Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I thought that to be a bad idea too!
LOL.
I updated the site..visit it when you get a chance..
And can't wait for the next model run and advisory on Bill.!
Inappropriate and this is hurricane season.
Please?
Watching Bill closely and grateful for the updates and info.
Ladies, for our viewing pleasure, and not off-topic since he's a CNN weather hotty, uhm, I mean hunk, uhm, I mean forecaster...
Reynolds Wolf
There's my only worthwhile contribution for today :) (at least it's not any kind of "casting")
Sorry IMA - I believe you are forecasting.
that is just an anomaly =P
although Bill could grow more as he gets stronger =\
It's freaky, but don't worry I am quite certain it won't make it over to the islands. I see a 10% chance of that happening. Right now its moving WNW and even if he kept that direction forever he would still be pretty fall from us. Rest easy man, there's nothing coming for us at least a week minimum. =P
Whom is this, really? And how many handles do you have now?
I don't care where you are if there's a cat 5 everyone's watching it
If Bill does head west- northwest we could be in trouble since it is a large storm so better for him to head NW =P
That would be GFDL. GFS would give us a cat 2 with exactly the same data, somehow...it would find a way.
Yep. And the long tails you see on the satellite pic are beginning to roll over us in the mid Lesser Antilles like gentle windy waves and bands of cloud. And yet Bill is over 900 miles away!.....Lets remember a hurricane is not a dot on a map.
He's looking real nasty right now, can't wait to see what Bill is going to look like in 2 days.
Bottoming out at 904 MBs? That would be a disaster waiting to happen. Especially with that NWward component at the end of the run.
The 18Z GFS also takes it well east of the islands....cat 5 or no cat 5.......
Not really. Katrina had a very different track and cyclogenesis history. One key difference is that the pre-Katrina wave had never been named anything at all.
Don't ask a question if you can't handle the truth! :)
Nice !
Its not the size of the cyclone, but the power it possesses :)
haha yeah that was very inappropriate don't worry about that...
lmao u go girl
Fixed that
Everyone makes mistakes, but I am awfully surprised you misspelled that one.
If it passes the 50W barrier and its 160N it's safe to say we are safe! If it gets to 55 W at 17N then worry a lot, but it's extremely unlikely we will get more than some rain and surf along some nice gusts. Hopefully. Worst case scenario he suddenly starts moving W for about 12 hours and that would change the entirety of the forecast, but with the throughs coming down that's pretty hard to happen as of now. Rest easy and be positive always having a watchful eye =D
Yes but its the quality of the magic, not quantity. Hahaha.
I was going to ask, Ana's following a similar path as Claudette. So why wouldn't it have a good chance of developing once it gets free of the Islands?
Man i must be a wizard lol sorry i just had to...now back to weather
It would be the first CATL Category 5 since Isabel, everyone of them since Isabel have been Caribbean and Gulf trackers. HWRF as usual, but rarely ever with the GFDL, makes it also a Category 5.
00Z
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