flooding occured during Katrina. Hopefully the next storm my house can take it but if not I have insurance and can take the money and go build else where where the rates may be lower and not go up as much.

Quoting TampaSpin:
Sorry i messed it up....lol

Is this cone going to shift to the left if Erika keeps going WNW. Because it looks like to me that it has to start turning more N right now to line up with that cone.Then again what do i know?LOL

Quoting TampaSpin:
Sorry i messed it up....lol

52, 58, 63 69 mph...sure aren't trying to cut an corners...

Quoting Weather456:


well I agree with him, especially the fact that the front is like draped there.

But how far west it will go could affect where the storm is deflected, that is, North Carolina go north.

Could New England be as lucky to get another system.

456 i agree.....Looks like a North Carolina strong possiblity to me.

Quoting CaribBoy:


Where do you live Relix?

Puerto Rico. On the north edge, a few miles west of San Juan. The beach is literally a mile away from me.

@JLPR: It's still under our latitude =P. A purely west movement could still get us, though that's very VERY doubtful to happen.

Quoting Patrap:


The Blogs here on a Busy Day, never use more than 3-4 % of the servers capacity.

Hey Patrap, you have urgent mail.

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Nope, live right down the road from you. About 20 miles.

For some reason I do not believe that. LOL

I remember the last Erika in 2003. I think she was Texas bound

Erika w/ 18Z models... all over the place... models will need another day with a few more center fixes before they start to converge or can be trusted... IMHO...

Quoting ProduceBoy:


You're right, and unfortunately only mother nature really has the answers. Although I always appreciate the fact that you have the balls to say what you think on here. As for the GFS, each runs' operational model hasn't agreed with its ensambles ALL week, and one day there's ridging along the eastern seaboard, the next day it's disappeared. It's actually lost a lot of credibility this year, especially in comparison to the ECMWF.

You just have to call it as you see it. That is what forecasters do for a living. You live and die by your forecast. I try to ignore the models if they are not in agreement. yes you have less tools to use but there are a lot of facts sitting in front of you from a simple satellite image.

NBC 6 out of Miami just proudly announced that south Florida was note in the 5 day cone. Needless to say that means nothing and gives the public the sense that they don't need to watch this storm.

Quoting Weather456:


I'm here theorize 2 things:

Erika is being steered by the shallow-mid layer flow which has become more westerly as some upper level features advances west and north.

The TAFB surface anlysis from 12Z to 18Z show ridge heights have increased (surface ridging expanding).

I still expect a general wnw to nw motion to resume.

1st theory: that makes sense. Movement and shear do not appear out of thin air. There must be a kicker for both, and since the ULL in the central atlantic continues to move out and weaken, it will not affect either movement or shear.

Therefore, the low-level flow which pushes storm must take over, but this flow doesn't look all that strong. In fact, the latest CIMSS steering maps suggests that Erika would have to be a strong cat 2 to gain any poleward movement or speed in general.

2nd theory: I don't have access to the TAFB ridging patterns currently, but the ridging makes sense. The ULL's couldn't be pulled out of the central atlantic and moving to the north without a multi-level ridge to guide it (I think the ridge is not just a surface feature, hence the term multi-level).

So, in this case, IMHO, both theories lead to the same conclusion and that is this: Erika will continue to NOT gain that much latitude until it strengthens dramatically, or a kicker emerges that can deflect the westerly flow.

Quoting mobilegirl81:

For some reason I do not believe that. LOL

haha i live in gautier and only someone from southern MS or AL knows where that is.

THose watches should go to warnings imo.

Quoting TampaSpin:


456 i agree.....Looks like a North Carolina strong possiblity to me.

and you were in the Florida not that long ago, posting the prrof...thats how fast/often weather changes with a lot of unpredictability.

Some of the deepest convection we've seen all year.

Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

haha i live in gautier and only someone from southern MS or AL knows where that is.

Gautier,,small but Nice folks.

Quoting Weather456:
I remember the last Erika in 2003. I think she was Texas bound

How fast will Erika have to go to be effected by the front? Is that why the models are split?