Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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ANA
Bill
Claudette
True. But it would have to be a trend-not a jog.
Now before I go on I do not believe Bill will make a direct impact on the islands. Right now its sightly over 15N and onwards of passing 50W tomorrow at probably 16N. Right now it's feeling the pull of the through and also the coriolis effect. There's very little chance of this hitting the northern islands except with feeder bands and the "tail" and even then... it will quite be far away. I am not downcasting or wishcasting anything, but I am very sure that through won't be that strong and the East Coast could face a skirt. I had been saying two days ago Bill was going into the caribbean and obviously I was wrong... but, I've come to the conclusion that it can go even below the southestern track of the NHC if it, at any points during the next 48 hours, tracks purely to the W for about 6-8 hours. I find that extremely unlikely UNLESS the highs bridge or strengthen and the through weakens even more allow Bill to move... and even then it would be a WNW movement that would put it closer to the islands, no direct impact.
What do the WU masters say about this?
LOL.
Think he was referring to WS lol
(Oh, short FYI: It's now sometimes referred to as OHC(Ocean Heat Content) rather than Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential......But it's just semantics, really. :D)
CIMSS
CIMSS has storm-specific OHC. Just click on Hurricane Bill on the front page and then Beside "Ocean" click on "OHC (RSMAS)".
You can zoom out using the "Image Resolution" tab on the left side of the page.
your telling me...
The indigenous Carib Indians of the islands used to warn the first European settlers about coming hurricanes by knowing such natural signals. But at first the Europeans did not believe them because the skies were blue and the waves looked like regular swells....then all hell let loose....and after the devastation the settlers accused the natives of witchcraft. Sometimes you just can't win.
But no joking now...there are things happening in the northern Lesser Antilles tonight that hint something is out there...and big.
canesrule1, bro...what happened to ana?...lol
South Florida StormWatch
just a tad left of what I expected. But I'm trying as best as possible to ignore any westward shift. I really really dont need something like Bill right now.
This is bringing some evening Tstorms into my area....
Link
In your estimation?
Certainly not. We can not sleep on the remnants of Ana. She has already come back once. I would mainly watch the area of convection north of Hispaniola for consolidation, and maybe pressures lowering, if that happens, (re)development would be possible.
He is HUGE....a few degrees to the west and you would get some of his weather. At least people are taking him seriously.
Wow thats cool.
yea, you right about that. I remember a story of hundreds of Europeans that were swept away in a hurricane. while few Caribs (the natives that use to live here) died.
from what he sees, his opinion...
dont start...if you see it differently, then leave it at that...
Well thankyou very much!! Can you get different regions or the entire Atlantic off CIMSS as well?
I for one understand exactly where you're coming from!Keep safe.
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