Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Good afternoon folks:

This the trough that the ECMWF expects to lift invest 94L out, not the current trough. It is a slightly amplified longwave trough that is expected to emerge of the canadian eastern maritime seaboard by Tuesday.

12Z ECMWF Tuesday



12Z gfs




The GFS expects the trough to be a slightly weaker. If we analyze further, it becomes evident that it is all about that timing and the strength of this weak longwave trough. The GFS and the CMC expects this system to move faster west than the ECMWF, thus, dodging most of the weakness. On the other hand if the trough is inadequate, it would still miss it. Even if the GFS were to slow it down in the 12Z run, it would still not go out to sea, because the trough is too weak.


Let's just wait and see

Cape Verde trains a rolling!

Thanks for the update and the thoughts Dr. Masters.

Prayers for those in the path of Jimena and the CA fires.

Thanks Dr. M.

Thanks Dr. M!

The 12z GFS has a thunderstorm rolling through the bahamas.

I hear the train a comin'.....

Thanks Doc. wow!! a 50mph invest it's either a strong wave or their about to upgrade it. All hell break loose the African wave train is steaming down the tracks everyone watch out... aahhh! Also nervous times and a scary situation in California.

Current location of the Hurricane Hunters:

308 miles to the E from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.

Like Dr. Masters noted,the wave train over Africa will be spitting them out every 60-72 hours for a spell.

A Look back below at One year ago Tomorrow.

Climatology says beware the Month of Sept,specially the First Half.

Atlantic Basin 2 Sept 2008

Thanks for the update.

Maybe some of the African waves will prove more interesting.

"The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda."

Wave just of the african coast looks nice BUT should stay out to sea.

"The smoke over Colorado -- which has made the mountains west...invisible from downtown Denver -- has come directly from the massive 85,000-acre wildfire in Southern California."
Actually the StationFire already extends over 122,000acres / 190sq.miles / 492sq.kilometres.

show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

that's for those saying "but it has an anticyclone so it's not being sheared."

23 hit the nail on the head in the previous blog. if it strengthens it will mostly likely go out to sea. if its weak, we'll get a tropical wave heading towards to Bahamas.

"people all over the blog, join hands, here comes the storm train, the storm train"

Sept 1 - here we gooooooo

Crazy African waves....

Thank you!

Looks like it will be getting busy soon. Will these curve north as well.hmmmmm

Good afternoon... thx Doc.

Quoting btwntx08:

thats not funny

?

It wasnt meant to be funny.

Quoting chevycanes:
show that wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 94L, and this shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the system's west side.

that's for those saying "but it has an anticyclone so it's not being sheared."

23 hit the nail on the head in the previous blog. if it strengthens it will mostly likely go out to sea. if its weak, we'll get a tropical wave heading towards to Bahamas.

I agree. Put me in that camp.

Quoting hurricane23:
The 12z GFS has a thunderstorm rolling through the bahamas.

LOL!

94L has winds already at 50 mph

Are those gusts or sustained winds

Have there ever been 5 storms off of africa all at once?

Or is this some kind of new record?

There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well (Figure 2).

hence my Septermber Outlook

Ill be watching this wave.

Good latitude and SAL should be low when it exits.

Quoting TexasHurricane:
Thank you!

Looks like it will be getting busy soon. Will these curve north as well.hmmmmm

You worded that as incorrectly "will these systems curve north as well). "As well" what? 94L has not curved and possibly might not curve.

Quoting TexasHurricane:
Thank you!

Looks like it will be getting busy soon. Will these curve north as well.hmmmmm

if the general pattern stays the same as it has all summer then most likely. heading into fall the troughs deepen even more.

if something forms in the gulf or caribbean that would be the best chance for a land falling system.

or something just off the east coast somewhere but it would have to be kinda close to land.

Quoting hurricane23:
Wave just of the african coast looks nice BUT should stay out to sea.

Wrong answer....enviroment may a bit difficult for development but due to the current ridge forecasted a west movement is very likely.

Wind shear is not the problem with 94L, its dry air. Ana had the same problem.

An upper level high is centered over the center providing low shear.

And there are people saying that 94L will affect Puerto Rico. Those should read Dr. M analysis: Virgins Islands and PR will be spared from TS winds. I sustain that this feature won't affect us in any sense, let' see.

Quoting btwntx08:

incorrect

not really but ok.

Quoting Speeky:
94L has winds already at 50 mph

Are those gusts or sustained winds

Have there ever been 5 storms off of africa all at once?

Or is this some kind of new record?

They arent storms.

They are just waves. Its very likely that there have been way more than this. My guess was that 1995 had more.

bwtntx - you sure do feel like you can judge eveyone....Sorry - I don't usually get involvd in this stuff - BUT - no one knows what is going to happen and eveyone is entitled to an opinion....even if you happen to disagree. I understand I will probably make the illustrious Ignore list for this...but at least I said my peace.

Quoting btwntx08:

incorrect

Support your self with facts.

HPC Extended Forecast Discussion


MEANWHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN IS A FAST/STRONG OUTLIER
WITH ITS TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT TRACKS TO THE MID ATLC COAST.
VERIFICATION THUS FAR THIS SEASON DOES NOT FAVOR THE CMC SOLN.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG REMAINING SOLNS... WITH
16Z TPC/HPC COORDINATION YIELDING A MERE TROF APPROACHING THE SERN
COAST BY DAY 7 TUE BASED ON POTENTIAL FOR AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD.

The best guess track for 94L, assuming it does intensify into a tropical storm in the next 24 hours, is on a northwest path between the Bahamas and Bermuda. If 94L stays weak, a more southerly path, along the northern edge of the Bahama Islands, is more likely.

from Dr. Masters.

Clear to see that there is 25 knots of shear in the 200-850mb region.

Anybody use Gmail? I'm getting server erors...

Seems like PR will definitely be spared the worst. Good =D. Time to watch the other systems, especially #2. #1 is bound to be a fish that north... or who knows... too far away.

Quoting canesrule1:
You worded that as incorrectly "will these systems curve north as well). As well what? 94L has not curved and possibly might not curve.

yeah, I didn 't word that right....I just assume it will curve..that just seems to be the case with them this year. If 94l does end up not curving then it will get sheared and die right?

Interesting...



And vorticity is increasing with 94L and with the Cape Verde AOI.

Ummm ok

So for good measure, assuming 94L stays weak, you should always turn your back on a tropical wave moving into the Bahamas in September, right?


And just like Jeanne in 04, this is surely going out to sea if it strengthens, do I have that right?

Look at that fantastic wave with massive spin over Africa around 5W...looks better thna it was 6 hours ago..
Should be exiting Africa next day or so...

anybody like to comment on that one if you care to take a break from 94L :)