Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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00Z
Me mentioning Floyd is like you mentioning Isabel. I Don't think This will hit the East Coast But It won't be a fish storm Bermuda or Canada will get this one.
HAHA!!
I think that's the right answer, or so I've been told.
Weather getting a little better for now in MS..
wow lol
Still steady drizzle here in Mobile.
hmm maybe that's what you needed to hear...ok sorry
Gilbert?
No problems with that, you just sound very much like a couple of other posters we've had here.
And I happen to agree with you about Ana. Maybe not the advisories (although she is moving awfully fast for the Caribbean/Gom), but I for one will be watching until her leftovers exit stage left.
Quite a large shift left GFS is now the eastern outlier
Buzz Saw!
456 they are getting too close for comfort here.... they need to stop shifting west and now. what do you think about a potential East coast hit?
An excellent example Weather456, clearly shows that folks in the Northeast need to watch Bill.
Yeah, I don't envy you guys in how tough it is to get a real good intensity forecast of a system that might round the bend at 35 N and come at me at 60 mph. I don't know the answer. Might be within 48 hours of landfall up there. How would we deal with that? Err on the side of caution, I suppose.
Very self-protected.
Ana
Yep, he's expanding his windfield. His girth is impressive.
Nobody took you serious because you live in New York right? They just thought you was wishcasting but i always did think you had a point
One can hope.
It's still capable of wreaking havoc along the coastline, from the erosion.
Not if doesn't affect anyone. They're not retired because of intensity, but because of damage inflicted and loss of life. Perhaps if it affects Bermuda or the Canadian maritime provinces, but otherwise I'd say we'll see "Bill" again when the current list is cycled through again.
Who's not to say the models trend much farther left?
a small chance of east coast hit, BUT, for some reason he does, the angle favor the northern coast of the east coast to be affected, like N Carolina go north.
Nova Scotia stands a greater chance of being affected by Bill
Some poeple need to stop calling Bill a fish, since the islands, Bermuda and Nova Scotia are all watching him.
Juan 2003 was basically fish till he hit Nova Scotia.
Florence 2006 was basically fish till she affected Bermuda and Nova Scotia
Fabian 2003 was basically fish until it affected Bermuda.
I used to live in New York 8 years ago, I live in Florida. I have lots of family in NY, I just didn't want people to let there guards down because models at the time were taking it way out to sea and that bloggers were confident of a no hit for USA, which can deff happen.
I think the ENTIRE East Coast needs to watch Bill, not just the northeast
It's not a bad idea to go get some extra batteries and other provisions before everyone in town has the same great idea. Think about where you'd want to be if a Cat 3 or 4 came upon Halifax. Make tentative plans. You'll sleep better. Take care! Hope the rhodys in the park come through fine.
I totally agree with, exactly how alot of people discounted my notion that it would not go into the gulf too. I am not counting Bill out. There are alot of pieces that need to fit together to go either way. Out to sea (Bermuda) or east coast.
but u always predict an east coast storm cuz thats where u are
Don't be so offended about what others think. I don't think it'll come near the US, bt certainly nothing's set in stone. People will always disagree! I've seen you post many times that you felt betrayed so to speak. Just let it go. It's not worth it. You don't have to try so hard to get your point across. If people get caught off guard, that's due to their own negligence. Everyone should be aware if something threatening is on the horizon and if they don't, they should have paid more attention. All I'm saying is don't worry about what others think. State your opinion and that's it.
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