Bill intensifies to Category 4; globe has 5th warmest July on record
Category 4 Hurricane Bill is now the the fourth strongest tropical cyclone to appear on the planet so far this year, and may grow even stronger. Visible and infrared satellite imagery continue to show an impressive, well-organized, hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow well-established on all sides except the west. On Bill's west side, upper-level winds from the west are creating a modest 10 knots of wind shear, which is giving the hurricane a bit of a squashed appearance there.
Wind shear is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 28.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content is at a maximum today, and will gradually decline over the next four days. Bill should be able to take advantage of these favorable conditions a remain a major hurricane the next three days.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
Water vapor satellite loops show a small "short-wave" trough of low pressure to the north-northwest of Bill, and this trough has turned Bill on a more northwesterly track over the past two days. Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the main impact of the hurricane on these islands will be high waves. The short wave trough (so called because it has a relatively small amplitude and wavelength) is not strong enough to turn Bill due north, and Bill is also expected to miss Bermuda. High waves and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph are the worst that Bermuda is likely to get from Bill.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Bill's eye zoomed in, taken from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
An unusually strong "long wave" trough of low pressure (called long wave because of its large amplitude and wavelength) is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week. This trough will turn Bill to the north, and also bring high levels of wind shear in the 40 - 65 knot range on Sunday. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear. The models continue to be in two camps: an eastern camp (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF) that takes Bill 300 - 500 miles east of Cape Cod, and a more western camp (NOGAPS, UKMET) that bring Bill within 150 - 200 miles of Cape Cod. Both sets of models bring Bill ashore over the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia. Bill will be weakening rapidly as it makes landfall, and is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane if it hits Nova Scotia, or strong tropical storm if it hits Newfoundland.
Bill's big waves
Large swells from Bill will begin impacting the U.S. East coast from Florida to Maine beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. Seas will build to 5 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from central Florida northwards to South Carolina, and to 10 - 15 feet from North Carolina to Cape Cod. Near shore, waves will be about 40% less. This will cause a significant coastal erosion event along some portions of the coast. The latest run of the NOAA Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will reach 50 feet on Sunday. Since maximum wave height is typically about a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height (which is the average trough-to-crest height of the top 1/3 largest waves), a few huge waves near Bill's center may reach 95 feet high.
Possible impacts to New England
The current set of computer model runs predicts that the center of Bill will pass Cape Cod, Massachusetts Sunday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm-force sustained winds of 39 mph or greater currently extend out 185 miles to the west of Bill's center, so that if Bill maintains its current wind distribution, Cape Cod could see sustained winds of about 40 mph Sunday night if the models predicting a more westerly path are correct. However, Bill will not keep this same radius of winds. The hurricane will weaken considerably beginning Sunday morning, once the storm gets caught up in the approaching long wave trough. High wind shear of 40 - 65 knots due to strong southwesterly winds aloft will act to compress the hurricane in the east-west direction, keeping the hurricane's strongest winds away from Cape Cod. The highest winds are likely to be no more than 30 mph on Cape Cod from Bill, if the storm follows the track of the western camp of models nearest to the Massachusetts. A few rain squalls may affect coastal Massachusetts, but the main impact of Bill on New England is likely to be coastal erosion from high waves.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing scattered heavy rain showers to the Bahamas and Florida today. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. The only model calling for a new tropical cyclone to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days is the GFS model, which predicts development off the coast of Africa about 7 days from now.
Fifth warmest July on record globally; a cold July in the U.S.
The globe recorded its fifth warmest July since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NOAA rated the period January - July 2009 as the sixth warmest such period on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2009 as the 2nd warmest July on record, behind July of 1998. For the second month in a row, global ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in July were the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average. This broke the previous July record set in 1998. The record July SSTs were due in part to an ongoing El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific, which has substantially warmed a large stretch of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. As El Niño conditions mature during the coming months, near-record global ocean and land temperatures will probably continue. Now that El Niño conditions have been well-established for three months, the atmosphere has begun to heat up in response. It typically takes up to seven months for the atmosphere to heat up in response to ocean heating from an El Niño. This may explain why June of 2009, which independent assessments by NOAA, NASA, and the UK Hadley center agreed was the 2nd or 3rd warmest June on record at the surface, recorded only average satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere. In contrast, the July satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record, in agreement with the assessments that surface temperatures were the 2nd to 5th warmest on record.
