Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 02:10 PM GMT del 17 Agosto 2009

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Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Hey, Mishy! what's up?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bill is so large, the pressure gradient increases the trades so you smell the sea as if a storm was coming.
Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2122. RyanFSU
GFS 18Z to the Canadian Maritimes. Very wobbly cycle-to-cycle. Low confidence likely. Look at the last 6 or 7 cycles:

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456,

that graphic makes one realize how close a brush it can potentially be for NE CAR islands....
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Bill still worries me. I'm in FL so think I'm in good shape, but I don't like the west motion longer than expected. Hoping that trough is going to do as expected.
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2118. Fshhead
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Watch the front off Jersey.


Why?
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Quoting Weather456:
Bill is the talk all across the islands - hope it stays it distance



Umm are you sure its going to miss those islands? Bill is getting awfully close.
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Quoting Fshhead:
Aaaaaand here comes the cavalry!!!!!!
Link

Another front lining up behind the featured one... :)


Watch the front off Jersey.
Member Since: Luglio 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
2115. sngalla
Quoting jdjnola:


It's going west west west west west, it's going west it's going weeeeeeeeeeeest (this was obviously sung).



Sung by the band Stabbing Westward!
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Bill is the talk all across the islands - hope it stays it distance

Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2113. Drakoen
Beautiful guitar
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Quoting keywestbrat:

this is one of my favs hope you like itLink

456,
thanks for that, but I have the radar for the DR. I haven't been able to talk to the other half in the DR for a while, wondering if they got washed out, dodgey resources there.

Are you thinking about Ana - not Bill?
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Ahhhhh.... the youth is wasted on the young.
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Is there any chance I can become a StratoCaster? :-)

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This is what was experience with Ana last night

LINK
Member Since: Luglio 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting pearlandaggie:


oh, no! the IRS is after Bill?!?!?! no wonder he's moving so fast :)
Hey!
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2106. jdjnola
Quoting DestinJeff:


nice loop, drak. cue the "it's going west" chorus


It's going west west west west west, it's going west it's going weeeeeeeeeeeest (this was obviously sung).
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2105. Engine2
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_03.gif
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2104. Fshhead
Aaaaaand here comes the cavalry!!!!!!
Link

Another front lining up behind the featured one... :)
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Quoting rareaire:
WHATS THIS? Link


What's left of Anna...
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2102. GatorWX
Quoting pearlandaggie:
TCHP


It's from May, I don't have a link for any that are current either. Anyone have graphics for current TCHP? Can't understand why they haven't updated, maybe a new site somewhere???
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forgive me 4 being forward,, i went to unc asheville, and also met state college in denver,, never had the chance,for state college in penn, great places if you want to go into met and communications,,lets hope all here are safe , regardless, of others opinions..its my first post here, i find a slew of info here, ty
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


ITS GOING WEST!!1111!!
true west for the first time in awhile.
Member Since: Aprile 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7664
2099. whitewabit (Mod)
NOAA will begin fly Bill tomorrow models will be much better after that..
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2098. jdjnola
Quoting WeatherMSK:
The few folks in here that say watch out for "Ana", i completely agree. There is alot of energy that is poised to make it to the gulf.


Absolutely. Not trying to doomcast, but I think Ana could combine with another feature re-develop, and the Gulf is so full of potential energy already.
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EUMETSAT SOURCE
Member Since: Settembre 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
2094. 7544
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Keeping an eye on ex ana, since she will most likely affect florida before anything else does. warm waters and decnt shear numbers, if she can form a new llc more north and consolidate, watch her.


agree and the navy site has never removed her and she still is listed there maybe if she moves twoard so fla tonight she might just come alive at dmax like she has been doing all week . it normal to se her in this codition shes been looking dead all week long at this time of the day and blows a dmax so imo i give her one more time tonight at dmax to shine and if she does this get bumpy closer to home
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (1200z 17AUG)
========================================
LOW (1006 HPA) NEAR 08S 81E.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 17AUG)
===========================================
An area of convection ("90S") located at 8.1S 83.6E or 655 NM east of Diego Garcia. A 0410z ASCAT Pass shows a developed, symmetric low level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates that there is strong northeasterly vertical winds of 20-30 knots however, the system is moving southward towards the ridge axis, a more favorable environment. Additional sea surface temperature along its track are well in excess of 28C

