Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 — Blog Index
1871 Hurricane Four
55W is rather close to the islands
I would have to agree.
seriously need ur opinion on Bill motion
Too much for comfort...and it still would be below forecast points.
This WV loop shows the ridge of high pressure building down on top of Bill from the NW. Is it strong enough to hold him down ??
Something just doesn't add up here. Bill is forecast to go right thru all those white lines. Now how can that be? Either the NHC forecast is down right silly (I just can not believe that) or those white lines are really not there. Anyone? Thanks
I noticed that the pressure is getting down into serious numbers.
Lets hope it does not get into the 'big leagues' below 930 anytime soon.
Hehe, I don't even recall any rain to speak of.
maybe that what slowed him
Other than that gap in convection its a very impressive system, nice eye forming.
So far seems that yes. It just hasn't been able to get past 15N yet.
we measured a central pressure of 960.5 mbar at the evac point last year when Ike passed over...300 miles inland....
I'm not a big fan of that potential track...
Can understand why. To be honest, I can't imagine how you must be feeling watching this continue moving generally westward.
Do you have any links to good TCHP graphics? The only one I have has been out of date since May. I'm sure you know which one I'm talking about. If so, could you please post them. Thankyou and I really appreciate your posts and synopsis's.
MARK
03L/H/C2
MARK
14.8N/47.9W
a bit fustrated
In the WV loop I just posted you can see the NE flow in the dry air depicting the high pressure sinking to the S. In the short term it should have some impact on the track of Bill, perhaps a jog more to the West. We need to watch how that ridge develops to see how Bill reacts to it. If it continues to come down from the N Bill will have little option but to respond with a more Westerly track, at least in the short term.
RGB
AVN
WV
Somewhat probable, so far Bill has done nearly everything I expected of him, only now is the track be questioned.PS I know the ? wasn't directed to me but if you've been following my comments , felt I had to respond.
Forecasting is, in short, a SWAG (Scientific wild-ass guess)
WV
ok, still tricky but not looking as good as this morning
thanks much.
the rain from ana was nothing. weak tropical waves produce more rain and bad weather than that
If I had to give a percentage to it it would be less than 10%. It would take a very strong ridge of high pressure with a nose all the way into the GOM to force BIll this way IMO.
Highly unlikely given where the system is already.
sure
LINK
calm down? didnt realise I was high
I'm not a fan either b/c it gets Bill that much closer to the Gulf, but at the same time, the similarities between 1871 Hurricane Four and Bill are kind of creepy. Both formed into a hurricane close to 50W 15N, both on August 17th. They've followed nearly the same track and took the same jog north. The only comforting thing is that weather is unpredictable, and behaves sporadically. I do not want Bill to hit any populated area but I am not going to rule out the possibility based on models which are frequently, flat out wrong.
Viewing: 2701 - 2751
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 — Blog Index