Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Don't be so offended about what others think. I don't think it'll come near the US, bt certainly nothing's set in stone. People will always disagree! I've seen you post many times that you felt betrayed so to speak. Just let it go. It's not worth it. You don't have to try so hard to get your point across. If people get caught off guard, that's due to their own negligence. Everyone should be aware if something threatening is on the horizon and if they don't, they should have paid more attention. All I'm saying is don't worry about what others think. State your opinion and that's it.
Your pic is disturbing.
It could be anywhere along the East Coast.
I'm actually more concern for Bermuda and Nova Scotia at the moment. Bill is a very large system, and a displacement east or west is equal to a great deal of actual distance.
I was dead on with the track of 98L, just not the tropical characteristics part of it.. I live in Florida btw, not New York, I used to live up there 8 years ago.
I keep wondering how this shift in the overall flow pattern for CONUS and CAnada will influence steering patterns over the Tropical ATL.....
What'd I misspell????
I am not, I back my forecasting with evidence.
I agree and disagree. I think Bill has about a 20% chance of hitting from FL to the Carolinas. If that trough don't pick it up, then watch out. However, that trough seems strong enough to pick it up and lift out.
sometimes
Barometer Bob asked StormW a question last night
"Could Bill's outflow enhaced the subtropical ridge, thereby strengthening it"
Cant remember the answer but I'm not leaning towards this scenario.
What is Wishcasting?
can someone show me the image of the trough that is going to turn Bill, he's almost at 50W now thanks
SWB is an instigator.
hope this helps, from my blog
Link
Wow, good job :) .. I'll admit I was wishcasting in 2006, but when I predicted Humberto in 2007 to reach at least 60 mph. at landfall, some blogger on there called me a noob wishcaster, with profanity.. nice guy. Yet in the end, Humberto became a Hurricane before landfall. I've gotten better this year, I look carefully at the pattern now more then ever, sometimes I will go by models, but again as I always say.. "Models are NOT gods" ;)
wat do u think it'll do?
Oh, I got the wrong person, don't I? CyberTeddy is the one that went through Isabel outside in VA Beach.
Isabel is what you misspelled, but not important. Sry.
Not taking "sides" on the Bill track, but I don't think that is true.
Bill will probably go further west than the NHC's most recent track, but not far enough, I dont think. Best to watch and see. Too much of the "its going more west" just gets people in trouble. Soapbox done, lurkmode, on....
No idea about schools but hang around here - lots of good knowledge and some met students blog regularly. Also a free site Comet.edu I think with excellent free courses.
lol
Texas A&M, of course.
An incomplete list of schools offering an undergrad is here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mob/metschools.shtml
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