Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:10 PM GMT del 17 Agosto 2009

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Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting alaina1085:


You probably will, especially living in North Louisiana. I hope we have snow again here.


I'm looking forward to a nice big Nor'easter here in MD. Like '93 or '96!
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1773. Ossqss
One mans take on the MJO this year from yesterday.

http://www.examiner.com/x-17371-Raleigh-Climate-Examiner~y2009m8d16-MaddenJulian-Oscillation-northw ard-shift-of-westerlies-ignite-Tropics

MaddenJulian-Oscillation-northward-shift-of-westerlies-ignite-Tropics
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Looking at the Past there was a stom in 1893 hitting the New England area. It's path looks a lot like Bill
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1770. Patrap
Quoting rwdobson:
"IS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST"

I love how everyone keeps pointing this out as if it is some big surprise. This is what is forecast, and has been forecast for a while.



.."FOX"-Casting..?








Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Ana's LLC has been broken up and dissapated it would have to start all over again and then she has the mountains to deal with you can pretty much take her out the oven and stick a fork in her shes done...
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Off topic but i think the South will have a harder winter this year...More chances for snow and ice storms usually accompany a El Nino Winter


You probably will, especially living in North Louisiana. I hope we have snow again here.
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Quoting Patrap:
Bad Mojo afoot,

Camille 40 years ago,,Gulf Screamers,..literally around Like Mosquitos.

A Cat 4 In the Making awaiting trofs,and Tracks a shifting lIke Bourbon Street Pimps.., and folks A waffling Like 9yr Old's after Funnel Cake.

2009 May just yet wack us with surprises Weekly Now,,



Beautiful! You are a poet!
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Quoting szqrn1:


40' something year olds after funnel cake! my fav!


Me Too.... hehehe

Taco :0)
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1763. jpsb
Quoting swlagirl:
I noticed the same thing. Will it reform????
I think it is too close to land to do much of anything. However if the front pushes it into the central gulf then, maybe.
Member Since: Giugno 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1197
1762. hahaguy
Quoting Patrap:
Bad Mojo afoot,

Camille 40 years ago,,Gulf Screamers,..literally around Like Mosquitos.

A Cat 4 In the Making awaiting trofs,and Tracks a shifting lIke Bourbon Street Pimps.., and folks A waffling Like 9yr Old's after Funnel Cake.

2009 May just yet wack us with surprises Weekly Now,,



I think you freaked me out a little lol.
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Would I be completely insane by saying we may have 3 active storms again this time tomorrow??

Gulf, ex-Anna and Bill?
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Off topic but i think the South will have a harder winter this year...More chances for snow and ice storms usually accompany a El Nino Winter
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Bill is in the cone now of this Saturday update. He is actually North of the guidance at that time. I don't believe that current dramatic right hook projected but he does certainly have a northern trend.
Quoting AllStar17:
Goes to prove storms usually do not end up in their 5-day position. So, the sharp recurvature is not a sure thing, thus the models have now begun to shift west. If this becomes a trend, then we should start watching even more closely.

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Quoting Nickelback:
Sinced no COC was found in Ana is she over? Lets say the Wave Reforms is it still A or is it D?


I believe it will still be Ana if/when it reforms....
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1756. junie1
bill is going to have to take a very hard shift to the north west if its to miss the northeaster islands i live in the virgin islands so i know better than to put all my faith into forcast models
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1755. bcn
In the page of NOAA I've a button to activate, over the GOM image, the measures of... snow. Nobody worries, no snow today and all models says tomorrow we will have also no snow.
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1754. Patrap
Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
Sinced no COC was found in Ana is she over? Lets say the Wave Reforms is it still A or is it D?
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Quoting Patrap:
Bad Mojo afoot,

Camille 40 years ago,,Gulf Screamers,..literally around Like Mosquitos.

A Cat 4 In the Making awaiting trofs,and Tracks a shifting lIke Bourbon Street Pimps.., and folks A waffling Like 9yr Old's after Funnel Cake.

2009 May just yet wack us with surprises Weekly Now,,



ROFL... bourbon street pimps. NICE.
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That would make you a flagcaster

OMG lol
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Quoting StormW:


Roger that...should be watched, but those are the 2 keys I'm looking for. Can't count out any spin I guess as warm as the GOMEX is.

wait, are you two referring to remnant left behind by Claudette? What gives?
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"IS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST"

I love how everyone keeps pointing this out as if it is some big surprise. This is what is forecast, and has been forecast for a while.
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1746. divdog
Quoting StormW:


Roger that...should be watched, but those are the 2 keys I'm looking for. Can't count out any spin I guess as warm as the GOMEX is.

saw this a little earlier but was quoted the last advisory on claudette when i mentioned it. Seems my eyes may have not deceived me and something has been left behind ??
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1745. szqrn1
Quoting Patrap:
Bad Mojo afoot,

Camille 40 years ago,,Gulf Screamers,..literally around Like Mosquitos.

