Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2009/BILL.shtml?
Simply replace 2009 with the year and BILL with the storm... then click graphic archives if you wan to see the images. Enjoy!
3047. LongGlassTube 10:17 PM EDT on August 17, 2009
Back in the days of paper charts we would do our own XTRAP using a ruler to pencil in a dotted line of travel. Generally speaking once the XTRAP is North of your position you are in the clear. If XTRAP is on you just prior to landfall well, there you are.
I agree. I think Bill will be N of it's next TFP
I know they were taking data out ahead of the storm...but did they actually get a vortex and fly through the center?...
It looks like IF it does develop, it would most likely a Florida storm somewhere around the big bend.
Link
It was never a hurricane. It originated in the Bay of Biscay, off the west coast of France. It was a very strong gale with hurricane force winds.
that Bermuda High seems to be ridging toward the Carolinas? right?
what nice quikscat of Bill
Taz, go back and look at the blog archives. It had already become clear that Ike would not be a fish storm long before it got to the Gulf. The only debate was whether it would hit the Bahamas and Florida, or Cuba and then somewhere in the Gulf.
Besides, this is really weak logic...if you think Bill is going to turn west and hit the US, make an argument based on Bill. Or, if you want to base an argument on Ike, show us how Ike was similar to Bill and the same error is possible. If you can't do that, it's just wild speculation.
Hey, Grothar here. Did you get a chance to read my response which would have been #4228. Would be interested in your comment. Where are you in Scotland. I stayed in Edinburgh on Esselmont Road between Mayfield and Craig Miller Rd.
Thanks for the link!
I have the impression it moves NW. The circulation got rid of the big outflows in the last hours and seems more compact. Currently it seems to progress to a more circular appearance.
I think the one closest to Bill will not do well. But the next one certainly has a chance.
As far as progression, it seems we're in a pattern of troughs that will keep most of these systems that develop in the Atlantic out to sea.
The weak waves will likely not get picked up by the troughs so there may eventually be some caribbean storms.
Wow! Bill's eye is huge!
and Ike was never forecast to be a fish storm. never.
do a google search.
Just in case you can't see the replies, 4253 and 4326.
What kind of meteorology interests you? Weather forecasting? Model development and theoretical studies? Broadcast, Military? Lots of different paths and many schoools specialize.
According to purple in the bottom right hand corner 9:09 am this morning, just little over an hour ago.
Just got on, Has any info come in from HH yet.
Good morning everyone! Can someone please help me understand why they think there will be a NW movement on Bill? To my untrained eye Bill has been moving W WNW. But, what is supposed to pick Bill more to a NW movement? That thing so far from him near Bermuda? What about the high right on top of Bill. Help please.
Trust me, WE ARE
3047. LongGlassTube 10:17 PM EDT on August 17, 2009
Back in the days of paper charts we would do our own XTRAP using a ruler to pencil in a dotted line of travel. Generally speaking once the XTRAP is North of your position you are in the clear. If XTRAP is on you just prior to landfall well, there you are.
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