Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
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The TV Show (title still secret) is going to not be like "the experience series" I made last year. They'll each be 10-minutes long and feature imagery, radar, interviews and of course the live footage we shoot.
I'll just ask you a few questions, mainly concerning your experiences in past storms, why you like Wunderground over other outlets, and maybe some fun-type questions like "What do you think of people that chase after hurricanes."
The TV show is going to be heavy on Wunderground information, including "main blog" entries...it should be a really cool show once it's in the can.
I hope to produce 12-15 10-minute shows in this 2009 series with some hope that it leads to a new series on the Discovery / Science / NGC channels.
Yeah, alot has to play out in the next 24-36 hours. We'll know for sure by then.
Yes.
That's a really good question. My knee-jerk intuition would be yes.
The weather guys up here aren't that concerned about Bill anyway. You are better off going to Bermuda.
I've got the luxury of time on my side to make a final decision. It's great not to feel rushed about anything!
I've been able to configure my gear for air-travel nicely. I'm going to miss my portable power supplies, but for the most part, power is the only real important thing I'm leaving behind.
I cannot imagine being in Bermuda on Friday. No cell-phone. No live webcam. And I know not a soul. I'll also be on a fiercely tight budget!
I'll literally be walking the streets with a backpack and a rolling suitcase in a foreign country...homeless (unless I succumb and decide to spring for a hotel room.)
oh so are you saying it is moving faster than they anticipated?
It will also hinge on how far south Bill tracks. Last time I looked the bottom of his eye was on the 15 degrees north line. He's not coming very far north at all and I don't see how he can with the Bermuda High pressing down on him. Ana went west as a result of that pressure influence and I don't see why Bill should do otherwise. So, even if a strong trough does build and influences his direction, he could be too far south and west to recurve. Bill's a big boy, with lots of momentum.
I guess if you are going to be camping, Bermuda would be a nice place to be.
Good luck with your research/filming.
No. I'm just saying what's left of Ana. Surge of moisture.
It sure does look that way. I squinted real hard and I think it said 1022 UTC. Does that sound right?
Got it thanks.
ADT shows 102 knts which would be 115 mph getting closer to 120 mph winds
Raw numbers are around 120 knts which would be 140 mph winds
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2009 Time : 104500 UTC
Lat : 15:34:27 N Lon : 50:09:09 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 955.4mb/109.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.8 6.1 6.4
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km
Center Temp : +14.8C Cloud Region Temp : -67.4C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
WOW 110 knts
There's not much left of the old TD Ana, just some clusters of clouds/showers throughout the Bahamas and over the Barahona peninsula of Haiti. We'll see if it tries to reorganize somewhere, but at this point it could eventually get out into the Gulf of Mexico.
Except for Bill, it's quieted down some now, with the historical peak of the season still three to four weeks away.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 810 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR HAITI
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF REGENERATION AT THIS TIME AND THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
.....................
if u look closely its more like wsw
12Z Runs...assuming a G-IV research plane did in fact flew @2AM today.
What is really cool is to run through the steps on the models and observe how the bidged highs start to react to the first trough from yesterday and then the second.
Looking at the water vapor it appears that the more easterly high has already started to shift east and elongate which following the models should make room for the Bermuda high to do the same and get the heck out of the way.
Hoping it all continues and is on time.
RN
Yep... the system as a whole, the TROF of low pressure, is moving WNW/NW at about 20mphs, but it should start to slow down over the next day or so. Once the vorticity gets away from Cuba, i would be interested in seeing if she will be able to redevelop the low-level/surface circulation. Unlikely, but it is something to watch and we are expecting more rain from the remains of Ana than we did from Claudette (barely got any), here in Tallahassee.
Don't know exactly where Bill would be on these maps but thats a lot of heat potential.
Plane is out there now.
Sounds like more of the same - sticky with rain at times? Ana's rag-tag remnants will blow through some time over the weekend? Sorry to bother - was up late last night with work and have to get on it this morning, too.
Perfect...
Bill looking beefy today. Let's hope the troughs do their work and the people of Bermuda can withstand a pounding.
Something is leaving Cape Verde.
It's August 18th.
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