Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I don't see what would take him north in time to miss everywhere (land) before it recurves. And I'm a little confused on the first link it shows a front washing out and going north n the middle of the week. Then a front barely on the east coast Saturday. Is that more or less where the trough is? On the second link a graphic of where bill supposed to be Sat. So, what will make him climb before the trough?
Link
Link
You know if those go any more west, we'll see Obamas carpentry skills come out when he puts up plywood on the white house. :) Jk.
http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/viewsingleimage.html?mode=singleimage&handle=StormW&number=12
I have a second site I use for cloud data when it does that... its happened before.
I can't find the link, but doa google search for "Global Cloud cover"
Night all, have fun and play safe
Its sad to know that people didn't leave for Ike remembering Rita.. Ike ended up being so much worse than Rita.
hmph!
:/
comments, thoughts
Yes SerialTeg. At least for me your posts have been hidden, even though I have had it on "Show All" all the time. And I think this is the first time I've been able to quote you. Dunno why, you are the only one I've had that problem with.
Figured this would be a good time for my first post.
Have been lurking for about four months now and have learned alot.
Bloggers such as Drakoen, IKE, StormW, Weather456, extreme236, Stormchaser2007, Patrap, and others are much appreciated.
Keep it up.
Well Ike hit a more populated area than Rita. Including the area Rita hit. But they were both nightmares. Rita did to SW LA what Ike did to SE TX and SW LA. But you are right about the Ike evacuation. The roads were so empty it was eerie. We were kinda stunned actually. Then we were sad because we knew what those empty roads meant. :(
>:(
maybe thats one of the reasons i have to ask stuff quite a few times before anyone cares to answer...
i would love to see a revamp of this message board.
I'm NOT trying to attack your post, okay? Let's get that thought out of the way right now. However, you posted the wrong steering layer.. Bill's intensity requires the 300-850MB steering layer.
well ive cried FISH since sunday, but maybe ill have to eat CROW
actually i laughed as a crow passed real close to me this morning @ campus. coincidence? i think not!
:)
i just hope that high doesn't move too far to the right, too quickly, or we'll have a face-to-face with a pissed off cane.
Yeah. I've not visited this blog in two days because of this. Its ridiculous. Who knew weather was such a testy subject
Lol, indeed it is. I just try my best to steer clear of the arguments and use disclaimers to let people know that I'm NOT trying to jump down anyone's throat if I correct someone.. I'm just trying to help keep the blog accurate and less-comprised of wishcasts, misconceptions, etc..
As for Bill's steering layer, here it is:
thank you for pointing that out!
Anytime! Here's the link:
CIMSS Layer Mean Wind Analyses
ok ok i see what you mean ... thunder PR the site is here, the images you need to watch are the ones that go according to the millibars on the storm. each image on the page has a millibar rating below its link. am i right hurricanefcast?
well, what do you think
is that the so-talked about weakness?
if that thing on the left gets on top of bill watch out?
Morning Korthie! Your thoughts on Bill today?
True, if you view them as they are they do show a western motion. However, that strong subtropical ridge is forecast to erode, allowing Bill to turn to a more NW motion, and eventually within 2-3 days, a trough exiting the U.S. coast is forecast to interact with Bill wherein he should be lifted to a more Northerly track before being taken towards the Northeast.
lets see what happens, i think people would actually like that after ana's fiasco... all the info i was taking in from ana before coming to PR was that we were gonna feel up to 50mph winds... and even worse because she was coming from the south. all ponce felt was a nice template day with dark clouds and some mr. beldevere showers.
I think the NHC forecast track is a reasonable one. I'm still with the recurvature crowd, though I am seeing a possibility that Bill could move much further west than initially thought prior to recurvature. East Coast needs to really watch this.
Intensity wise, I think the GFDL is too aggressive (though it typically is, so no surprise there), and I think the NHC also has the intensity spot on, based on the latest 200 mb wind forecast. However, I am slightly higher than the NHC, and forecast a low-end Category 4.
Absolutely, you want to view the layer of which the pressure of the system matches. Right now Bill has a minimum central pressure of 967, therefore you want to view the layer (300-850mb) that matches the Tropical Cyclone's MSLP(Mean Sea Level Pressure) range, which is 950-969.
i thought the erosion was already happening just to the right of the ridge, practically on top of bill. at least i believe nhc has been calling it out on past advisories "a weakness in 50W" then "53W in the ridge" something of that nature
the nhc says it'll be a day at least until the real nw turn hits i believe
How long have you been on here? I've been here since the '06 season. Most newer people don't seem to really have a good grasp on meteorology, especially the youger folks, but you seem to know your stuff. Going to school for it?
ECMWF also nailed Bill's recurvature even when most of the other reliable models were initially very tightly clustered on a WNW path.
Something to watch, to be sure.
He wouldn't "miss" it, but I suppose you could say it is possible that the weakness may not be as strong as forecast, and it could not affect him as much as forecast, leading to a more westerly track. However, that is just in the *possible* realm, not the *likely* realm. Let's remember that before we predict something outlandish and unlikely. It is still likely that Bill will remain off the U.S. coastline, although it does appear as it will be closer than originally forecast. Essentially: stay tuned. We'll know more tomorrow night.
i guess thats why they always mention the "outlier model to the west" for all these past advisories...
each year, i learn more about this stuff. crazy about going to met school in january (colegio mayaguez)!
I agree 100%, I don't think it'll encounter high enough ocean heat content to ever become a 5, but a low 4 seems completely reasonable.
Well I've been around since 06' and have had a couple of different screen names, of which I don't remember my original, lol! I do major in meteorology, and I currently attend the University of Miami. I'm a 3rd-year student.
Agreed. However, in the unlikely (read: very unlikely) event that it makes it into the vicinity of Florida, and traverses the very warm Gulf Stream, the longwave trough could conceivably generate a poleward outflow channel by ventilating the northern side of the circulation, possibly allowing rapid intensification, and then a high end Category 4, or even a weak Category 5, would be possible.
That is just speculation on my part though, but trough interactions have been known to rapidly intensify hurricanes (i.e. Charley).
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