Figure 3. Departure of temperature from average for July 2009. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
A cold July for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average July temperature of 23.1°C (73.5°F) was the coolest since 1994, and July temperatures were the 27th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and West Virginia experienced their coolest ever July. Kentucky, Missouri, Michigan, and Wisconsin recorded their second coolest July in history. A strong trough of low pressure parked itself over the eastern portion of the U.S. in July, funneling down plenty of cold air from Canada. In the western U.S., a ridge of high pressure dominated, bringing unusually hot conditions. Arizona recorded its 3rd warmest July on record, and Seattle, Washington recorded its hottest day in history on July 28, notching a 103°F reading. This was 3°F above the previous record set in 1994.
U.S. precipitation was near average in July, with the month ranking 40th wettest in the 115-year record. U.S. tornado activity was above average in July, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, no tornado deaths occurred in July.
At the end of July, 14% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. These extreme drought regions were exclusively in South and Central Texas.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
One thing I've learned from watching these over the years, the larger the wind field, the higher the waves and surge. Big storms like Katrina and Wilma impress me much more than an Andrew. Although, none of us with a few exceptions would want to be under the eyewall of an Andrew like storm. The smaller storms generally have less of an impact because of less damage from flooding but should never be discounted and always respected.
Good Morning!
Are you from NY or NE. I don't want to scare anyone either but sometimes you don't get enough warning time to evacuate. The NHC, in my experience, rarely give more than about 2 days notice. I don't think its incompitence. I think they do the best they can. Yes they get it wrong. Just last year by the time an evacuation was called for the upper TX coast all of the state resources were still in south TX where they had been mobilized to. So our locals were calling a voluntary on their own. They started filling school busses. The other resources did arrive. I think. But if you've seen the videos it was too late for the ones on the coast already.
All I can say is this...If you are on the coast LEAVE! Even if you live in a flood prone area you should leave. I don't know the shape of the coastline up there but here the water gets pushed up the rivers and lakes and bayous fllooding inland communities miles from the coast. If you live in a mobile home LEAVE! DO NOT RIDE IT OUT IN A MOBILE HOME! Another thing to take into consideration, look at your trees. Especially if you haven't had something strong enough to knock them over in a long time. If you have large trees that could potentially reach your house,no matter what its made of, leave. Trees crush houses. They can come through brick too. Secure all outside furniture, garbage cans, anything that can be blown through the air. Sometimes you have to make these decisions on your own. Before/without local officials. I know I'm forgetting a million things. Patrap has a preparedness blog I think. Just keep track of things and be prepared as wel a you can. I hope he goes out to sea.
Oh my. Now that I recognize. Trees and debris. Boy I hope Mother Nature forgets theres a Texas this season. :(
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST THU AUG 20 2009
...BILL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. A
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...
525 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 790 MILES
...1270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...
205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BILL COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS
LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BILL.
BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM. DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...NOAA BUOY 41044 REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN
WINDS OF 77 MPH...124 KM/HR...AND A PEAK GUST OF 92 MPH...
148 KM/HR...AS THE CENTER OF BILL PASSED ABOUT 75 MILES...
120 KM...TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO
BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.6N 60.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
From latest advisory..I had noticed a decrease in convection echoes on last sattelitte images
Could just be fluctuation that often takes place in large storms..still large wind field thoough!!
BILL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. A
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES...
525 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 790 MILES
...1270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...
I expect a WNW track today.
Had to go out for a while, or would already have posted something.
I noticed this in the 5 a.m. discusssion:
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BILL WILL
PROBABLY NOT TURN AS SHARPLY BETWEEN 72-96 HR AS IMPLIED BY THE
TRACK GRAPHIC...AND THUS IS LIKELY TO PASS CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND
THAN THE GRAPHIC WOULD SUGGEST.
this is a BIG implication as to the possible effect of Bill this weekend. This is NOT a weekend to be at the beach, in the water, on a boat in the northeast. I'm also going to be very interested in how tides play out in some of the bays along the NE coast. If Bill gets back to cat. 4 before it passes the NC / VA line, it could be pushing some serious water ahead of it.....
