Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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thank you
its at 14.8N, and its almost to 48 W
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. BILL IS FORECAST TO GROW A LITTLE MORE IN
SIZE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
GFS SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY BECOME EVEN LARGER THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST.
This is why the Leewards might need that warning/watch. A larger Bill with a turn along the western edge of that envelope could mean at least TS conditions sustained in Antigua and Barbuda, if nowhere else.
Rap this puppy up? Do I have to get my rhymes out? Bill, Bill, he ain't got the will... to hit the east coast cuz the east coast is ill. Ana was bananas and Claudette was just wet. 2009, represent.
On the whole, I like where the models are going with Bill today, because the trend is towards a recurve... I see the UKMET has pretty much lined up with the consensus. This is good because I don't want anybody to get hit by this puppy, so Go, Trough, Go! Take him out to sea!
Having said that, I'm looking for for a MAJOR recurve, because I'm concerned for the folks in Bermuda, and I'm also concerned for Gawds Country up here. The CMC long-range is particularly gut-wrenching, showing a near direct-hit here in Yarmouth. Granted, it's a long way out, and it would be extra-tropical when and if it gets here, but we can do without the grief of a major rain and wind event. I was in the Annapolis Valley today (32 degrees C, very humid). There's a very fine corn crop growing, which could get steamrollered by ex-Bill.
So, basically, any movement NW or NNW, and preferably NNE, works for me. I'm sure you all agree. Meanwhile, we watch and wait...
Well that's kind of unfair, because a fish storm from what I hear doesn't affect land and Bermuda still has people there and also Canada has people in the Maritimes. If it truly was a fish storm no land would be affected correct? So the whole fish term isn't used properly then.
No, not unless it came in from the SE, and made landfall. If Bill even came near it would be moving NE or NNE, which would push all the water up towards the Nova Scotia area due to the counter-clockwise rotation of the storm.
Mr.Bill's Hurricane.
Doesn't get any more appropriate than now, I assume.
Don't be hatin bro! :)
What say the WU blog?
i'd say it's past 48 considering the NHC put the center at 48.3
i really want to visit nova scotia one day.
I say we watch what happens in half an hour to an hour to this image:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&ti me=
If the high looks stronger to BILL's west, then ...
...Wow. You know what? Brownie points for creativity.
pshh thats even worse, south of 15 N and nearing 49W
I feel as though Bill has by passed the first weakness forecasted to turn him more Northwesterly because he was not as deep as some of the models forecasted him to be at this point of time...he was only in the 400 mb level and the trough is in the 200 mb upper levels and thus did not have an affect on him or very little affect...
I also see the Bermuda high is holding strong which is causing the slow down and the western movement....Now the next trough looks more potent and will weaken the western side of the bermuda high causing a weakness...at this point Bill should be deep and strong enough to take this weakness and ride it up the coast and out to sea....
I do believe the Northern Antilles could get a close call...but i do believe it will eventually go out to sea...Now how close will it get to the east coast is the question...with the current trend all i can say is keep two eyes on it now instead of one if you on the east coast
Link
This is the only info I have found, and it appears that there is conflicting info on the February 2006 system, which is why I am skeptical. Just curious is all, as I have an interest in the S. Atlantic for tropical systems.
this will be your answer:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm6&zoom=&ti me=
lets wait until it updates
Is Anna still dead?
Its because the NHC doesn't take that piece of information into its forecast it seems
Link
Its an illusion caused by the pull of the weakness off to his northeast
yea thats eye wall reconstruction
What do you want, another Katrina "BANG"?,,,Let the season take its way. who knows! It may have something for your state.....;
I was going to log-off....but I'll call you crazy....lol....j/k
.
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time for this bandito to have a glass of milk and go to sleep.
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