Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Our local weather crew has totally written it off with no chance of redevelopment.
It's already beyond those coordinates.
I'm going to check in an hour for the NHC coordinates and see if it matches up.
sorry to waste your time!
I know what you mean Orca, I have tried to use that and it slows my super fast pc down alot
I knew what you meant.
wheres the link...
bc ive seen the nhc change pressure and wind within 30 min before and after an official update.
I do remember it, but it was the south of England that bore the brunt of it. It passed us by here in Scotland.
It happened when the trees were still in foliage, so there was a huge amount of trees down, as the leaves acted like a sail. The village of Sevenoaks, in Kent, named for its ancient oaks that had stood for centuries, was reduced to (I think) two oaks.
The BBC weatherman said before the storm arrived that it wouldn't amount to much. Not his fault, I know, but he was ridiculed about it for years.
The storm originated in the Bay of Biscay, off France, and was not a tropical system. I've never actually read up on the reason for its ferocity.
One question. Has any hurricane skipped that famous trough or high pressure before?
I don't like this storm and with Andrew's anniversary around the corner it's not helping..I know plenty of times the NHC and the models have been wrong before.
Thank you.
here is the Link: Link
I'm sure they have...but it's 99.9% certain Florida is in the clear, up to both NC/SC.
Bermuda is a different story.
Not any serious ones on Network,no one here is that crazy.
Hey Chuck...my son and his wife live in Navarre. Beautiful place! The gulf water there is amazing.
At this point, I'd be more worried about human life and not vegetation. Not trying to offend you, but this could be pretty bad up your way.
I believe your reference to the Weather man was Michael Fish, if I remembert correctly. He got a poor rap, I believe his quote of "not worrying about the storm was concerning another area. Please correct me if I am wrong!!
The only way a Hurricane passes a trough is if the trough is weak and far to the north.. A stationary front would turn a Hurricane north, but not curve it.
Does yah tink Billy boy may be goin fishin? I doesn't tink so dar by ... batting down da hatches!
dude...thats just the updates on that site...hurricanes pressure and winds can rise and drop dramatically in an hours time...why do you think the nhc would give out false or old info? especially after they start flying planes out today?
HUM not sure really what your question is but, yes a hurricane can miss a trough if High Pressure block it ......STorms travel around High Pressure but, follow the least resistance which is a trough on the sides of High Pressure.
Odd, wouldn't that force Bill on a more western path? I suppose unless the trough was to dive south quickly enough to eat away at the elongated portion of the high.
Bill right on the TFP's and gaining latitude
I live about 30 minutes North, but that's the beach of my choice in the panhandle
how many times did you all think Andrew was going to be a fish ??? or may be IKE ???
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2009 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 15:55:24 N Lon : 50:36:12 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.9mb/117.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 5.5 5.5
Raw T just dropped .6, down from 6.1 could it mean slight weakening or EWRC perhaps?
Hurricane Bill
Max Wind: 105 mph
Pressure: 963 mb
Its all about timing
18/1145 UTC 15.7N 50.2W T5.0/5.0 BILL
its the link you gave....so how is it not right?....dude....
Man...I see why. I was up there in January and as I drove east one day over a large bridge, I could not beleive how blue & clear the water was. Looked like the Bahamas!
PanhandleChuck asked the same question. It would appear that condtions are favorable for something to develop. There is abundant moisture off the African coast and the High is expected to stay strong. However, wind sheer may inhibit it for a few days. It is probabaly too early to call this one. It does have a moderate spin to it. So let us wait until Bill gets out of the way and we can all start worrying about the new. Exciting in a way isn't it?
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