Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Tropical Storm Erika likely soon; a weaker Jimena powers towards Baja

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 07:48 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009

Hurricane Jimena has weakened to a low-end Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds, thanks to the collapse of its inner eyewall. The hurricane is undergoing a process common in intense hurricanes called an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), where the eye shrinks to a size too small to be stable, resulting in the disintegration of the eyewall, and the formation of a new eyewall from one of the outer spiral bands. Once the new eyewall becomes stable tonight, Jimena has an opportunity to re-strengthen.

The latest set of 12Z model runs show little change in Jimena's track. The hurricane is still expected to make landfall Wednesday along Mexico's Baja Peninsula. If the hurricane makes landfall over the southern portion of Baja, it would likely be at major hurricane strength. However, SSTs cool quickly to 23°C at the middle of the Baja Peninsula, and Jimena would likely weaken to a Category 2 or 1 hurricane if it makes a strike towards the middle of Baja. The computer models are split on what might happen once Jimena makes landfall on Baja, with one camp predicting a northeast turn bringing the storm over Mainland Mexico and eventually into Arizona, and the other camp stalling Jimena out over or just west of Baja. Regardless, the main threat from Jimena will be flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains.

Baja's hurricane history
The most powerful hurricane on record to hit the west coast of Baja occurred last year, when Hurricane Norbert made landfall on the central Baja coast with sustained winds of 105 mph (Category 2) . Norbert's central pressure of 956 mb at landfall made it the 3rd strongest hurricane to hit the Pacific coast of Mexico since record keeping began in 1949. Norbert killed eight, knocked out power to 20,000 homes, and damaged or destroyed 40% of the homes on the islands of Margarita and Magdalena. Norbert crossed the Baja Peninsula and made landfall on Mainland Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds.

Only two major hurricanes have made landfall on Baja since record keeping began in 1949. Both hurricanes hit the east (Gulf of California) side of Baja. The first was Hurricane Olivia of 1967. Olivia made landfall on October 13, 1967 as a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. Due to its small size and the unpopulated region of coast it hit, damage was minimal. The second major hurricane was Hurricane Kiko, which made landfall on August 27, 1989, as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (minimal Category 3). Kiko was a small hurricane and hit a relatively unpopulated area, resulting in no loss of life and only scattered reports of damage.

Figure 1. A plot of all the major hurricanes to pass within 200 miles of Mexico's Baja Peninsula since 1949. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Invest 94L almost Tropical Storm Erika
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are investigating tropical wave 94L, about 200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So far this afternoon, they have found a broad circulation with top winds of 45 - 50 mph in heavy thunderstorms on the east side. The circulation may be too broad for 94L to be considered a tropical storm, but visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation is getting better defined, and 94L's heavy thunderstorms are moving closer to the center of circulation. Recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University and the University of Wisconsin show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

The forecast for 94L
The latest of 12Z model runs are more in tune with the idea that 94L will become a tropical storm, with the latest ECMWF run now on board. The storm will be steered west-northwest to northwest over the next three days thanks to the presence to two upper-level lows to the northwest of the storm. Since most of 94L's heavy thunderstorms and high winds are on the east side, the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico will probably be spared tropical storm force winds from this system. The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite image taken at 12pm EDT, Tuesday Sep 1, 2009. Five major African tropical waves are apparent. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Elsewhere in the tropics
It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2). We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert.

California fire webcams
As I discussed in this morning's post, you can use our wundermap for Los Angeles with the fire layer turned on to see where the fire and smoke are located, and track the temperatures and winds during today's air pollution event. We also have two webcams with views of the fire: Altadena and Tujunga.

Jeff Masters

Backing Down (Fotoguy77)

Part of the massive Station Fire backs down toward Sunland, Ca in this shot taken around 1am. The fire has burned through over 122,000 acres and killed two.

getting out (Fotoguy77)

This fire Chief from El Dorado County in Northern California is chased out of Aliso Canyon by a wall of flames. This was in the Acton area just off the 14 Freeway.

