Bill intensifies to Category 4; globe has 5th warmest July on record
Category 4 Hurricane Bill is now the the fourth strongest tropical cyclone to appear on the planet so far this year, and may grow even stronger. Visible and infrared satellite imagery continue to show an impressive, well-organized, hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow well-established on all sides except the west. On Bill's west side, upper-level winds from the west are creating a modest 10 knots of wind shear, which is giving the hurricane a bit of a squashed appearance there.
Wind shear is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 28.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content is at a maximum today, and will gradually decline over the next four days. Bill should be able to take advantage of these favorable conditions a remain a major hurricane the next three days.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
Water vapor satellite loops show a small "short-wave" trough of low pressure to the north-northwest of Bill, and this trough has turned Bill on a more northwesterly track over the past two days. Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the main impact of the hurricane on these islands will be high waves. The short wave trough (so called because it has a relatively small amplitude and wavelength) is not strong enough to turn Bill due north, and Bill is also expected to miss Bermuda. High waves and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph are the worst that Bermuda is likely to get from Bill.
Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Bill's eye zoomed in, taken from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.
An unusually strong "long wave" trough of low pressure (called long wave because of its large amplitude and wavelength) is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week. This trough will turn Bill to the north, and also bring high levels of wind shear in the 40 - 65 knot range on Sunday. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear. The models continue to be in two camps: an eastern camp (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF) that takes Bill 300 - 500 miles east of Cape Cod, and a more western camp (NOGAPS, UKMET) that bring Bill within 150 - 200 miles of Cape Cod. Both sets of models bring Bill ashore over the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia. Bill will be weakening rapidly as it makes landfall, and is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane if it hits Nova Scotia, or strong tropical storm if it hits Newfoundland.
Bill's big waves
Large swells from Bill will begin impacting the U.S. East coast from Florida to Maine beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. Seas will build to 5 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from central Florida northwards to South Carolina, and to 10 - 15 feet from North Carolina to Cape Cod. Near shore, waves will be about 40% less. This will cause a significant coastal erosion event along some portions of the coast. The latest run of the NOAA Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will reach 50 feet on Sunday. Since maximum wave height is typically about a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height (which is the average trough-to-crest height of the top 1/3 largest waves), a few huge waves near Bill's center may reach 95 feet high.
Possible impacts to New England
The current set of computer model runs predicts that the center of Bill will pass Cape Cod, Massachusetts Sunday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm-force sustained winds of 39 mph or greater currently extend out 185 miles to the west of Bill's center, so that if Bill maintains its current wind distribution, Cape Cod could see sustained winds of about 40 mph Sunday night if the models predicting a more westerly path are correct. However, Bill will not keep this same radius of winds. The hurricane will weaken considerably beginning Sunday morning, once the storm gets caught up in the approaching long wave trough. High wind shear of 40 - 65 knots due to strong southwesterly winds aloft will act to compress the hurricane in the east-west direction, keeping the hurricane's strongest winds away from Cape Cod. The highest winds are likely to be no more than 30 mph on Cape Cod from Bill, if the storm follows the track of the western camp of models nearest to the Massachusetts. A few rain squalls may affect coastal Massachusetts, but the main impact of Bill on New England is likely to be coastal erosion from high waves.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing scattered heavy rain showers to the Bahamas and Florida today. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. The only model calling for a new tropical cyclone to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days is the GFS model, which predicts development off the coast of Africa about 7 days from now.
Fifth warmest July on record globally; a cold July in the U.S.
The globe recorded its fifth warmest July since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NOAA rated the period January - July 2009 as the sixth warmest such period on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2009 as the 2nd warmest July on record, behind July of 1998. For the second month in a row, global ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in July were the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average. This broke the previous July record set in 1998. The record July SSTs were due in part to an ongoing El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific, which has substantially warmed a large stretch of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. As El Niño conditions mature during the coming months, near-record global ocean and land temperatures will probably continue. Now that El Niño conditions have been well-established for three months, the atmosphere has begun to heat up in response. It typically takes up to seven months for the atmosphere to heat up in response to ocean heating from an El Niño. This may explain why June of 2009, which independent assessments by NOAA, NASA, and the UK Hadley center agreed was the 2nd or 3rd warmest June on record at the surface, recorded only average satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere. In contrast, the July satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record, in agreement with the assessments that surface temperatures were the 2nd to 5th warmest on record.
