Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thanks bro, I appreciate the help!
that's funny, because in Western Broward it smelled like fish on Saturday night after pre claudette passed by. It was weird.
That's amazing. Hope he gets shoved away. That part of the country isn't even thinking hurricane this time of year.
Check again.
Thanks for this!
So eager for their first readings!
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA EXTEND FROM
HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
lol...for now.....she's a fighter...
Am I reading it right?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2009081712&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
I ran my virus program last night and had a ton of garbage on it. Seems to be running much better now.
Click image, paste the link, enter, enter.
wrong.
INITIAL 17/2100Z 14.6N 46.7W 80 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.2N 48.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.2N 51.3W 95 KT
the NHC has him hitting 15N at 48.7W
LINK
hmmmm....doesnt work for me
Nope, but like I've been saying, it's a possibility
Well then they're a bit off.. It's already at 14.9, borderline 15N as we speak.. Only 47.3-47.4W at the moment.
I am pretty sure that all of Broward county smells like fish.
You need to upload the image fist to the internet.
I use Imageshack for hosting the image and for browser image editing i use Sumo (like photoshop just free). You have to manual set the image size (width/height).
That's funny.
i need someone to truly, show me where is the ridge weakness so i can squelch the doomcaster in me
Make sure you're copying the image location. Most of the time if you right click on an image, you can select "Copy Image Location", and then you simply click on Image, paste the location, and skip the width and height to post the image in its original size. Another way you can do it is to right click on an image, click properties, and copy the location from the properties text box.
That's a very small Isobar lol.. the HWRF is west as well, about the same position at 12Z. Look closely.. Bermuda is getting TD/TS winds.
Bill is not taking a jog to the south.
People keep saying these kinds of things, and I can only imagine that they must be looking obsessively at satellite loops and "seeing"/wishing/fearing some change in direction that IS NOT OCCURRING.
There are frequently optical illusions with satellite loops, where a burst of convection or the turning of the center makes it APPEAR that the storm is lurching/moving in a certain direction. That's just your eyes/brain playing tricks on you, seeing a pattern that's not there.
Bill is moving as forecast.
Thank you. That will be all.
-
2352. WeatherMSK
Just above your comments box is are 4 possibilities, one of which is "Image."
Click on image and paste in the image address.
You get that by right clicking (Command and click on Macs) on the picture you're interested in and copying the address, first. Then you can come over to the Comments box and paste it in. It may ask you for dimensions, but you can just click and skip those if you're not sure.
14.9N, ~47.3-.4W (Or if you want to use the center of the tight circulation seen visibly, it's at 47.5W, but even closer to 15N....)
Look at this quikscat of Bill at 7:55 this morning, COC well below 14N.
Where is the image to what you are saying?
Hey, I live in Broward County, on the water. But Jupiter is nice, too!!!
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