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701. flsky 10:00 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Horizontal rain now in Cabo. Member Since: Ottobre 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1276

702. Cavin Rawlins 10:01 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting tornadofan: Dr Lyons mentions that a couple of models completely disipate Erika north of Puerto Rico. I'm sure Dr. Lyons will soon endure a savage attack on this blog. No one is surprise that dr. Lyons said that. This is what he said with Bill "Bill is expected to impact the Canadian Maritimes as a category 1 hurricane, so they should be fine there" I've been watching him long enough to know he knows his stuff but the TWC has him downplaying everything. Afterall who is going to sponsor the weather channel if no one goes on cruises and vacation to the tropics. Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

703. jipmg 10:01 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
so we finally have our 5th named storm

704. TreasureCoastFl 10:03 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting KeyWestwx: O.K. Saturday Night Live fans. Click on the Altadena fire webcam on Master's post and look for Mr. Bill. Older SNL fans will know him and Mr. B is there for the finding. Ya got to go look. "Ohhhnooooo!!!!" lol I see him! Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 444

705. gordydunnot 10:03 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Lat shear tendency map going +-3 hrs.looks like high is building from west to east across Fl. into Atlantic,does anyone see that or am I looking at it wrong. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3044

706. serialteg 10:03 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting viequessun: Be alert! slow movement can be dangerous to us here in the Borinquen Pretty notorious, I see her going up Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1966

707. JLPR 10:04 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting Weather456: No one is surprise that dr. Lyons said that. This is what he said with Bill "Bill is expected to impact the Canadian Maritimes as a category 1 hurricane, so they should be fine there" I've been watching him long enough to know he knows his stuff but the TWC has him downplaying everything. Afterall who is going to sponsor the weather channel if no one goes on cruises and vacation to the tropics. ha! lol xD I want to go on a cruise now =P Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

708. tornadofan 10:04 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting Weather456: No one is surprise that dr. Lyons said that. This is what he said with Bill "Bill is expected to impact the Canadian Maritimes as a category 1 hurricane, so they should be fine there" I've been watching him long enough to know he knows his stuff but the TWC has him downplaying everything. Afterall who is going to sponsor the weather channel if no one goes on cruises and vacation to the tropics. I wasn't disagreeing with Dr. Lyons. I was just anticipating doomcasters being upset. Surprisingly, reaction is calm. Member Since: Aprile 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345

709. Grothar 10:05 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting KeyWestwx: O.K. Saturday Night Live fans. Click on the Altadena fire webcam on Master's post and look for Mr. Bill. Older SNL fans will know him and Mr. B is there for the finding. Ya got to go look. "Ohhhnooooo!!!!" Is Sluggo with him?? Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19548

710. 92Andrew 10:05 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Are there points in time which would give TS Erika an opportunity to develop into something big? What about sheer? The storm has a moist environment and lots of convection, but it is to the east of the coc. If the storm encounters a strong bout of sheer ahead of it, especially looking in this condition, then it may break apart. Again, how strong will the sheer be in the next few days? Member Since: Luglio 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 96

711. HaboobsRsweet 10:05 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
woohoo NHC used common sense with this track. There is no way Erika plows through the front...the front will keep it off the east coast if it can survive the shear. Member Since: Maggio 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

713. snow2fire 10:06 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
RE: 668. to violet312s and Hurricane009: I'm in Cary, NC On the cool weather - my AC went out Sunday and I just got it fixed this afternoon. I am so lucky - no AC in NC - in August !!! - and it wasn't miserable. Member Since: Giugno 5, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 158

714. serialteg 10:06 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Does that Tropics Chat work for anyone? It stalls in "Connecting" for me, always, ever since I tried it well ever Member Since: Agosto 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1966

715. weathermanwannabe 10:07 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Getting ready to head home but remember the basic rules (that I just alerted my homies in South Floria to). If Erika remains relatively weak over the next three days, you can expect a little more movement to the West and a corresponding shift in the models to the left. If Erika "blows up" over the next three days into a full fledged cane, then we can expect her to stay on the current or east side of the guidance envelope and she will proably not threaten Florida. Then, the "x" factor may be any ridging east of Georgia or the Carolinas, in about 4-5 days time, that could push her to the West again. Too many variables at the moment and we will not have a good idea of where she is actually going until around Friday or Saturday. Good time for those in the Bahama's and Florida to review their hurricane plans, and stock up on the usual supplies, just in case (which you should have done already) to avoid possible lines at the stores come Labor Day Weekend if she heads in your direction during the Weekend. I'm hoping right now for some rapid development in the short term to keep her off of the Bahamas and Florida to the East on the weak side...WW Member Since: Agosto 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6702

716. Cavin Rawlins 10:09 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting tornadofan: I wasn't disagreeing with Dr. Lyons. I was just anticipating doomcasters being upset. Surprisingly, reaction is calm. lol, the reaction is calm becuz of post 702. We really have come to expect that from Dr Lyons. Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

717. toddluck 10:07 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
it doesnt work from my work pc Member Since: Aprile 28, 2006 Posts: 209 Comments: 14124

718. gatorcanefan 10:09 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Wow convection is really flaring up in erika.