A Cat 4 In the Making awaiting trofs,and Tracks a shifting lIke Bourbon Street Pimps.., and folks A waffling Like 9yr Old's after Funnel Cake.

2009 May just yet wack us with surprises Weekly Now,,



40' something year olds after funnel cake! my fav!
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Quoting CaneWarning:


I'm going to start flagging posts that use the term _____caster. It's getting old.


That would make you a flagcaster.
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Quoting dcoaster:
Well, it looks as though the UKMET (which was trending to the west all day and yesterday) has shifted north and east, while the others (which were trending north and east) have shifted south and west...


I think they're confusing each other. Strange.
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1742. Patrap
Bad Mojo afoot,

Camille 40 years ago,,Gulf Screamers,..literally around Like Mosquitos.

A Cat 4 In the Making awaiting trofs,and Tracks a shifting like Bourbon Street Pimps.., and folks A waffling Like 9yr Old's after Funnel Cake.

2009 May just yet wack us with surprises Weekly Now,,

Member Since: Luglio 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128875
1741. Walshy
Quoting reedzone:


I said New England, Florida will not have any impact, trust me, I'm not a wishcaster. I've been saying this has a possibility of being a Northeast storm, or at least swiping New England like Edouard in 1996.



(laughs) Did you not see what Dr.Masters said about Florida? Rough waves and rip currents. That will kill a few people up along the entire east coast. Bill is going to be strong, and close enough for states like Florida,North Carolina and Maine to feel the effects.
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Red,it reminds me of Floyd in the fall of 1999. I lived in syracuse,ny than and it just poured for days but this storm looks better put together than floyed and i think it could have a very similar path..
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Well, it looks as though the UKMET (which was trending to the west all day and yesterday) has shifted north and east, while the others (which were trending north and east) have shifted south and west...
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Quoting StormW:


Actually, I called for this shift, and the 18Z models have shifted left. The models and storm are doing exactly what I had been thinking.


I hope you're wrong. I'll stick with the fish for the moment. No offense.
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Actually, I called for this shift, and the 18Z models have shifted left. The models and storm are doing exactly what I had been thinking

You sure did good call Senior Chief lol
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Here's a map I made when Bill was a Tropical Storm last night.. The possibilities then and even today, possibilities for Bill. Just don't mind the old satellite image.

Photobucket
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I know people do not like TWC, but does anyone have any of the "dramatic music" they play during tropical systems. Not Storm Alert, but I guess other generic beds (background music) they play?
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1733. szqrn1
Quoting swlagirl:
I noticed the same thing. Will it reform????


I have been watching this all day and asking that same question
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ok lets see whats gonna happen then u never know

yeah that i agree with ;)
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1730. jpsb
Thanks for the reply StormW
Member Since: Giugno 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1197
1728. WxLogic
Quoting kw21692:

Hey I live in TN and would love a good snow. If El Nino hangs around could we get it?


Hehe... never say never... it is possible. Unfortunately, your area will typically experience a lesser amount of rainfall during an El Nino year so it might be tricky and variables will have to be setup just right for that to happen.
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Quoting wxfempilot:
For anyone who's interested in seeing some awesome live pictures of Bill from the ISS, NASA's TV webcam shows the storm when it sweeps by from above. You have to time it right, but it's worth the watch. Gotta be patient while it does its earth revolution - when the storm comes up, you'll get a good look at what looks like the currently closed circulation of one huge storm - very impressive.
Link


Thank You so much very nice pictures.... Also great info

Taco :0)
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Hurricane Bill is giving the illusion moving more WNW than it actually is, its because its actually expanding in size that is giving this illusion, for now Bill moving just North of due West ,jmo.
Member Since: Aprile 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7935
Goes to prove storms usually do not end up in their 5-day position. So, the sharp recurvature is not a sure thing, thus the models have now begun to shift west. If this becomes a trend, then we should start watching even more closely.

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Quoting MississippiWx:
Visible loops show a spin in the remnants of Claudette as well over the Northern Gulf. Interesting. Certainly not going to rule anything out after how Claudette formed.
I noticed the same thing. Will it reform????
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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