Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.
Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.
The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).
Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.
Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.
It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.
Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.
Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.
A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.
I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 — Blog Index
first surfing fail. bill, please don't fail me
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N76W...APPROACHING THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS."
I do not remember any previous NHC report who calls it "midlle level". Moreover, in satelite it appears a few more west, between Claudette, Ana and at the door of GOM.
I don't know why you guys are calling a florida hit doomcasting when the left side of the cone would be a very, very serious event for New England. A small shift west would indicate a potential disaster.
Look at the steering map...The weakness is just to the North of it and it is having an affect on it...its not you having a difference of opinion that bothers me its that whenever someone says something that disagrees with you you call them a ___caster of some sort and call them names people are going to take offense to that
Heya Chief,,they always say,..beware the Tail of the Hurricane the Next Day..eh?
better add beware the Trof left behing by da Tropical Storm/Gulf Screamer..
Seems a Lil Trof from Claudette has found the sweet spot.
A Kink in da forecast as they might say..LOL
Harrison/Jackson Counties are under a Flash Flood Warning... my house faces north and if I look out the front window it looks black! Out the back it's still fluffy white clouds. Lots of thunder booming though.
I'm going to start flagging posts that use the term _____caster. It's getting old.
made with sumo.fi browser paint.
Bill's track has shifted slightly west, and if the models continue to shift west, the NHC will make larger west shifts in the track. The Leewards and ENTIRE East Coast should watch the progress of Bill. Still going only WNW, and going a little faster.
I am very glad the maps and graphics I made helped out those who did not want to go dig out all of the info.
ana is a she, never had a coc
I said New England, Florida will not have any impact, trust me, I'm not a wishcaster. I've been saying this has a possibility of being a Northeast storm, or at least swiping New England like Edouard in 1996.
agree with you 100%
You tell them! Seriously though, you're right. After Claudette forming from what was a cluster of nothing for days previous and of course they kept their little yellow circle around it all that time and then VOILA! It happened...we got Claudette. I certainly don't doubt, for the most part, the NHC competency but it seems funny that after all this time many tend to underestimate the potential for tropical development. This time of year, this area of the Atlantic/Gulf, ANYTHING is possible. Charley, Katrina, Camille, Wilma, Rita, blah, blah, blah. Need I say more?
Thank You so much very nice pictures.... Also great info
Taco :0)
Hehe... never say never... it is possible. Unfortunately, your area will typically experience a lesser amount of rainfall during an El Nino year so it might be tricky and variables will have to be setup just right for that to happen.
yeah that i agree with ;)
I have been watching this all day and asking that same question
You sure did good call Senior Chief lol
I hope you're wrong. I'll stick with the fish for the moment. No offense.
(laughs) Did you not see what Dr.Masters said about Florida? Rough waves and rip currents. That will kill a few people up along the entire east coast. Bill is going to be strong, and close enough for states like Florida,North Carolina and Maine to feel the effects.
Camille 40 years ago,,Gulf Screamers,..literally around Like Mosquitos.
A Cat 4 In the Making awaiting trofs,and Tracks a shifting like Bourbon Street Pimps.., and folks A waffling Like 9yr Old's after Funnel Cake.
2009 May just yet wack us with surprises Weekly Now,,
I think they're confusing each other. Strange.
That would make you a flagcaster.
40' something year olds after funnel cake! my fav!
saw this a little earlier but was quoted the last advisory on claudette when i mentioned it. Seems my eyes may have not deceived me and something has been left behind ??
I love how everyone keeps pointing this out as if it is some big surprise. This is what is forecast, and has been forecast for a while.
wait, are you two referring to remnant left behind by Claudette? What gives?
OMG lol
Viewing: 1701 - 1751
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 — Blog Index