Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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It's from May, I don't have a link for any that are current either. Anyone have graphics for current TCHP? Can't understand why they haven't updated, maybe a new site somewhere???
What's left of Anna...
Link
Another front lining up behind the featured one... :)
It's going west west west west west, it's going west it's going weeeeeeeeeeeest (this was obviously sung).
LINK
Are you thinking about Ana - not Bill?
Sung by the band Stabbing Westward!
Watch the front off Jersey.
Umm are you sure its going to miss those islands? Bill is getting awfully close.
Why?
that graphic makes one realize how close a brush it can potentially be for NE CAR islands....
There was talk that the front off Jersey might pull Bill north early.
totally, classic!! I love my Marten parlor though, wouldn't trade it for anything else!
How big would you say Bill is?
I guess if you said that all of the hurricanes will be going up, then, yeah, sure.
jejejeje
How you guys make out, we got less than am inch, upsetting really.... St. John recorded 25 mph sustained and gust to 43mph... not bad, still I wanted more rain...
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM
The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) in the Virgin Islands (UK) has issued a Hurricane Advisory and placed its national response system on stand-by in preparation for Hurricane Bill. The island was on a Tropical Storm watch this morning in anticipation of Tropical Depression Ana but has since stood-down and reported no damage.
Anguilla
The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) in Anguilla has issued regular public advisories via the news media to alert persons of the approaching hurricane and is completing readiness actions.
Antigua & Barbuda
The National Office of Disaster Services (NODS) issued a Press Release this morning to warn the public on the on-coming threat of Hurricane Bill. The Minister of Health, the National Disaster Coordinator, the Director of the National Red Cross and the Chief Meteorological Officer were guests on the Television Station this morning to update the public and encourage increased preparatory actions. The national disaster response mechanism is placed on standby.
Regional Response: CDERA has been monitoring Hurricane Bill as it moves towards the region. The Coordinating Unit has established contact with the National Disaster Offices in the threatened area and will continue to provide updated information on the islands’ preparedness actions.
The Coordinating Unit has finalized arrangements for accessing emergency response personnel who will lead specialized teams (Emergency Operations Centre and Assessment Teams), if necessary.
The Coordinating Unit will continue to monitor the situation with Hurricane Bill as it moves towards Caribbean and provide advisories as necessary.
yep, Ana was dry, we also got less than inch. she was more of gusty event.
hopefully the cavalry of fronts do the job to kick out Bill. Unfortunately, the big front has barely moved in the past 20 hours or so, and the main low with the front is already occluding itself in the Hudson Bay.
IMO, the cavalry needs more help.
Thanks!
And I'm thinking that's on the large side, yes?
Katrina was huge and she was, what?, 300? 400? miles across?
Please correct me if I have that wrong, I don't have the measurements in front of me...
Yeah, I think you're safe for now! ;)
I'll measure him in google earth
LOL!
Seems to me it's been going wnw as expected
that looks like an avatar of one here..
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