Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Can I ask a question? Are you making an attempt to be a kindler/Gentler Drak? I have enjoyed your dry humor/sarcasm over the last couple of seasons.... Seems as if you are making a concerted effort to be nicer. :) Sorry if i jumped in like a troll..been a member for over 4 years and still love it...
Anas Track slightly moved east up the west coast of fl SFWMD
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169358:3194_21178594:3194_21206144:319 4_21206152&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
It's a single operational model. I'm testing out this new upgrade.
Admin did some house cleaning apparently.
I just do me. It's either you like it or you don't.
I saw that looking at the 850mb vort maximum
and interestingly enough... It has to do with Guirerrmo out in the EPAC and the remainders of Claudette.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/IpswichWeatherCenter/comment.html?entrynum=23
Anyway - Any news on damages yet?
AS OF 2 AM MON...VERY LIMITED CVRG OF CONVECTION EXPECTED THU
INTO FRI AS UPR RDG CONTS OVER THE AREA. KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY
DURING AFTN ASSOC WITH INLAND TRF AND SEA BRZ. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW SAT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CROSS EARLY
SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHC POPS FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF FRONT...LOWERED POPS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS FRONT CROSSES.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE REGION LATE SAT AND SUN. OTHER THAN LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND
ASSOCIATED SURF/RIP CURRENT THREATS ALONG THE CST...NOT EXPECTING
ANY OTHER IMPACTS GIVEN THIS TRACK...PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 9 AM MON...VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND 1-3 FOOT SEAS ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WITH WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3 FEET OR LESS. WILL FORECAST THE
RARE VARIABLE WINDS ON THE SOUNDS AND NORTHERN WATERS TODAY. FLOW
BECOMES SW TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOCAL SWAN
MODEL AGAIN INITIALIZED BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND PERIODS WELL AND
FOLLOWED IN THE SHORT TERM.
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY (14 TO 16 SECONDS) AND BUILDING SATURDAY (16 TO 20 SEC) IN
ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS ANA AND BILL NOW IN THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC. WAVEWATCH BUILDS COMBINED SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STATUS BY SATURDAY...WHICH IS BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED RIP CURRENT
THREAT WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.-- End Changed Discussion --
Once the NHC starts issuing forecasts, SHIPS uses the NHC track.
Side note: watched a couple specials on TWC during Cane week and caught the one about Camille. Something that really stood out and I hadn't heard before was a Navy ship's log during Camille. It was caught in the middle of the storm and I think it was a battle ship or some other huge vessel. The log said: "Anemometer broke at 200 knots." Can you imagine that? 200 freakin' knots?!?!?! WOW!
its an eye wall restructuring, most hurricanes do that at this part of there life
Just do better than CLP5 and you will be judged "skillful".
who knows
The combination of favorable climatology, along with the model support, makes me believe Bill really is staying east of the U.S. Still a long way to go, though.
Lol... I can do better than CLP5.
Nah...It will be nothing more than an afternoon thunderstorm with a light breeze! RIP Ana!
That is crucial in terms of the strength of Ana, since it appears that that center could become the dominant center
NOUS42 KNHC 171545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON 17 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-081
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 18/1800Z,19/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0402A ANA
C. 18/1500Z
D. 21.5N 75.0W
E. 18/1700Z TO 19/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 19/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0502A ANA
C. 19/0200Z
D. 23.0N 78.0W
E. 19/0500Z TO 19/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
0N ANA BEGINNING AT 19/1500Z. A FIX AT 19/1800Z
AND 20/0600Z ON HURRICANE BILL.
3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL BEGIN FLYING 5 RESEARCH MISSIONS
IN A ROW ON HURRICANE BILL AT 18/0800Z WITH THE P-3
AND G-IV. TAKEOFFS WILL BE EVERY 12 HOURS.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP/SEF
To a very low degree, not nearly as bad as it was. I believe we are down for our rainy season which is not good for the up coming dry season.
A couple hours. I'll post obs. like I did above, but with all the HH observations overlayed
it might happen.. looking better on radar.. who knows?
I was being sarcastic.
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