Figure 3. Departure of temperature from average for July 2009. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
A cold July for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average July temperature of 23.1°C (73.5°F) was the coolest since 1994, and July temperatures were the 27th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and West Virginia experienced their coolest ever July. Kentucky, Missouri, Michigan, and Wisconsin recorded their second coolest July in history. A strong trough of low pressure parked itself over the eastern portion of the U.S. in July, funneling down plenty of cold air from Canada. In the western U.S., a ridge of high pressure dominated, bringing unusually hot conditions. Arizona recorded its 3rd warmest July on record, and Seattle, Washington recorded its hottest day in history on July 28, notching a 103°F reading. This was 3°F above the previous record set in 1994.
U.S. precipitation was near average in July, with the month ranking 40th wettest in the 115-year record. U.S. tornado activity was above average in July, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, no tornado deaths occurred in July.
At the end of July, 14% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. These extreme drought regions were exclusively in South and Central Texas.
I'll have an update Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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What took you so long?
Hurricane Bill 5 pm Advisory:
My Hurricane Bill Projected Path (as of 8 pm):
Tropical Depression Guillermo 5 pm Advisory:
Typhoon Vamca latest advisory:
You are one persistent SOG (son-of-a-gun)! You don't let the bashers stop you from doing what you've been doing (over and over again LOL!).
But I agree with everything you've said the last few days. Keep it up.
It was fun to read over the past few years; wishcasting a direct hit on New Orleans for the past 2 years with no science to back it up is one thing; suggesting that Bermuda is out of the woods when the science is suggesting that Bermuda is clearly at risk is unconscionable.
Thanks :)
It's important that I keep on reminding people that they should not let there guard down. I'm not a wishcaster, Bill is moving northwest and should continue to move northwest for the next 24-36 hours at the most. The faster Bill goes, the closer it gets to the East Coast. The trough will definitely recurve it, but timing is crucial as I've noted a few times this week.
Your track is unavailable, you might want to fix that.
Is this what you are looking for?
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
Hmmmmm, I saw something on a post earlier of this possibility. Maybe there is indeed some truth to it.
Compass graphic I have says 310 deg is between NWbW (NW by W) and NW
Hey BlueNoseDave, I am from Nova Scotia too, Porter's Lake on the skirts of Halifax. What's your thoughts on this. I wasn't here for Juan, but I own a home here now.
thank you...then its just my PC then...I've seen the same image for the past hour!!!! (And yes i did click refresh lol)
I don't always agree with you Reed, but I will stand up and say your NOT a "wishcaster." There is a big difference between how you present your opinions and views versus someone like, say, apocalypse (or however they spell it.)
South of Broad...just came out...there is no such place as "Carolina"
That's right. I'm thinking 305 is due NW. It's 315.
TCNA21 RJTD 200000
CCAA 20000 47644 VAMCO(0910) 13186 11574 12244 260// 93504=
0:00 AM UTC August 20
TY VAMCO (0910)
18.6N 157.4E
Dvorak Intensity: T6.0
---
Same Dvorak Intensity as Bill now, I believe
Very nice! I'm quite proud of you...
Here in the northern part of PR things are pretty quiet. We are having occasional showers but that's about it. Haven't seen the wave action though.
Thanks, I really do try my best to get it right. Besides, i'm only 20 and a 1/2 years old :p
What if you owned homes in both? Would you not then be from Carolina? LoL
I am going to have to get you a T-shirt that says something like "there is no, are no Carolinas!!"
Here in the northern part of PR things are pretty quiet. We are having occasional showers but that's about it. Haven't seen the wave action though.
many people do...and, no...ya still have to pick one...
Linda...I can pose in it...wet...to raise funds for Portlight!
one thing that concerns me about the storm's potential impact onto Canada is the high rate of speed that Bill will be moving because of the possible north/south orientation of the trough. It could be possible, depending on the exact orientation of the trough, that Bill may be moving at a high rate of speed (approx. 50 mph plus as it approaches Canada), meaning that the amount of time over the much cooler waters of the north Atlantic may only be a few hours.
I am not 'coastal' but I am 'eastern' NC- quite close to Greenville. At this point I am not worried, but am aware that things can change overnight.
We are 80% prepared. Nothing a quick trip to walmart and run around the yard picking up wouldn't remedy. Although if Bill 'eyed' us down... I would go visit the pretty mountains for the duration of Bills stay! I was in Raleigh through Fran, and it was the scariest thing EVER. Pitch black, trees cracking all around.. stars twinkling as the eye passed over knowing good and well all hell was going to break lose again... thanks but no thanks!
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