There's been a fair amount of confusion on the blog over the past few days regarding the troughs that influence Bill. Include me in that.
From what I've been able to understand, there were originally two influences, both of which were expected to contribute to a northwards movement.
One, originally at 50W, was a weakness in the Azores/Bermuda high due north of Bill. It obviously did have an influence as Bill's outer bands were elongated northwards towards it.
I expected Bill to move past it and come under the steering influence of the high pressure to the right, which was one of the reasons I was a 'westcaster'. That didn't happen. What did actually happen was that the weakness in the ridge moved westwards across the Atlantic maintaining its position due north of Bill, as if they were physically linked to each other.
That weakness in the ridge is now at 65W (see above), still due north of Bill and the high pressure area to the west of it, the Bermuda High, has also moved west and is now pushing into the eastern U.S.
Which begs the question, where is the original second trough that was previously over the Atlantic to the west of the Bermuda High? Its position seems now to be occupied by the weakness in the ridge and the talk now is of yet another trough coming out of the U.S. into the Atlantic to pull Bill north.
My head hurts. Any experts out there care to comment?
There IS a trough there, at about 70W.
Notice it's pretty narrow, and kinked towards Bermuda. By itself it's not enough to bring Bill north.
The trough that's due to turn Bill north is in the upper left hand corner of that WV image....
I too am confused - but here is my question:
Since that High is hanging in there and Bill is projected to come around the left side of it, wouldn't that now mean Bill will yet again head a bit more west? It seems the High is in no hurry to move east.
Bill will hit land between Virginia Beach and Connecticut.Probably as a Cat 2/3
If any evacs are necessary, which I doubt, it would be for the islands. Most of our immediate coastline is not filled with houses and condos just the beach. Plus our terrain is a little more hilly. I live about 2 miles from a major river that dumps into the Atlantic but you need to go up a huge hill to get to my house.
OK. Go Here. Underneath the picture, click the radio button beside Animation. Then select 30 from the dropdown menu beside image loop. Press the button that says "Animate image above" and let it load. Watch the movement of the dark lines from NW to E and SE. Those dark lines are the troughs that will influence Bill's movement over the next couple days.
Thanks Baha
Thanks for the image, Baha! It's much easier to understand what's going on and expected to happen when I can look at a picture.
Bill churns towards the northwest
Oh Good Morning to all!!!
Don't they mean NORTHEAST by late Friday?
Thanks, but I still don't see what the difference is between the trough you point out and the weakness in the ridge. So we're now dependent on another trough forming to pull Bill north? The one you're pointing out seems to be quite a long way away, so I'm assuming it has to build some more and move out into the Atlantic. Well, if it all pans out, the modellers can pat themselves on the back.
Wow! I missed that! I certainly hope they meant NNE!
He is ready to strenghten and give us a westernsurprise.
they meant what they said, NNW. Bill isnt expected to turn NNE until about day 3-4 when extratropical forces take hold
Ahhh...so that's where the scary part about it getting much closer to the coast than previously thought comes in.
(and to think all my friends back in NY thought I was crazy to move to FL....)
I would love a "don't speak with certainty rule", or a little button that can pop a disclaimer on someone.
I hope so....LOL.
But, the rain and cooler temps we were suppose to get in the NE yesterday, today, Friday and Saturday have all been moved to Saturday and Sunday. Don't know if that means the trough that is kicking Bill out is slower than expected.
Oeps,it is a guess offcourse.
But i was thinking that through would be late since thuesday.I am afraid the through will be to late to prevent landfall.
BILL was a timely reminder that we should have all hurricane preparations in place. we must thank our lucky stars in the islands ,for a hit from bill, we would have had a catastrophy
I agree,a hit there would have been a disaster.Luckely it did not happen.
Yeah, it's not like you can evacuate to a family member's house 500 miles inland. :)
right click on the image and then click on send image to. It should pull a link into outlook and then click on the link in outlook to copy. in WU click on image and paste the linki, hit enter and x out of the box. The image will show once you post. I hope this helps.
AMEN! I think I've found the first person to go on my list this year.
Good morning, y'all :)
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