Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 — Blog Index
Notice the 14.8 Lat - started at 14.6 at 5 PM and is supposed to be at 15.2 at 2 AM - very close to the NHC track
Right now it may look like that high is carved in stone. By Thursday, however, it is entirely possible that the trough people have been talking about - the kind of trough that causes most of the US weather - will carve away at that thing like a hunk of cheese.
Wait and see is the name of the game..... lol
Thank you, good to know!
"Eye" Be gone...
If you understood what I just wrote, that makes one of us.
No...in fact the only people who believe that are the same ones waiting for Ana to hit New Orleans next week.
that could be the joker that changes things. it seems it has loss a little of its roundness.
At this time, if I live in the Northern Lesser Antilles (right around Weather456's neck of the woods), I would be keeping a much closer eye on Hurricane Bill now.
WHXX01 KWBC 180043
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0043 UTC TUE AUG 18 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL (AL032009) 20090818 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090818 0000 090818 1200 090819 0000 090819 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 47.6W 15.7N 50.3W 16.9N 52.6W 18.4N 54.8W
BAMD 14.8N 47.6W 15.6N 50.3W 16.5N 52.6W 17.5N 54.6W
BAMM 14.8N 47.6W 15.7N 50.4W 16.8N 52.5W 18.0N 54.6W
LBAR 14.8N 47.6W 15.7N 50.5W 16.6N 53.6W 17.5N 56.6W
SHIP 85KTS 91KTS 97KTS 101KTS
DSHP 85KTS 91KTS 97KTS 101KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090820 0000 090821 0000 090822 0000 090823 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.4N 57.0W 24.3N 62.4W 28.3N 65.8W 33.9N 64.1W
BAMD 18.9N 56.4W 23.2N 59.9W 29.6N 61.8W 36.5N 61.1W
BAMM 19.7N 56.5W 24.1N 61.0W 29.5N 63.9W 36.0N 63.2W
LBAR 18.6N 59.4W 21.3N 65.0W 25.2N 68.6W 37.5N 64.9W
SHIP 105KTS 106KTS 102KTS 99KTS
DSHP 105KTS 106KTS 102KTS 99KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.8N LONCUR = 47.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 44.6W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.1N LONM24 = 41.3W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 967MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 130NM
$$
NNNN
Seems to be hitting some "wall" out there called the Bermuda High. Really thinking the computer models have severely underestimated the strength of the Bermuda High.
Storm information valid as of: Tuesday, August 18, 2009 0:00 Z
Coordinates: 14.8N 47.6W (View Map or View Storm Centered Satellite Image)
Location: 815 miles (1312 km) to the E (82°) from Bridgetown, Barbados
Distance Calculator: How far away is this storm from me?
Pressure (MSLP): 967 mb (28.56 inHg | 967 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 85 knots (98 mph | 44 m/s)
well ur right, just told us Bill maybe closer than expected
Yup... hoping I can get some rest tonight. What a nailbiter.
Rorschach test?
But by Thursday, at current forward mtion, Bill will be past the Antilles?
That is the part of the equation that I am not getting.
WATCHES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE ISLANDS AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING
DANNY!!!! lol.
It won't for a few hours. It just met an invisible wall it seems =P
1871 Hurricane Four
Viewing: 2651 - 2701
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 — Blog Index