Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Or NHC has some hurricane lovers in the bisness.... not that I am......
:D :D :D :D
(NOT trying to attack your post or anything, just stating the forecast)
The High is forecast to erode towards the west, allowing Bill to move along the eastern side of the eroding ridge, in between the two highs over the northeastern Atlantic.
There's a weakness currently between the two highs that is forecast to erode the eastern side of the western ridge, allowing Bill to turn NW and then N.
Yep. :)
Hurricanman: This is the explanation for why Bill is moving the way he is moving.^^^^^
I also forgot to throw in there the reason he won't move directly towards the weakness is because of that additional high pressure area to the weakness' east. That should build west when the weakness erodes the western ridge towards the east, allowing Bill only a general NW and then N motion...
But if he's being pulled toward the ridge to the left how can he go north when the flow around the high is clockwise? O I'm back. lol
GRRRR! Oh well, at least the Layer Mean Wind Analyses show the strength of the High pressure areas and the weakness, unlike TWC's graphic. Anyways, there it is...^ ^ ^
>.<
Because the weakness will erode it enough towards the west that He won't be directly affected by that ridge. In essence, he will be "cushioned" by the weakness, but still forced slightly westward by the eastern ridge that will be moving westward behind the weakness.
The eastern edge of the western high is going to erode. Let's get that part of the forecast straight!!! (See the Layer Mean Wind Analyses graphics I posted that I painted on with ms paint, or the simple Weather Channel's image that I found later explaining it more simply) Lol! :)
Don't mean to question your post either but, i do believe you have it wrong. The Western edge of the Bermuda high erodes allowing Bill to go up the Western edge as i Posted....
Okay. Western Ridge erodes in part due to the weakness currently between the ridges, but also because of a longwave trough exiting the U.S. in about 2-3 days. That high will be gone, and then natural forces (which I explained about angular momentum and the conservation of such momentum causing a Hurricane to move polewards and accelerate (essentially, recurvature)) will help Bill move N and eventually NE. The only questions that remain are: How strong with the longwave trough be? How effective will the weakness be? (I.E. How quickly will the western ridge erode) How strong and how far west will the eastern ridge move once the weakness erodes the western ridge?
Bill should already be moving between the ridges prior to the western ridge becoming fully eroded, it is then that the longwave trough will appear and give Bill a "push" northwards and eventually northeastward. All of this is going to happen, there is no doubt. The only questions that remain are the magnitude of each of these forces. That, and only that, is what will determine when Bill will turn NW, N, and then NE..
THATS what I thought! And I get that the weakness is pulling him north right now. So he will be far enough north to round the western edge of the high being eroded by the trough coming off the coast later. My head hurts. ;)
That's because the western edge is already eroded.. Lol.. See the very simple and meteorologically accurate Weather Channel's graphic. It explains it ALL very simply. Bill moves between the two highs. The eastern ridge builds westward.
Thats a future map your looking at.....not the current one in place.....LOL
OK, enough jargon and coffe, slow it down a tad on the expertise being submitted with your posts. We all get the fact Bill will curve, just tone it down on a few decibals
Bill is rounding the western side of the eastern ridge that builds in after the western ridge has eroded. This is what the models forecast, this is what the NHC forecasts, this is what Tim Ballisty (The meteorologist who made that WC graphic) forecasts. I don't see where we are misunderstanding each other here. I think we both know what is happening but are explaining it in different terms. When that western ridge "erodes" it essentially will disappear on those model runs you are posting, either just in a *poof* sort of way, or it will appear to be carried off by a trough. Which in this case is that longwave trough that will be exiting the U.S. coast in 2-3 days. Thus, Bill rounds the western edge of the eastern high, as the weakness initiates the erosion of the western ridge, and the longwave trough completes it.
Lol. Don't come down on him for it. He was trying to help those of us who didn't "get" it. Myself being particulary unscientific of mind. :) And I for one appreciate and applaud his patience.
Am I shouting? I don't think I am. Please explain further what you mean.
Ok LOOK at this loop.....you can see for yourself what i stated...If you look you can see the weakness to the North that is currently in place that Bill feels then the Western edge of the Bermuda High erodes allowing Bill to go up the Western side of the Bermuda High...Sorry for the misunderstanding.
I agree we may disagree here but, no harm of anger intended from here...:)
Bill could potentially be more powerful than Fabian was if it hits Bermuda.
RELEASE YOUR HATE AND YOUR ANGER!!!!
Nice map though, you and theu are really experienced to do exactly the same thing good job!
hehe
this has to be the most used phrase in the last few days! :)
Right!!! That's it. You notice where there are two separate highs, though? This model run doesn't clearly show it like the current Layer Mean Wind Analyses do, but there are in fact two separate highs. Some other models show it better, but this is why models are just that- models. They tend to blur some of the atmospheric components and focus more directly on the track of the system. Anyways, you can see the western high being eroded and carried away by that longwave trough, which then essentially "opens up" the western portion of the northeast atlantic for Bill to be pulled poleward through. We both were seeing the same thing, it's just that this model blurs the fact that there are actually two highs:
That is from 2AM ^ ^ ^ ^
Anyways, that's just a forecasting misunderstanding you get with using to separate sources for your initial data!!! :)
Thanks for your insight TampaSpin, It's always valued no matter what you may think!!!
I think we was both saying the same thing with different wording...LOL....its all good.
I do too, LOL.
Thank you both for clarifying your points it answered some questions I had about the highs..
Either way you look at it Bermuda is in for a bad time I'm afraid..
*Edit*
Lol I see you both said the same thing what I posted sorry I am a little slow the board eat my post had to redo it..
Thanks Tampa! Yeah it is kind of a pain, Lol! That's why I was kicking myself when I saw that TWC had a very simple graphic explaining the same thing on their website.. >.<
I'm glad you found a part of the model run that showed Bill rounding that ridge, though, because that was a question many had and I think that illustration clearly shows how Bill will be forced NW and N.
Water Vapor link
i know penmanship on a PC greatly depends on the quality of the mouse, thou
Link
still has a-ways to go. the farther out, the more unpredictable things get.
id check the vorticity maps but i dont know how to use that. *hint* *hint*
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