719. OracleDeAtlantis 10:10 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting gordydunnot: Just so everyone knows not that repeating anything on this blog sinks into some peoples heads. The reason why there is so much interest from people in fl. concerning hurricanes is the next one we have that is severe may cause a major dislocation to fl. in general no matter what part of the state the storm hits. This maybe come a national issue much like a major earthquake in Calf. would do. I know this is inevitable, but in the next few years it would sure be a shame for fl. and possibly the country. You cannot have a economy without insurance. You can have an economy, but it becomes like the Third World. The biggest problem in Florida, is the number of people on fixed incomes who can't afford the higher insurance rates, so they just do without wind coverage. In this case Uncle Sam just turns on the printing presses, and all is well again. There's nothing to worry about, really. Just remember the line from that famous Alabama song .... "But Mr. Roosevelt's a gonna save us all." Member Since: Agosto 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 290

721. jurakantaino 10:10 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting Patrap: The Best part of the Story,,is that the Storm comes and goes,..and after a MAJOR Impact,well the fun goes away as fast as the winds. Misery comes to mind,.suffering comes to mind..and well,CNN and Cable news dont carry the smells and Horror too well . Well we all know that.But for us weather lovers there is nothing that we could do to stop a hurricane unless we are Bill Gates, so lets enjoy the wonder and power of nature in its best form, and of course during,before and after the disaster, do the best to safe yourself, your family,your property as well as your fellow brothers and sister. Member Since: Luglio 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730

722. farhaonhebrew 10:10 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting mrpuertorico: yes it looks like our protective shield is still strong lol everything seems to just miss us am not confident the latest frames suggest a more western movement..maby brush us.. Member Since: Luglio 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 235

723. HaboobsRsweet 10:11 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Erika may have time to hit Cat 1 status before being influenced from the front that is crawling off the east coast. Once that front interacts with the storm it will start to sheer apart and weaken just like Danny. Member Since: Maggio 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

724. amd 10:11 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
1st vortex message from Erika: Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 21:58Z Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation. Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305) Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 09 A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 21:21:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°08'N 57°05'W (17.1333N 57.0833W) B. Center Fix Location: 313 miles (504 km) to the ENE (66°) from Roseau, Dominica. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 92 nautical miles (106 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 197° at 38kts (From the SSW at ~ 43.7mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 85 nautical miles (98 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 416m (1,365ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 415m (1,362ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:25:20Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 21:54:00Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SE/SSE (146°) from the flight level center Member Since: Agosto 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024

725. tornadofan 10:11 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting Weather456: lol, the reaction is calm becuz of post 702. We really have come to expect that from Dr Lyons. Darn! Spoiled my fun! Member Since: Aprile 5, 2007 Posts: 83 Comments: 12345

726. Grothar 10:11 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting KeyWestwx: O.K. Saturday Night Live fans. Click on the Altadena fire webcam on Master's post and look for Mr. Bill. Older SNL fans will know him and Mr. B is there for the finding. Ya got to go look. "Ohhhnooooo!!!!" How did you ever see him on that pole? Member Since: Luglio 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19548

727. HaboobsRsweet 10:12 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
I am curious if the models verify in the long range...it looks like not the yellow circle but a wave behind it could come off way lower than these last two waves. If that happens then things might get interesting. Still a long long ways off and who knows if it verifies. Member Since: Maggio 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

728. RJT185 10:13 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting Chavalito: And there are people saying that 94L will affect Puerto Rico. Those should read Dr. M analysis: Virgins Islands and PR will be spared from TS winds. I sustain that this feature won't affect us in any sense, let' see. Chris, Hugo, Marylin, Sebastien, Bertha, Fran, Georges, Jose, ... all were grazes or hits in the 90's that were in similar locations. Heck! 94L reminisces both the 1997 Erika, Klaus. Member Since: Agosto 31, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 250

730. futurenavymet 10:14 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting HaboobsRsweet: Erika may have time to hit Cat 1 status before being influenced from the front that is crawling off the east coast. Once that front interacts with the storm it will start to sheer apart and weaken just like Danny. how many crows you bet? that trough is weak

731. Relix 10:14 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
@viequessun: Slow movement won't change things at all except if it stalls over PR. What could change things is if it weakens, which could cause her to move more to the west than NW. Seems to be strengthening so a NW course is taking place. Will probably pass 250+miles north of us. Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

732. squish66 10:14 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Watching from UK. Latest satellite pic's show the classic 'embryonic' form appearing in imagery. Erika is blowing up well, albeit still not directly above the LLCC. My opinion is the centre will be dragged back east a touch because of such strong convection to the east finally linking up, and then move slowly WNW. Member Since: Agosto 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 11

733. rxse7en 10:15 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting Patrap: Is good to be Behind da Front...Low Midity,N Breeze,excellent Sept 1 Pat, no matter how bad that wv blob over Jax looks in the last few frames, would you believe it's just overcast? I can't wait to get on the north side of that system. Trying to get our house painted after I replaced all the water-damaged board. Member Since: Agosto 21, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 526

