Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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stronger for 1
I was kidding too :) Always enjoy your posts :)
dont gender-bend him. that'll just cross him and make it beeline for us.
I think thats so funny LOL...
Taco :0)
good job louisianaboy.
Also:
Very wide swath indicates NHC is not extremely certain on track.
Also, anymore shifts west may put NC in the cone of uncertainty
I have yet to make my own projected path graphics. Does anyone like the other ones I have made (i.e. Ana HH, Bill Storm Track)? I will make more soon. Just beginning.
Wouldn't Bill Gates and the fleet be better, especially since it's namesake?
That strong of a trough just don't usually happen this time of the year. Sept...maybe but rarely in Aug. I hope it happens though, cause that means cooler temps for me :)
Storm, I know there is alot of talk about where it is moving, but the thing is so big that there is going to be some kinda impact as far as wind and rain in the C'bean, pretty sure I can feel easterly breeze from it already in the islands, anything about the rain bands and flash flooding in the islands if it keeps to its resent course?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ft-l.jpg
Im sorry but with every advisory the track just keeps getting closer and closer to NC...
I was thinking the same thing... even recurving at 55W is uncomfortably close with Bill's size.
How do you get it to display that graphic in Google Earth..
do you have a KML or KMZ file?
haha thanks so how are things in south louisiana tonight madam
Is there an image showing this trough?
Link
StormW, I would like your opinion on the grapics I made.
3 degrees isn't much of a north component. Then again, it all depends on if that north component increases over the next couple days. I still see Bill following (continuing to follow?) the path of 1871 Hurricane Four...
lol.
really don't know what he is looking at. i guess he's projecting the cone forward more than it is.
RECENT CENTER FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/15. THE
FORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS UNCHANGED. A WEAKNESS ALONG 50-55W IS
FORECAST TO ERODE A LARGE PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEGINNING AS SOON AS 24 HOURS FROM NOW. AS A
RESULT...THE GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAT BILL HAS
MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO BEND MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST BY 48-72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...BILL SHOULD BE STEERED
ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TRACK WHERE IT SHOULD BEGIN
ENCOUNTERING THE EFFECTS OF A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.
------------------------
To me, that sounds much like what StormW
"stated a gazillion posts back"
CRS
Thanks chevycanes.
hot hot hot. we did get a little rain, which just made it steamier. we're in the dog days of summer when it's hard to breath. i'm sure it's the same in monroe. my little sister is in shreveport. she says the get a little bit of relief every now and then. at least they get cool fronts sooner than we do down here.
Bermuda
Right now Bill reminds me of a drunk man, we know where he is going, but one stumble and he continues going in the wrong direction, bill's centre is wobbling with lots of TS activity, no eye as yet which is odd
Just checking this link out and noticed that purple blob at 85W -- is that anything (besides a purple blob...haha)?
What I do is use an "untitled placemark" and type in all of the lat and lon from every advisory NHC issues. I then use a line and connect all of them together. Then I delete all of the untitled placemarks, because I have the track mapped out. Then I use Microsoft Powerpoint to spruce it up with the "banner", the hurricane symbol, as well as all of the names of cities/towns/countries, etc. From advisory to advisory, I add placemarks, and then go to the properties of the line and continue to connect them all. Then I update all of my powerpoint things. I of course save the Google Earth image, and then insert it into the powerpoint. Confusing, but I understand.
Agreed, Bill's track keeps inching its way to the east coast with each new model run. More and more looking like an Isabel path.
Viewing: 3201 - 3251
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