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 22-27 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 MB. I view of the improving environment, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR
Hmmm.... was noticing some disturbed weather S of the Indian peninsula on some global graphics posted earlier today. Isn't it a bit early for them to get going....??
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Hey PlandAg, did you check the date on that link? (C'mon, man. You are going to make us look bad.)


WTF?!?! no, i didn't...it come up like that from Google...
DOH! that's what i get for trying to do a good deed! LOL
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2090. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


Southern Hemisphere just can't wait until October/November!
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I do not trust the forecast for the ridges in place, its a hard call, especially if the trough does not interfere.
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Quoting Weather456:


sometimes

Barometer Bob asked StormW a question last night

"Could Bill's outflow enhaced the subtropical ridge, thereby strengthening it"

Cant remember the answer but I'm not leaning towards this scenario.


The ridge is part of a circulation, on a scale much larger than Bill. It was there before Bill. It will be there after, so I would say Bill will not affect it that much.
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
TCHP

Hey PlandAg, did you check the date on that link? (C'mon, man. You are going to make us look bad.)
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2086. GatorWX


Bill looks perfect. Conditions aloft are ideal, allowing its structure to be so round. I know if were a cat 4 or 5 and similar in appearance it would look even better, but for its intensity, they don't look much better.
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2085. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL STORM VAMCO (T0910)
6:00 AM JST August 18 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Marshall Island

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Vamco (1000 hPa) located at 15.0N 158.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest at 9 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 18.2N 156.5E - 45 knots (Cat 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 20.3N 155.4E - 55 knots (Cat 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 22.2N 153.9E - 60 knots (Cat 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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Quoting Saninmihar:
Whats that trailing behind Bill? I noticed it on the IRS earlier today.


oh, no! the IRS is after Bill?!?!?! no wonder he's moving so fast :)
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Quoting Drakoen:


ITS GOING WEST!!1111!!

hehe....
Member Since: Luglio 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
2082. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO (EP102009)
21:00 PM UTC August 17 2009
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Guillermo (1000 hPa) located at 22.3N 146.0W or 535 NM east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 17 knots.

Gale-force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 23.3N 148.4W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: 24.8N 151.5W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 27.3N 158.2W - 25 knots (Low Pressure Area)
72 HRS: Dissipating
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2081. JRRP
looks like bill finally reach to 15n
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Keeping an eye on ex ana, since she will most likely affect florida before anything else does. warm waters and decnt shear numbers, if she can form a new llc more north and consolidate, watch her.
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2078. Seastep
Might bbl (family stuff), but felt the need to pop on and say that the 5pm discussion on Bill is probably the best I have ever seen.
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2077. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (1200z 17AUG)
========================================
LOW (1006 HPA) NEAR 08S 81E.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 17AUG)
===========================================
An area of convection ("90S") located at 8.1S 83.6E or 655 NM east of Diego Garcia. A 0410z ASCAT Pass shows a developed, symmetric low level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates that there is strong northeasterly vertical winds of 20-30 knots however, the system is moving southward towards the ridge axis, a more favorable environment. Additional sea surface temperature along its track are well in excess of 28C

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 22-27 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 MB. I view of the improving environment, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR
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Whats that trailing behind Bill? I noticed it on the IRS earlier today.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Oh, I got the wrong person, don't I? CyberTeddy is the one that went through Isabel outside in VA Beach.
Isabel is what you misspelled, but not important. Sry.
Nah, u shoulda nabbed me anyhow. Guess which storm my avatar is........

LOL
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I think it was John Hope that said, I could be wrong, if CV Hurricane remained below 15N/45W it was much less chance of them recurving before affecting land. He was Great.
Member Since: Aprile 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7664

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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