734. 92Andrew 10:15 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting weathermanwannabe: Getting ready to head home but remember the basic rules (that I just alerted my homies in South Floria to). If Erika remains relatively weak over the next three days, you can expect a little more movement to the West and a corresponding shift in the models to the left. If Erika "blows up" over the next three days into a full fledged cane, then we can expect her to stay on the current or east side of the guidance envelope and she will proably not threaten Florida. Then, the "x" factor may be any ridging east of Georgia or the Carolinas, in about 4-5 days time, that could push her to the West again. Too many variables at the moment and we will not have a good idea of where she is actually going until around Friday or Saturday. Good time for those in the Bahama's and Florida to review their hurricane plans, and stock up on the usual supplies, just in case (which you should have done already) to avoid possible lines at the stores come Labor Day Weekend if she heads in your direction during the Weekend. I'm hoping right now for some rapid development in the short term to keep her off of the Bahamas and Florida to the East on the weak side...WW Nicely put. Too many changing variables in the next couple of days to accurately predict where the storm is going. It does not however seem the storm will blow up tomorrow, but i dont look at sheer maps to be able to say it definitively that it will or will not intensify rapidly. Member Since: Luglio 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 96

735. JLPR 10:15 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
convection looking impressive Member Since: Settembre 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

736. Cavin Rawlins 10:16 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Some high cloud tops now Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

737. jipmg 10:18 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting squish66: Watching from UK. Latest satellite pic's show the classic 'embryonic' form appearing in imagery. Erika is blowing up well, albeit still not directly above the LLCC. My opinion is the centre will be dragged back west a touch because of such strong convection to the east finally linking up, and then move slowly WNW. This.. Erika will slow down a bit due to the convection erupting right next to it if not right at the tip of the LLC.

738. HaboobsRsweet 10:17 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting futurenavymet: how many crows you bet? that trough is weak Plenty...I have been saying for about a week now this is an east coast storm because the front will stall right off the coast and move slowly. So far so good and I had about 10 people telling me I was going to eat crow when I said east coast over gulf about a week ago so no worries here. The trough is a surface front, not just an upper level trough moving through so it isnt as weak as you think it is. It is stacked all the way up. I would watch for a spin off of the shear line similar to Claudette as well. Not saying it will happen but conditions are right for it again. Member Since: Maggio 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

739. jbplefty 10:17 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Looks like Erika will hit the Hebert zone. Member Since: Agosto 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6

741. AllStar17 10:19 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Threw together a quick graphic comparing Chris and Erika. Rita would not be on this map it formed near 22 N and 69 W. Member Since: Giugno 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5135

742. Patrap 10:20 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting WXHEAD: And we all live happily ever after in our FEMA trailers.. After 27 Mths in one..I can definitely state this.. It sucked. Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 372 Comments: 111605

745. edmac 10:20 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Can anyone give me the % of an east coast hit vs. the % of recuving. I know there are alot of varibles, and a whole lot of time. But just a good guesstimate will help out. Member Since: Febbraio 27, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 31

746. HaboobsRsweet 10:21 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis: You can have an economy, but it becomes like the Third World. The biggest problem in Florida, is the number of people on fixed incomes, who can't afford the higher insurance rates, so they just do without wind coverage. In this case Uncle Sam just turns on the printing presses, and all is well again. There's nothing to worry about, really. Just remember the line from that famous Alabama song .... "But Mr. Roosevelt's a gonna save us all." If you cant afford it then dont live there. I have a hard time having sympathy for people that live above their means, dont pay for the insurance and loose everything. Of course I still feel obiligated to jump up and help anyone out in a crisis but it doesnt sit well with me whenthey dont do what they should then beg for help. Member Since: Maggio 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640

747. jipmg 10:21 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
based on the position at 5 pm, the system is now under the convection (NOT THE STRONGEST PART though)

748. Cavin Rawlins 10:21 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Ominous Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

749. canesrule1 10:21 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Erika looking impressive on satellite. Expect winds at 60 MPH at 8 PM.

750. jipmg 10:22 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting edmac: Can anyone give me the % of an east coast hit vs. the % of recuving. I know there are alot of varibles, and a whole lot of time. But just a good guesstimate will help out. 50-50, half the models take it WNW, then NW, then back WNW, the other half take it WNW, NW, and then NNW

751. Relix 10:22 PM GMT del 01 Settembre 2009
Quoting jipmg: This.. Erika will slow down a bit due to the convection erupting right next to it if not right at the tip of the LLC. Any wobble west means more wind and rain for us in the islands. Will await that west wobble though! Member Since: Agosto 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2358

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