Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yes South Louisiana born and raised
Yup.. unpredictable and showing up unannounced. :P
out of curiousity...i was wondering if you realized that they reset the forecast point overlays every advisory...which they just did less than 30 min ago...so it will be right on...look at it in about 2 hours and see where it is in reference to the next point...
bill has stayed south of the last few points and theyve had to reset and re-adj them at the last 2 advisories...
Not soon enough? :)
Im sorry but with every advisory the track just keeps getting closer and closer to NC...
Agreed, Bill's track keeps inching its way to the east coast with each new model run. More and more looking like an Isabel path.
yes it does seem cooler here but still muggy it hits me when i take my evening jogs whew
000
WTNT43 KNHC 180233
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009
BILL IS FORECAST TO GROW A LITTLE MORE IN
SIZE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
GFS SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY BECOME EVEN LARGER THAN INDICATED IN THE
NHC FORECAST.
Is TWC, they say what they wanna say, when and how they please, the think the at the NHC and NWS, but they aren't. But I just watch a vid that was posted at 10:30PM and the Hurricane Expert (didn't know we had one) said that it is still five days out and the US is not out of the pic yet..
and another poster made a point out, and it is true, in every new advisory, more and more of the US East Coast is being shown, and its gettin closer to NC.
I really don't like TWC. I wouldn't believe them for one second.
I dont think its going to be a landfall but i am seeing a more than casual brush from Bill.
Thanks for the input StormW... will check back in tomorrow and sort out how worried we should be after that. Nite all.
Link
-or-
so tomorrow will be to fish or not fish?
I wouldn"t be quoting TWC here. Anyway I kinda think this will not affect the East coast much. Hey just keep your eyes open it is the smart thing to do, but I would feel a bit more relaxed now. It is following NHC's prediction pretty well and there is consensus between the models. I would be more concern if I was in Nova Scotia.
please dont say that...
MR.BILLLLL!!!!
lol...yea, that was fun...:|
No it would not. Bill would drastically weaken as it headed towards the area. It would be a sheared system, and not be a hurricane. At best a Tropical Storm. Cool SST's would also aid in weakening the storm. Lets not put the cart before the horse, because this has yet to pass the Antilles, and the NOAA jet will clear up many of the track uncertainties. All of the East Coast should be monitoring.
where in VA are you?
Same.
Its TWC, they say what they wanna say, when and how they please, they think they are the NHC and NWS, but they aren't. But I just watch a vid that was posted at 10:30PM and the Hurricane Expert (didn't know we had one) said that it is still five days out and the US is not out of the pic yet..
and another poster made a point out, and it is true, in every new advisory, more and more of the US East Coast is being shown, and its gettin closer to NC.
I have to disagree, the models were showing BILL moving north of 15N by the time it just finished crossing 45W, right now it seems its either right on 15N or just to the south, and its over 46W
Will see what Bill is doing in the morning. Tomorrow is key. If it continues more WNW, expect some large changes in track, anyways.....
See everyone in the morning.
Good night.
thank you
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