Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 — Blog Index
Not a good scenario for me
No.. it's moving entirely to the west and that my friend is not a jog.
ANYTHING.
I guess you told me. Very thorough analysis. Do not let anyone tell you differently, who are good. Wish my students were as observant.
Yes, so there is no threat to Florida, because Florida is west of Bill, and if Bill is moving east, obviously Bill cannot hit Florida (this sounds like an SAT question).
Classic
?? You see?
Location, Lafreniere?
I'd agree with the bulk of the others on here; unless Bill gets somehow far enough west to affect places like Antigua and Barbuda, it's extremely unlikely to hit the Bahamas. Even if it did, the earliest time frame for that would be the weekend. Lots of lead time......
NOLA, not that I'm expecting it to come here or anything like that; its just all the hype about it missing the first ridge and the models moving West. I never really trust the models that much and i like hearing the reasons that people give on why the storms will move in certain directions. And i know it is still very far away from U.S.
So aliens can come down and hit bill with super massive laser and make it go into reverse and go to anartica? sorry just messing with ya, yeah i hope this turns its GFS forcasts it to go right over my island in eastern nova scotia :\
But, at Bill's current speed, Thursday is irrelevant.
At this forward speed, by Thursday, Bill will be past the Antilles longitude and heading West....NorthWest, East, whatever, but past the Antilles already?
Evening Baha, no no no , no such thoughts please, by the way is it raining where you are? (remains of Ana) Nothing here in the Turks and Caicos yet...
U never know. lol.
Yeah, we can hope and I agree, I wish I could 'direct it away'.....it will cause untold damage to whatever it hits.
But, there are possibilities, probabilities and realities and maybes.........
We will see...
E-mail me when the aliens come...
5:51pm quikscat
This is what I am beginning to think and this makes the situation for the northern Lesser Antilles more dire by the hour. This chart indicates why we are seeing these shifts to the west since the path to the north is blocked. Then this opens a whole new chain of events for you guys and gals along the eastern seaboard of the continent.....being on this blog is like playing roulette!.... Russian or otherwise.
Aw c'mon Chuck... I'm already getting calls and emails from some of your neighbors asking if they can come to the Upstate in a "what if scenario." At least Bill has people thinking about their emergency plans, even if it IS too early to be getting in the car :).
And I believe that was for Ana as she was the center of you attention.
AL, 03, 2009081800, , BEST, 0, 148N, 476W, 85, 967, HU
yes we are prepared to watch bill go up north. other than that i will be on the beach to get a look at some of the expected high waves
Do not be surprised that once Bill gets past 50W that it picks up the forward speed again... 20+ mph towards the west, or WNW is very possible as Bill now comes under the influence of the Bermuda high to the NW....
IMO, if you are in the N. Lesser Antilles it is time to start getting nervous....
I knew BIll was going to make you guys think about the caribbean cane
Viewing: 2601 - 2651
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 — Blog Index