Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Bill! Bill! I mean Bill!!!
I slept through the first one and wrote of my car (big heavy BMW 733i) in the second, as a tree crashed down right in front of me!
who's Bob, do you mean Bill?
An storm with track all over water.
(in other words, a nice storm that provides nice snapshots and no problems).
I see the models have been holding true to their forecast of re-curving Bill to some extent. It looks like the northern maritime region may have to pay close attention however. No amount of west-casting will change this no matter how much people want to have some “excitement” with a storm approaching the US east coast. The models still seem to be in fairly good agreement with the general north-west track and then a gradual turn to the northeast. The islands should still monitor the system as any deviation south of the forecast track will bring it closer, sending in heavier surf along the coastlines, but as of right now the Antilles need not worry as the system is forecast to stay well clear the islands.
There is no "verification model". The page is titled "model verification". In other words, it means it is comparing model predictions to what actually happened.
Yes, I believe you have TY! Do you know the translation of trough...is it "vaguada"? TYVM!
No it didn't. Right on NHC track. Plot the tropical points. If anything, its a hair north of where is should be. The new advisory will just be an update of the one at 5 PM. Just cosmetic changes as they call it.
First post on this blog. I am a long time weather enthusiast, and have been fascinated by hurricanes since riding out Betsy in New Orleans as a kid. Used to even chase hurricanes before work and family dictated otherwise.
I enjoy reading this blog. Quite a few knowledgeable people here. More than a few that are clueless LOL, but entertaining nonetheless.
Though I have long since moved from the Gulf Coast, I still follow storms closely. I need to keep up with particularly GOM storms, since whenever there is a threat, friends and family from back home ring my phone off the hook for storm info LOL.
For what it's worth, GOM residents should keep a close eye on Ana's remnants. In particular, the area currently moving wnw between Haiti and eastern Cuba. This is where what is left of Ana's low level circulation is. Looks to me, it will be moving just south of eastern Cuba today, and by DMAX will be over open water around 21N and 75W. This feature will be slowing down considerably beyond 75W, and I fear could begin to develop rather quickly tomorrow.
Yeah I remember hearing Montserrat got flooded as well. Everyone wrote Omar off because he was headed away from us so I'm just hoping everyone stays vigilant of Bill. We are just so vulnerable on these little land masses.
Bob is the name I call Bill if I mess up Bill's name.
Hi
I think you are talking of the famed October storm. I was actually down south during it - in Bishop Stortford (think that's how it is spelt). I distinctly remember seeing a window get blown out of a building and the Company I was visiting reporting that a member of staff had died of a heart attack whilst trying to walk against the wind. It was a rough old day!
University of Pyongyang is decent but very difficult to get into to.
Literally from English, a trough is what animals eat from, so it is "comedero"...but for weather it is more like a trough in the ground, or a ditch, so maybe "depresion (en el seulo)" is better...?
Yeah, I remember quite a few people telling me not to worry about Omar..to far away. I will stay watchful of Bill until he is well past. No surprises here..I have everything ready, just need to put up shutters.
How does one sleep through such a storm? When Wilma passed through FT Lauderdale here, I was sticking my head through a slit and mesmermized by the awsome power. Do not care to experience another!!!!
Very good analysis.. I've always stated on here that the Northeastern States shouldn't let there guard down. Also the storm did another jog the the west, but mainly it's moving WNW.
Think it could be on to watch or just fizzle?
Well, the mets here talk about "vaguadas" that are systems that travel like counterclockwise.
Oh oh where's Sluggo?
Ty for the update StormW.
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